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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 21st Jan 2023, 10:43
  #13741 (permalink)  

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Just reactivate the Flying Tigers as a ground force & be done with it!
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Old 21st Jan 2023, 10:54
  #13742 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by _Agrajag_
There are end user agreements in place. These stop arms designed by one country from being sent to another country without agreement. Germany owns the end user agreements made with all states that have Leopards. None of them can send Leopards to Ukraine without Germany's consent.

Same goes for almost everything else. If the UK had, for example, Abrams M1s then we couldn't send them to Ukraine without agreement from the US.
Welll they can send them without consent, Germany cannot physically stop them. Obviously maintenance will become an issue.
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Old 21st Jan 2023, 11:03
  #13743 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by B Fraser
The point of NATO is that the member states do the right thing when called upon. This does not apply in the current situation but would Germany stand up if Estonia were to be invaded ? It doesn't look like they would. Germany's membership should be on the agenda at the next meeting. I'm not advocating kicking them out as having a useless tw@t inside the tent is slightly better than having a useless tw@t outside the tent however they need to be put under the spotlight.

What's next, "we won't count our tanks until the Americans count theirs" ? I heard an excuse on Radio 4 that this is in part due to 39-45. That's almost beyond living memory FFS.
I just read in a German magazine this morning, that the unlamented ex-minister Lambrecht, issued a diktat about one week ago forbidding any up-to-date accounting of tanks. The "explanation " given for this was that having an accurate number that could be produced, might be taken to mean that delivery was being considered !

Honestly this is nonsense that I can't understand. If I were in any kind of responsibility in the Defence Ministry for major armaments, I would have a daily running total om my PC of operational tanks, those in maintenance, storage , for sale or being scrapped. and obviously be able to produce this within a very short time if required.
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Old 21st Jan 2023, 11:09
  #13744 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by peter we
Welll they can send them without consent, Germany cannot physically stop them. Obviously maintenance will become an issue.
Perhaps not. I wonder if even Scholz would feel he could withstand the anger and scorn if pictures of tanks in workshops were juxtaposed with front-line fighting and some purple prose about the heroic Ukrainians battling against the odds. Other countries like Canada, Australia might also be willing to send spares since they can't send tanks. One has too remember , it is not only most of NATO against him, but also his two coalition partners criticising him rather bitterly.

Last edited by Tartiflette Fan; 21st Jan 2023 at 12:35.
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Old 21st Jan 2023, 11:15
  #13745 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by peter we
Welll they can send them without consent, Germany cannot physically stop them. Obviously maintenance will become an issue.

That's one problem. Germany could choose to stop the supply of all spares. Could also impose other sanctions on any country that chose to do this I believe. Overall it would be far better if Germany would just stop farting about and agree to send them,
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Old 21st Jan 2023, 11:56
  #13746 (permalink)  
 
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End User certificates play an important role in preventing arms ending up with hostile groups. To simply ignore them, however well intentioned, would be illegal and set a very bad precedent. The way forward must be to put overwhelming political pressure on Germany to get off the fence.
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Old 21st Jan 2023, 12:01
  #13747 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Video Mixdown
The way forward must be to put overwhelming political pressure on Germany Scholz to get off the fence.
Fixed it for you. The only other Party in parliament who opposes are the Nazis AfD and the communists Lefts, both rather small parties. The rest of the coalition as well as the biggest Opposition party endorse/demand deliveries.
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Old 21st Jan 2023, 12:15
  #13748 (permalink)  
 
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There was a suggestion last year by Rheinmetal to send older Leopard 1 to Ukraine. Issue at the time was reportedly the reluctance amongst NATO members to supply the 105mm ammo from stocks. Seems it may be easier now to get that ammo released? There is less advanced tech on the huge stocks of Leo 1 and ex USA M60 tanks. Send these until the Leo 2/Abrams politics is resolved.
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Old 21st Jan 2023, 12:26
  #13749 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by B Fraser
The point of NATO is that the member states do the right thing when called upon. This does not apply in the current situation but would Germany stand up if Estonia were to be invaded ? It doesn't look like they would. Germany's membership should be on the agenda at the next meeting. I'm not advocating kicking them out as having a useless tw@t inside the tent is slightly better than having a useless tw@t outside the tent however they need to be put under the spotlight.

What's next, "we won't count our tanks until the Americans count theirs" ? I heard an excuse on Radio 4 that this is in part due to 39-45. That's almost beyond living memory FFS.
It's reassuring to see that thGermany is competing with the UK for lies. Pistorious said "Germany is not blocking the supply of tanks" er.......who is it then?
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Old 21st Jan 2023, 12:39
  #13750 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Kent Based
There was a suggestion last year by Rheinmetal to send older Leopard 1 to Ukraine. Issue at the time was reportedly the reluctance amongst NATO members to supply the 105mm ammo from stocks. Seems it may be easier now to get that ammo released? There is less advanced tech on the huge stocks of Leo 1 and ex USA M60 tanks. Send these until the Leo 2/Abrams politics is resolved.
Last week Rheinmetall said that it would be 2024 before it could recondition fully older Leo's ( 88 IIRC ) even with an immediate order .

Originally Posted by Timmy Tomkins
It's reassuring to see that thGermany is competing with the UK for lies.
???????????????

Last edited by Tartiflette Fan; 21st Jan 2023 at 16:53.
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Old 21st Jan 2023, 12:46
  #13751 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Timmy Tomkins
It's reassuring to see that thGermany is competing with the UK for lies. Pistorious said "Germany is not blocking the supply of tanks" er.......who is it then?
Pardon my rant.
It seems that the preferred breakfast dish at that meeting was “Waffles”. Stacks and stacks of them smothered in a lot of sweet syrupy talk.

Not in any way reminiscent of Churchill’s “ACTION THIS DAY” approach to a serious problem.

Rant over.

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Old 21st Jan 2023, 13:27
  #13752 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Kent Based
There was a suggestion last year by Rheinmetal to send older Leopard 1 to Ukraine. Issue at the time was reportedly the reluctance amongst NATO members to supply the 105mm ammo from stocks. Seems it may be easier now to get that ammo released? There is less advanced tech on the huge stocks of Leo 1 and ex USA M60 tanks. Send these until the Leo 2/Abrams politics is resolved.
Leo 1 in a way makes sense logistics wise, the Gepard is built on a Leo 1 Chassis.

As mentioned earlier, the M60’s were apparently disposed off.
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Old 21st Jan 2023, 13:37
  #13753 (permalink)  
 
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Send them all of our Challenger 2s. Their purpose was ultimately to kill Russian armour in the European theatre. Let them do what comes naturally.

Or does the store-man’s mantra of “you can’t have someone else might want it” hold sway.

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Old 21st Jan 2023, 13:44
  #13754 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by GlobalNav
Probably realistic advice, but why the h*ll can't we give UKR the means to erase that threat?
Interesting that the original desire by many of us for more material support to the UKR is finally getting belated traction.
Timing is such an important factor.
And therein lies the rub, it’s a tragic problem for the Ukrainians who are losing thousands of people due to the Wests inability to provide long range weapons, Russia has learnt to place their stockpiles and railheads just out of range of Ukraines current artillery systems.
if we had given them the ability to strike deep behind the front on Ukrainian territory the talk of withdrawing would be a moot point.

In a way it makes me feel like Germany and partially the West are hanging them out to dry at the moment of potential victory.

​​​​​​…

Last edited by NutLoose; 21st Jan 2023 at 14:01.
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Old 21st Jan 2023, 13:47
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Originally Posted by Arty Fufkin
Send them all of our Challenger 2s. Their purpose was ultimately to kill Russian armour in the European theatre. Let them do what comes naturally.

Or does the store-man’s mantra of “you can’t have someone else might want it” hold sway.
And you are going to replace the Challenger 2 with what? You do realise that the Challenger 3 is simply an updated version of our current Challenger 2 tanks, NOT new builds, or are you intending to leave the British Army weapons wise on par with the Vatican City guard?
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Old 21st Jan 2023, 13:56
  #13756 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Timmy Tomkins
It's reassuring to see that thGermany is competing with the UK for lies. Pistorious said "Germany is not blocking the supply of tanks" er.......who is it then?
What lies are you referring to and why is Germany now waiting for someone to count their tanks ? Why is Poland giving Germany a verbal bollocking ?
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Old 21st Jan 2023, 13:59
  #13757 (permalink)  
 
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Nothing initially. A fairly sensible gamble unless you can really foresee the uk going it alone against a near peer adversary within the 10 years it would take to buy an off the shelf replacement. Poland is purchasing/ license building 1000 Korean K2s.
Why hold on to 150 Challenger 2s to convert them to Challenger 3, to maybe deter Russian armour in 5 years time when those same Challenger 2s can wrap up said Russian armour this spring?
It looks nice having a park full of tanks, but if you aren’t prepared to use them when needed incase you loose them, when will you ever use them?
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Old 21st Jan 2023, 14:08
  #13758 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Video Mixdown
End User certificates play an important role in preventing arms ending up with hostile groups. To simply ignore them, however well intentioned, would be illegal and set a very bad precedent. The way forward must be to put overwhelming political pressure on Germany to get off the fence.
Cancelling future military contracts may put a squeeze on Germany via industry.

https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/str...anzer-101.html
Translation:

​​​​​​​The pressure on Chancellor Scholz in the tank debate is growing: In the tagesschau24 interview, FDP defense politician Strack-Zimmermann criticized procrastination. "If you want to deliver, you should deliver." SPD faction leader Mützenich campaigned for reason instead of "sniffing". In the discussion about the delivery of "Leopard 2" lancers, the pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the newly sworn Minister of Defense Boris Pistorius is increasing - also from the own ranks of the traffic light coalition. The government acts despondently, said the FDP defense politician Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann in the tagesschau24 interview - and thus renewed her criticism. The Western world is waiting for Germany to make decisions, for Germany to lead. But the federal government is waiting for the pressure to increase and only then "do you get going," says the chairman of the Defense Committee. If you want to deliver, you should deliver, she said with regard to the requests of Poland, which wants to hand over "Leopard" tanks to Kiev, but are still waiting for German approval.

9 minutes

"Who wants to deliver should deliver," Chairman of the Defense Committee, Strack-Zimmermann

Tagesschau24 3:00 pm, 2/21/023

Strack-Zimmermann hopes for Pistorius Strack-Zimmermann hopes that the new Minister of Defense Boris Pistorius will "dissolve the shackles" and make the decision to lay the tank. If you do not want to deliver the "Leopard" tank, then you have to explain to the Allies and Ukraine why Germany rejects this instead of waiting "degenerately". "We have tanks, we should deliver them and should stand by Ukraine and not open another argumentative battlefield," stressed the FDP politician. Whoever subordinates to her, first the tanks would come and then the troops, argue deeply dubiously. Under international law, Germany can supply Ukraine with material and thus stand by Ukraine.

01/2023

Military aid to Ukraine

Other weapons, but no "Leopard" tanks

There is still no permission for "Leopard 2" deliveries. First, the German stocks are checked.

Göring-Eckardt: Strengthen Ukraine militarily Bundestag Vice President Katrin Göring-Eckardt joined the criticism of Strack-Zimmermann. "I would have liked the German government to have cleared the way for the delivery of 'Leopard' ancers as early as this week," she told the newspapers of the Funke Mediengruppe. "These are urgently needed in Ukraine." Ukraine defends not only its own country, "but also our freedom," emphasized Göring-Eckardt. Lindner: Pistorius should examine further aid Federal Finance Minister Christian Lindner said more cautiously. He called on Defense Minister Pistorius to examine further German aid. "However, a new Minister of Defense is also a new opportunity for Germany to examine what we can still do to support Ukraine in its fight for peace and freedom," Lindner said. He did not show what concrete aid he meant.

Commentary

01/2023

Ramstein Conference on Ukraine

It's not just about main battle tanks

At the conference in Ramstein, no decision was made on the delivery of "Leopard" lancers.

Mützenich: Reason instead of "sniffing" SPD faction leader Rolf Mützenich, on the other hand, stood behind Chancellor Scholz - and criticized Strack-Zimmermann. "Mrs. Strack-Zimmermann and others talk to us into a military conflict," Mützenich told the dpa news agency. The same people who demanded going it alone with heavy main battle tanks today would scream for planes or troops tomorrow. "A policy in times of war in Europe is not made in the style of indignation rituals or with a breath of freshness, but with clarity and reason," says the SPD politician. Security policy is not limited to arms deliveries, emphasized the SPD faction leader. Close coordination with the military world power USA and the attempt to involve the rising regulatory power China is essential for a resilient end to the war in Ukraine. Scholz has lived up to both demands since the beginning of the Russian attack on Ukraine.

01/2023

Delivery of main battle tanks

Pistorius wants to check "Leopard" stocks

Germany "do not block a decision," said Defense Minister Pistorius in Ramstein.

Pistorius wants to check stocks At the meeting of the Ukraine contact group at the US base Ramstein, no decision was made on Friday to deliver "Leopard" peds to Ukraine. The new Minister of Defense Pistorius initially ordered an examination of the stocks for a possible delivery to Ukraine. Previously, Poland and other EU and NATO states had agreed to provide the Ukrainian army with "Leopard" tanks from German production. For this, however, the federal government would have to give the green light. Kiev has long been calling for the delivery of Western battle tanks.

06/15/2021
.
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Old 21st Jan 2023, 14:26
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Sums it up really



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Old 21st Jan 2023, 14:39
  #13760 (permalink)  
 
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Us will agree to other countries providing F16, something I believe the Nederland has said they are willing to do.


More smoking in Russia

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