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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Old 30th Mar 2022, 13:47
  #3741 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Geriaviator
He's been there for days, as has the US Rivet Joint and RAF Sentry along the Poland/Ukraine border, and the US Guardrail over Lithuania, The tankers are there most of the time though I've noticed a fighter lit up only once presumably when he was refuelling. Maybe the EC aircraft show up because they want to be seen, maybe it's because of the busy traffic passing their orbits. Good to see them, one hopes they are gathering zillobytes of dara.
The RAF Airseeker R1 is there but not the RAF Sentry.
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Old 30th Mar 2022, 14:55
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
They are trying to discover who suddenly annexed numerous states from the Federal Republic of Germany and renamed them East Gwermany
I tried saying that - Gwermany - but used the German pronunciation of w. I ended up with something that sounded like gewehrmany. Gewehr in German means gun.
East Gun Many.
That would be Baltimore, as far as I can tell.
Back on topic: the eyes in the sky are a pretty important mission, and I suspect are providing info that ends up being tactically useful.
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Old 30th Mar 2022, 16:58
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
I tried saying that - Gwermany - but used the German pronunciation of w. I ended up with something that sounded like gewehrmany. Gewehr in German means gun.
East Gun Many.
That would be Baltimore, as far as I can tell.
Back on topic: the eyes in the sky are a pretty important mission, and I suspect are providing info that ends up being tactically useful.
Lord Haw Haw radio propagandist used an interesting pronunciation of Germany , they opened their radio torments with “ Germany Calling “
A variation that might be of historic interest . No links as per roe .
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Old 30th Mar 2022, 17:00
  #3744 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Geriaviator
He's been there for days, as has the US Rivet Joint and RAF Sentry along the Poland/Ukraine border, and the US Guardrail over Lithuania, The tankers are there most of the time though I've noticed a fighter lit up only once presumably when he was refuelling. Maybe the EC aircraft show up because they want to be seen, maybe it's because of the busy traffic passing their orbits. Good to see them, one hopes they are gathering zillobytes of dara.
At one point earlier in the week there were 3 RC-135Ws, two E-3s, an E-8 and a Swedish Gulfstream, as well as the Guardrails and an EP-3E. All visible on ASDB. They certainly want them to be seen
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Old 30th Mar 2022, 18:10
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A depressing report in The Guardian

"Putin’s approval ratings surged in March to levels not seen in five years as the war in Ukraine enters its second month, according to an independent survey. According to the Levada Center, Putin’s job approval grew to 83% in March from 71% in February. The last time Putin reached similar approval ratings was in 2017."

Last edited by Senior Pilot; 30th Mar 2022 at 20:40. Reason: Post copied to other thread
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Old 30th Mar 2022, 19:21
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As for tankers, it is interesting to see that two KC-46A's are practising racetracks over Poland. Some relief for the KC-135's and KC-10A's presumably.
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Old 30th Mar 2022, 19:59
  #3747 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
"Putin’s approval ratings surged in March to levels not seen in five years as the war in Ukraine enters its second month, according to an independent survey. According to the Levada Center, Putin’s job approval grew to 83% in March from 71% in February. The last time Putin reached similar approval ratings was in 2017."
but do you believe that?

Do you believe that even if it's accurate that people were giving truthful responses?

What kind of response would you give if calling it a "war" could get you several years in prison?

What kind of response would you give if all you could read or watch was controlled by the state?

What does "independent" mean in this case?
The Levada Center is a Russian independent, nongovernmental polling and sociological research organization. It is named after its founder, the first Russian professor of sociology Yuri Levada.
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Old 30th Mar 2022, 20:14
  #3748 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
"Putin’s approval ratings surged in March to levels not seen in five years as the war in Ukraine enters its second month, according to an independent survey. According to the Levada Center, Putin’s job approval grew to 83% in March from 71% in February. The last time Putin reached similar approval ratings was in 2017."
1 Given the control enforced on all media, how is any official survey carried out in Russia believably independent?
2. Since the population have little or no access to any version of events except Putins, even a genuine survey would be invalid.
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Old 30th Mar 2022, 20:17
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People have no independent sources of information anymore. Just government media. Even BBC, Deutsche Welle and such are considered to be "hostile organisations" now or how they call it officially. The Russians will make up their minds but it will take some time.
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Old 30th Mar 2022, 20:24
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Originally Posted by Video Mixdown
1 Given the control enforced on all media, how is any official survey carried out in Russia believably independent?
2. Since the population have little or no access to any version of events except Putins, even a genuine survey would be invalid.
Well, if we take it as given that the Russians employ troll farms (yes, they do, a few visit PPRuNe now and again) it is not beyond reason that a few of those trolls are less than pleased with Vlad.
They do do have access to the web, or a lot of it.
They'll be able (I suspect) to find ways to disperse "over the {fire}wall information" among various nodes that public do have access to, and private nodes, and thus pass what they are seeing to (some) others.
From that point the viral spread of information (telephone, telegraph, tell a friend) takes care of the rest, just a bit slower than via Twit-her.
While most trolls will be 'politically reliable' (and not do the above) in only takes a few not to be so reliable (and come on, how do you get 100% reliability in anyone?).
That is but one way that info from "over the {fire} wall" gets out to the general public.

Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 30th Mar 2022 at 20:44.
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Old 30th Mar 2022, 21:10
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"Demoralised Russian soldiers in Ukraine have accidentally shot down their own aircraft, sabotaged their own kit, and refused to carry out orders, a British spy chief will reveal."

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-w...eveal-12578490
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Old 30th Mar 2022, 22:15
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The pure stupidity of the Russian military is coming to the fore, nothing like not being prepared, I would even bet they have been hunting the wildlife to supplement their diet in a wildlife rich radioactive zone.


Seven busses packed with Russian soldiers suffering from Acute Radiation Syndrome arrived to #Belarus from the #Ukrainian#Chernobyl exclusion zone. Source: member of public council of state #Ukraine agency of exclusion zone Yaroslav Yemelyanenko via Unian news agency.
Daily Telegraph:
Russian soldiers who seized Chernobyl were on a “suicide mission” as they churned up radioactive material when they entered the nuclear zone last month, workers at the site said. ...
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Old 30th Mar 2022, 22:50
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
The pure stupidity of the Russian military is coming to the fore, nothing like not being prepared, I would even bet they have been hunting the wildlife to supplement their diet in a wildlife rich radioactive zone.

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/stat...78005469847574
This does not surprise me. This reading is from an indoor location taken when I was inside the exclusion zone in 2019. They were much higher nearer the red forest.

I have read that many younger Russians have never heard of Chernobyl or the disaster, though I suspect that is equally the case closer to home.



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Old 30th Mar 2022, 22:52
  #3754 (permalink)  
 
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Finland discuses joining NATO, talk about Putins Folly, producing exactly what he was working against.


”Finnish President Sauli Niinistö said that on Monday he and Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg discussed the "principles and procedures involved" in the military alliance's acceptance of new members.”
Finland's president talks with Nato chief about new member process
President Sauli Niinistö spoke by telephone with Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on Monday.
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Old 30th Mar 2022, 23:11
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“Russian” soldiers hitch hiked home… 300 of them! I do hope they survive and are not treated as deserters.

Today, about 300 soldiers (mostly ethnic Ossetians) from the Russian military base returned to South Ossetia of their own free will, because they thought they had been left for dead during a special operation in Ukraine. The former president of South Ossetia called not to draw hasty conclusions and not to accuse the guys of desertion, but to carefully investigate the situation when soldiers are sent to combat operations without full outfit and stocks of weapons,
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Old 30th Mar 2022, 23:38
  #3756 (permalink)  
 
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Sounds like a bit of a sell out?

The Moscow TimesChief Russian negotiator Vladimir Medinsky claimed that the Ukrainian delegation expressed readiness to meet Russia's demands during peace talks in Istanbul on Tuesday. These demands include:
  • Ukraine agreeing not to join NATO and to adopt a bloc-free status;
  • Ukraine agreeing not to acquire or develop nuclear weapons and weapons of mass destruction;
  • Ukraine agreeing not to deploy foreign military bases and contingents;
  • and Ukraine agreeing to hold military drills only with the consent of guarantor states, including Russia.
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Old 31st Mar 2022, 01:35
  #3757 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Sounds like a bit of a sell out?
Or fake news. What does Tucker have to say about it?
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Old 31st Mar 2022, 06:38
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Let us bring words of comfort to our friends in the Ukraine. Ancient words, words that should be carved in blood on Putin's forehead. they are of course the aphorism from General Sun-Tzu's Art of War ' If you know your enemy and know yourself you need not fear the result of a hundred battles .If you know yourself but not your enemy, for every victory you will suffer a defeat. If you know neither you will ALWAYS be beaten.

And so it plays out yet again.....
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Old 31st Mar 2022, 07:02
  #3759 (permalink)  
 
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  • Ukraine agreeing not to join NATO and to adopt a bloc-free status;
  • Ukraine agreeing not to acquire or develop nuclear weapons and weapons of mass destruction;
  • Ukraine agreeing not to deploy foreign military bases and contingents;
  • and Ukraine agreeing to hold military drills only with the consent of guarantor states, including Russia.
I suspect the final terms will look quite like that

Ukraine isn't a member of NATO and has already said that may be the price they have to pay, they don't have N weapons and couldn't easily develop them, they currently have no foreign bases and the Russians are talking about "guarantor states" note the plural here.

The big question is the territorial one - I could se Ukraine giving up the Donbass "republics" but that's about all
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Old 31st Mar 2022, 07:34
  #3760 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by macmp419
This does not surprise me. This reading is from an indoor location taken when I was inside the exclusion zone in 2019. They were much higher nearer the red forest.

I have read that many younger Russians have never heard of Chernobyl or the disaster, though I suspect that is equally the case closer to home.


I’m a Class 1 Radiation worker and I would not be hanging around there for fun…

Just 33 hours there would exceed the permitted annual dose under EU regulations.

In my company we would be limited to about 1 hour and 40 minutes exposure to that level of radiation.

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