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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 20th Jan 2023, 19:16
  #13721 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by _Agrajag_
I can't say that this comes as a surprise. Hungary has been moving away from the ideals of NATO (and the EU for that matter) for a while. What puzzles me is that the views of many Hungarians (perhaps a majority) are at odds with those of Viktor Orbán, yet he remains in power and has been emulating Putin in turning Hungary into an autocracy. Seems strange for a country that suffered when under the thumb of the Soviet Union to put up with this.
At best elections in Hungary under Orban could be described as "free but not fair". Most of the population live in the country and only see Orban propaganda, rely on Orban money (paid out by EU, with great sadness), and obediently vote Orban. Budapest is an electoral minority. And that description of "free" is an at best description.

Just like Erdogan in Turkey.

And both funded by the Kremlin.
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Old 20th Jan 2023, 19:41
  #13722 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by _Agrajag_
Used to be standard to have detonators rigged in anything sensitive.
I did a walkaround once in a B17 and the guide said that's what the two red buttons on the glareshield are for. I think he said it destroyed the radios






(...and sorry for the aviation content! )




sort of reminds me of this:

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Old 20th Jan 2023, 20:16
  #13723 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sue Vêtements
I did a walkaround once in a B17 and the guide said that's what the two red buttons on the glareshield are for. I think he said it destroyed the radios
Near-identical to the system we had. The detonators were a bit like shotgun shells. They weren't normally installed in the kit in peacetime. Still had to do the checks to make sure anything coming in for servicing didn't have them fitted. I believe the charges were designed so that the blast was contained inside the equipment. Never actually saw one, only where they were located inside the kit.


Originally Posted by Sue Vêtements
(...and sorry for the aviation content! )
Relax. This is the Mil Aviation section!
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Old 20th Jan 2023, 20:17
  #13724 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by _Agrajag_
Used to be standard to have detonators rigged in anything sensitive. Goes right back to the earliest airborne radars I think. Certainly kit I worked on in the 70's and 80's had the capability to fit detonators for this purpose. No idea if modern kit has the same capability. Be surprised if it didn't, though.
Enough kit fell into the wrong hands in WW2 (on all sides) to demonstrate a persons desire to survive is greater than worrying about their kit falling into the wrong hands, detonators or no detonators. That's if you are still alive to detonate it of course.
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Old 20th Jan 2023, 20:57
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Originally Posted by henra
In Ramstein Air Base itself ~9000 US staff are working/stationed.
It is the whole Kaiserlautern area with Kaiserslautern Army Depot,Daenner-casern, Kleber-casern, Tank casern Kaiserslautern, Sembach, Pirmasens and a few more installations where some 50.000 US troops are stationed.
Quoting from this article.

Ramstein Air Base - Allgemeine Daten

"Als größte Einrichtung der US Air Force außerhalb der Vereinigten Staaten umfasst das Gebiet 1400 Hektar und wird von rund 53.000 amerikanischen Soldaten und Angehörigen bewohnt. Die Fläche gehört allerdings der Bundesrepublik Deutschland."

https://praxistipps.focus.de/ramstei...-gelten_145238
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Old 20th Jan 2023, 21:18
  #13726 (permalink)  
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The countries that are armed with the Leopard-2 have agreed that they can start training courses for Ukrainian tank crews to master the Leopard-2. Ukrainian Defense Minister Reznikov said this in an exclusive comment to LIGA.net

https://news.liga.net/ua/politics/ne...ryv-po-leopard
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Old 20th Jan 2023, 21:37
  #13727 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Quoting from this article.

Ramstein Air Base - Allgemeine Daten

https://www.acq.osd.mil/eie/Download...ort%20FY15.pdf
Page 200: Active Duty 8225 in 2014.
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Old 20th Jan 2023, 21:51
  #13728 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC
The countries that are armed with the Leopard-2 have agreed that they can start training courses for Ukrainian tank crews to master the Leopard-2. Ukrainian Defense Minister Reznikov said this in an exclusive comment to LIGA.net

https://news.liga.net/ua/politics/ne...ryv-po-leopard
Smart move. It had to be done anyway and it ratchets up the pressure on Scholz. It makes it clear to him that Poland et al are very likely to ignore his veto when the time comes, yet also gives him time to change his position and avoid confirming the view that many people have of him as a dithering coward. One German headline today called him " the personification of .an evasive manoeuvre " (Der Kanzler bleibt ein Mensch gewordenes Ausweichmanöver“)

EDIT: Just how pathetic does the German government want to portray itself as being ?Today Pistorius said that they would have to do an accounting of the tanks whilst considering their position. Seriously now, after nearly a year, going to an international conference with pre-warning what will be discussed, and the Defence Minister says he doesn't have the figures on tank availability ?

Last edited by Tartiflette Fan; 20th Jan 2023 at 22:40.
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Old 20th Jan 2023, 22:32
  #13729 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by henra
https://www.acq.osd.mil/eie/Download...ort%20FY15.pdf
Page 200: Active Duty 8225 in 2014.
I'm not disputing it, just wanting to show I didn't invent the numbers. As I also noted, the figure is far higher than I would have guessed myself.
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Old 20th Jan 2023, 22:52
  #13730 (permalink)  
 
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Old 21st Jan 2023, 01:36
  #13731 (permalink)  
 
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Probably realistic advice, but why the h*ll can't we give UKR the means to erase that threat?
Interesting that the original desire by many of us for more material support to the UKR is finally getting belated traction.
Timing is such an important factor.
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Old 21st Jan 2023, 03:25
  #13732 (permalink)  
 
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Are the Russians (Wagner) aiming for a Bakhmut bellybutton to tie off the final knot, a Bakhmut stitch Wall, and by so doing hoping to allow Putin some temporary respite and some face? (Oh, and his first land corridor like the Turks want in Syria.)

And are the US negotiators aware of this and working towards it? Will the new influx of weapons prove to be a seal along the new 'wall', providing equal and opposite military pressure rather than actual battlefield use?

Last edited by jolihokistix; 21st Jan 2023 at 06:56.
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Old 21st Jan 2023, 05:33
  #13733 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Just how pathetic does the German government want to portray itself as being ?Today Pistorius said that they would have to do an accounting of the tanks whilst considering their position. Seriously now, after nearly a year, going to an international conference with pre-warning what will be discussed, and the Defence Minister says he doesn't have the figures on tank availability ?
The point of NATO is that the member states do the right thing when called upon. This does not apply in the current situation but would Germany stand up if Estonia were to be invaded ? It doesn't look like they would. Germany's membership should be on the agenda at the next meeting. I'm not advocating kicking them out as having a useless tw@t inside the tent is slightly better than having a useless tw@t outside the tent however they need to be put under the spotlight.

What's next, "we won't count our tanks until the Americans count theirs" ? I heard an excuse on Radio 4 that this is in part due to 39-45. That's almost beyond living memory FFS.
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Old 21st Jan 2023, 07:17
  #13734 (permalink)  
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Case for Abrams vs Leopard for Ukraine.

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Old 21st Jan 2023, 07:40
  #13735 (permalink)  

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Originally Posted by ORAC
Case for Abrams vs Leopard for Ukraine.
Best digested after reading the other branch of discussion from Hertling's tweet, where actual field mechanics agree with him.

Appreciate the drive and resolve, dead serious and verbatim no joke, yet the amount of 'our side' bias has thickened recently a lot. That's from someone who's been now repeatedly moderated and rightly so for being too loud about the victim/aggressor stance (my take).
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Old 21st Jan 2023, 07:54
  #13736 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Case for Abrams vs Leopard for Ukraine.
While this may be a tiny bit exaggerated towards the opposite direction I never understood this seemingly massive difference between the M1 and the Leo2. In my eyes they are very close and which one is better -if at all- will depend on the individual version. Of which there are numerous. Fuel consumption will depend also on operation condition. From a thermo- dynamics perspective Diesel Engines genereally tend to be better than gas turbines regarding SFC (due to much higher Carnot cycle pressure difference). That said in the optimum operating range there is not that much difference, it is more at partial load where gas turbines tend to really suffer (lower rpm significantly further reduce the combustion pressure thereby hurting Carnot cycle pressure difference). That is why the APU helps so much. Keeping the big turbine running close to idle just for energy supply is tremenduously inefficient. But at the end that will make no operationally really critical difference between the M1 and the Leo.
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Old 21st Jan 2023, 08:28
  #13737 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC
The countries that are armed with the Leopard-2 have agreed that they can start training courses for Ukrainian tank crews to master the Leopard-2. Ukrainian Defense Minister Reznikov said this in an exclusive comment to LIGA.net

https://news.liga.net/ua/politics/ne...ryv-po-leopard
Sorry , but why ?
I realise I’ll be shouted down , but the implication in training them to use the Leopard is that they’ll be getting the tanks quite soon & I don’t see that happening.
I concur that they SHOULD get them but there’s no sign of a change in German attitude.
As I’m posting , another question : sorry if it’s already been covered & I missed it...
Are they getting all this kit for nothing or will there a massive bill for fighting tyranny along the lines of the one Blighty faced for ‘Lend lease’?
I assume we’re all giving the kit away , is that the case?

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Old 21st Jan 2023, 10:03
  #13738 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Flugzeug A
Sorry , but why ?
In order not to lose time?!
After a decision to send Leopards you will then have to send the future users to at least 2 months of training. Why waste these two months? To help Vlad and his cronies?
It's the right thing to do. And in parallel use the two months to put some pressure on Olaf the Slow. HE is the problem. The vast majority of the rest of the German Government would like to push ahead. Maybe NSA can find some Wirecard or Cum Ex documents in the meantime to accelerate things?!
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Old 21st Jan 2023, 10:18
  #13739 (permalink)  
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Do all NATO countries have tanks?
If Germany is dragging it's heals couldn't a coalition tank force (including German tanks) be sent to Ukraine so that one country cannot be singled out?
My understanding is that most countries use Leopard or Russian armour anyway?
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Old 21st Jan 2023, 10:23
  #13740 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by uxb99
Do all NATO countries have tanks?
If Germany is dragging it's heals couldn't a coalition tank force (including German tanks) be sent to Ukraine so that one country cannot be singled out?
My understanding is that most countries use Leopard or Russian armour anyway?
There are end user agreements in place. These stop arms designed by one country from being sent to another country without agreement. Germany owns the end user agreements made with all states that have Leopards. None of them can send Leopards to Ukraine without Germany's consent.

Same goes for almost everything else. If the UK had, for example, Abrams M1s then we couldn't send them to Ukraine without agreement from the US.
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