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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 25th Jan 2023, 16:59
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Do the Russians actually have an effective weapon against the Leopards? Or is the Leopard virtually untouchable?
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Old 25th Jan 2023, 17:11
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Originally Posted by t43562
It does seem a bit like NATO could do with a standard tank built in numbers in several countries. Something just about affordable to everyone. Even if the US or other nations wanted to have their own special thing ontop of that....
From maintenance point of view it's not an issue they are gettin 2a4 to 2a6's, they are pretty similar. It's the comms, sights, MG's and such that require work. As an example, every nation has its own radios, so in essence everyone strips off their localized kits and equip the Leo's with UKR specific versions to make it all compatible and ready to use.

Bigger issue will be Challys and Abrams, as they need their specifc maintenance and logistics chain (plus ammo on the Chally). I doubt that it is reasonable to establish it all in usual circumstances for anything less than a brigade worth of tanks.
However Ukraine seems to be pretty good at these things, and US has plenty of Abrams so I suppose they could send that brigade. Not so sure about Challys though.
Training (crews, service etc) will be relatively easy to go from soviet tanks to Leos, especially Finland and Poland can help there, they have plenty of experience in that field.
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Old 25th Jan 2023, 17:20
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Originally Posted by rixt
Do the Russians actually have an effective weapon against the Leopards? Or is the Leopard virtually untouchable?
Leos can be killed, no doubt. A lone Leo is just an expensive coffin. It needs it's friends, like IFV's, infantry, artillery and so forth. The word of the day is combimed arms, and that is where the Russkies have been terrible at.

But there are benefits like it's more accurate to a further distance enabling a kill from where a T72 crew is unaware of its presence. Better stabilisation to shoot as you scoot, better sights, better just about everything. There really is a reason for Finland to choose Leos over T90's, not to mention the older models that Finland used to have.

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Old 25th Jan 2023, 17:26
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Originally Posted by Beamr
From maintenance point of view it's not an issue they are getting 2a4 to 2a6's, they are pretty similar. It's the comms, sights, MG's and such that require work. As an example, every nation has its own radios, so in essence everyone strips off their localized kits and equip the Leo's with UKR specific versions to make it all compatible and ready to use.

Bigger issue will be Challys and Abrams, as they need their specifc maintenance and logistics chain (plus ammo on the Chally). I doubt that it is reasonable to establish it all in usual circumstances for anything less than a brigade worth of tanks.
However Ukraine seems to be pretty good at these things, and US has plenty of Abrams so I suppose they could send that brigade. Not so sure about Challys though.
Training (crews, service etc) will be relatively easy to go from soviet tanks to Leos, especially Finland and Poland can help there, they have plenty of experience in that field.
Beamr
I think the Lep 2 pretty much is the standard NATO tank and it is the US/UK/ FR that are on the outside. I do not envy the Ukrainian supply chain trying to sort this out, though at least Abrams has the same gun as Lep 2, though is quite a complex bit of kit. It will be interesting to see how they get on with it, hopefully very well.

Cheers
Mr Mac
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Old 25th Jan 2023, 17:34
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Originally Posted by Beamr
From maintenance point of view it's not an issue they are gettin 2a4 to 2a6's, they are pretty similar. It's the comms, sights, MG's and such that require work. As an example, every nation has its own radios, so in essence everyone strips off their localized kits and equip the Leo's with UKR specific versions to make it all compatible and ready to use.

Bigger issue will be Challys and Abrams, as they need their specifc maintenance and logistics chain (plus ammo on the Chally). I doubt that it is reasonable to establish it all in usual circumstances for anything less than a brigade worth of tanks.
However Ukraine seems to be pretty good at these things, and US has plenty of Abrams so I suppose they could send that brigade. Not so sure about Challys though.
Training (crews, service etc) will be relatively easy to go from soviet tanks to Leos, especially Finland and Poland can help there, they have plenty of experience in that field.

Exactly my view. Retrofitting comms (provided they can get enough compatible kit) is pretty easy. Ukraine seems adept at coming up with novel technical solutions. Probably better than most nations on the planet at doing this right now. Ukraine has zero experience with operating tanks without autoloaders though. Not going to be easy for them to adapt to the peculiarities of the Challenger 2. A great deal more training will be needed, plus the logistic support issues to solve. All for a bunch of tanks that barely makes a single squadron.

The Leopards are far and away their best bet. Sufficient numbers to be really useful. I still maintain they must have the rest of the combined arms suite. They need Bradleys, Marders etc as well. In bigger numbers. They also need long range, very accurate, artillery. Key for Ukraine is knocking out Russian logistic supply routes at ranges greater than their current kit. In winter adding a couple of days delay to front line supplies will kill or disable a lot of the Russian troops. Troops don't survive long in cold weather without fuel or food.
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Old 25th Jan 2023, 17:34
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Originally Posted by rixt
Do the Russians actually have an effective weapon against the Leopards? Or is the Leopard virtually untouchable?
rixt
No tank is untouchable. You have to get close if using infantry anti tank weapons, even then you may only disable it. The big threat I was always told when I was in a Tank Regt was air power, as tanks are less lightly armored on top. However it appears that the Russians do not as yet control the air space, and in that case I would be a little more relaxed about that,and Ukrainian infantry seem to work very well with their existing T72, so I would be quite comfortable in that s well. All the tanks being supplied by the West are excellent gun platforms, though I am not sure about the French MBT to be fair.

Cheers
Mr Mac
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Old 25th Jan 2023, 17:42
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Originally Posted by Mr Mac
Beamr
I think the Lep 2 pretty much is the standard NATO tank and it is the US/UK/ FR that are on the outside. I do not envy the Ukrainian supply chain trying to sort this out, though at least Abrahams has the same gun as Lep 2, though is quite a complex bit of kit. It will be interesting to see how they get on with it, hopefully very well.

Cheers
Mr Mac

You and me both. Going to be a bloody nightmare getting the right ammunition and spares to the right place at the right time. Maybe Ukraine's allies can help by setting up support just over the borders with Poland and Romania? Just having capable logistic support doing the heavy lifting of sorting out the spares and ammunition supply chain as far as the border may help. If they can also sort out third line servicing and maintenance as well that would be a bonus.
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Old 25th Jan 2023, 17:53
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Originally Posted by Mr Mac
Beamr
I think the Lep 2 pretty much is the standard NATO tank and it is the US/UK/ FR that are on the outside. I do not envy the Ukrainian supply chain trying to sort this out, though at least Abrahams has the same gun as Lep 2, though is quite a complex bit of kit. It will be interesting to see how they get on with it, hopefully very well.

Cheers
Mr Mac
that pretty much sums it up, I'd say.
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Old 25th Jan 2023, 18:09
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Originally Posted by t43562
It does seem a bit like NATO could do with a standard tank built in numbers in several countries. Something just about affordable to everyone. Even if the US or other nations wanted to have their own special thing ontop of that....
But...but...but even when things start off as a joint project like the American/German MBT 70, it was not possible to combine the differing requirements/specifications and there was a split: the end result of the joint research was the Abrams and the Leopard. The idea of modularity is highly sought after, but that can't be achieved if the differing framework that partners might require doesn't allow the required space/electrical power generation etc
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Old 25th Jan 2023, 18:19
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Originally Posted by _Agrajag_
You and me both. Going to be a bloody nightmare getting the right ammunition and spares to the right place at the right time. Maybe Ukraine's allies can help by setting up support just over the borders with Poland and Romania? Just having capable logistic support doing the heavy lifting of sorting out the spares and ammunition supply chain as far as the border may help. If they can also sort out third line servicing and maintenance as well that would be a bonus.
Why all the pessimism? Ukraine have been dealing with these issues for many months with all the other vehicles and weapons systems that have been sent, and doing it very well. The presence of these tanks is going to be a major headache right enough - for the Russians.
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Old 25th Jan 2023, 18:23
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Originally Posted by Wokkafans
Spain reportedly will be sending 52 Leopards, at the top end of prior estimates.

Meanwhile:​​​​​

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/statu...7ZRFYIKPnHSWLQ
Wokka, re fighters. In the following YT excerpt from Scholz speaking in the Bundestag just two hours ago , he absolutely rules out fighter aircraft enforcing a no-fly zone, so the obvious corollary of that is no aircraft for Ukraine.

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Old 25th Jan 2023, 18:28
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Originally Posted by ORAC
🙄🙄🙄



The Wagner Group's head, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has demanded that criticism of his fighters should be banned in Russia. In a letter published on Telegram, he complains that media and bloggers are unfairly portraying his recruited convicts as "villains and criminals".
"The Clean Dozen"?
​​​​​​​
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Old 25th Jan 2023, 18:37
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Originally Posted by Mr Mac
Beamr
I think the Lep 2 pretty much is the standard NATO tank and it is the US/UK/ FR that are on the outside. I do not envy the Ukrainian supply chain trying to sort this out, though at least Abrahams has the same gun as Lep 2, though is quite a complex bit of kit. It will be interesting to see how they get on with it, hopefully very well.
Cheers
Mr Mac
Only at the theoretical level as specified in the license agreement. The American cannon has been altered significantly and there is no interchangeability of the gun, but they do use the same ammunition.

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Old 25th Jan 2023, 18:42
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Originally Posted by Video Mixdown
Why all the pessimism? Ukraine have been dealing with these issues for many months with all the other vehicles and weapons systems that have been sent, and doing it very well. The presence of these tanks is going to be a major headache right enough - for the Russians.

Not intended as pessimism. Just seen loads of logistic support nightmares over the years. Far too many. Reducing them gives a huge advantage. The ability of humans to f**k things up by sending the wrong stuff to the wrong place never ceased to surprise me. An example. 280SU, Akrotiri, 1973. Demand put in for some miniature valves to fix some kit. Three weeks later a truck arrived loaded with wooden crates that needed a fork lift to move. Each crate contained a CRT. Some f**kwit in the system had made an error in transcribing the NSN. That error turned a valve that was around an inch long into a CRT that was about 3ft long.

Ukraine is very able and adept at adapting to challenges quickly. I've no doubt that will make this "mix and match" collection of kit work well. Just pisses me off that the simplest option (just letting them have widely used and supported Leopards) took a near-crisis to make happen. Germany should have done what it's belatedly decided to do (after being leant on by many other countries) weeks ago. Hell, they should have initiated it, not fallen into line after being given a good kicking.
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Old 25th Jan 2023, 18:58
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Originally Posted by ACW342
Aviation Content:
Somebody getting stroppy about our RC135 overflying international waters in the Black sea? Psycho 61 & 62 revealing themselves should be a comfort for the crew.
The RAF's Rivet Joints have been accompanied by little friends since a Russian Flanker "released" an AAM in their locale on 29 Sep 2022, as announced in the Commons by Ben Wallace in October Don't always show up on the tracking sites, for the obvious reasons.
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Old 25th Jan 2023, 20:02
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Originally Posted by 212man
except the turret is unmanned and the crew sit in the front.
If the fireworks remain as impressive as with the T6x/7x/8x/9x this won't make the slightest difference regarding the fate of the crew.
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Old 25th Jan 2023, 20:15
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[QUOTE=DuncanDoenitz;11373732]
Originally Posted by ACW342
Aviation Content:
Somebody getting stroppy about our RC135 overflying international waters in the Black sea? Psycho 61 & 62 revealing themselves should be a comfort for the crew.
/QUOTE]

The RAF's Rivet Joints have been accompanied by little friends since a Russian Flanker "released" an AAM in their locale on 29 Sep 2022, as announced in the Commons by Ben Wallace in October Don't always show up on the tracking sites, for the obvious reasons.
I have never seen RC-135s flying over the middle of the Black Sea before, that has been Global Hawk territory until now. There have been Fighter types flying over Eastern Romania regularly, presumably protecting the Intel aircraft that have flown near the coast every day in past months.

It seems that NATO is upping the intelligence gathering, and doing it in a very public way.
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Old 25th Jan 2023, 20:40
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This is From the live Q and A on Sky News today.
How many years do you see the conflict lasting?
As the war in Ukraine approaches a year, the panel are asked how long the conflict could go on for.
Former British Army Colonel Hamish De Bretton Gordon says it is "impossible" to say.

"I think nobody, except the Russians, want it to go on any longer than it needs to be which is why it is so vital that the West give everything they can to ensure Ukraine prevails," he says.
"We have prevented Ukraine from losing now we must enable them to win.
"What does winning look like? I think only the Ukrainian people can tell us."

Ukrainian MP Olena Khomenko adds that Ukrainians "support the peace plan of Volodymyr Zelenskyy" which consists of 10 steps.
"Until these 10 steps are fulfilled we do not agree with any peace talks," she says.
I was ridiculed and insulted on this forum when I said the West was doing enough to prevent Ukraine from losing but didn’t want them to win too quickly.
I really did know what I was talking about. I am not a politician or General, but I do work in Defence at a high level.
It really has been the case, as alluded to - although not specifically referenced - by Hamish.
The West wanted Russia to be ground down, and now they are stepping up, but not so far as to remove their own capabilities as they may soon be needed as Russia will lash out as their reality starts to bite.
Hopefully the West is ready for a fight now, because this conflict is not going to remain inside the lines.
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Old 25th Jan 2023, 20:51
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Originally Posted by Confusious
Doing so would send a weak message to Putin, so very doubtful.
I was thinking more in terms of their survivability. Could be embarrassing if the tanks provided are frittered away without much gain.
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Old 25th Jan 2023, 21:32
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Originally Posted by Baldeep Inminj
Hopefully the West is ready for a fight now, because this conflict is not going to remain inside the lines.
You are repeating this over and over again. But I wonder: With which surplus troops and which surplus arms? The ones Russia deems not required currently for the "Special Military Operation" in Ukraine since it is going so well for them there?
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