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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 22nd Feb 2022, 11:04
  #1141 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by fab777
the Russian public does not have a say, after years of dictatorship.
No, I don't think his stance is anywhere near that solid.
Now, this is Germany, 1939. And yes, we now how Hitler ended, but we also know what happened to the world before that.
Again: In this case not only Putin would end. Mankind would end.
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Old 22nd Feb 2022, 11:06
  #1142 (permalink)  
 
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Germany has stopped the Nord Stream II pipeline permit.
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Old 22nd Feb 2022, 11:08
  #1143 (permalink)  
 
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Putin and Russia are doing what both USSR and USA/NATO have done before.
Not true, USA which are part of NATO have never invaded a Country and forced them to join NATO, The Putin's Russia under the guise of the Soviet Bloc / USSR did exactly that..
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Old 22nd Feb 2022, 11:30
  #1144 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by tartare
Why not just grab them by the nuts and seize every property in Knightsbridge and Belgravia? Shut down exports of every luxury vehicle to Russia, and every luxury consumable, diamonds, high end clothing, the lot. That’d have em squealing quick smart. Every Svetlana would be furious. Not a shot fired.
Amen to that. Also make all Russian nationals persona non grata. Kick the lot of them out, and seize any financial assets they have here.

We also need to have a root and branch investigation as to who has connections with the Russian regime, and the nature of those connections. Starting with Boris and Farage.

Russia has elevated itself from a pain-in-the-ass to full on adversary, and should be treated thus.
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Old 22nd Feb 2022, 11:30
  #1145 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Less Hair
Germany has stopped the Nord Stream II pipeline permit.
Reference?
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Old 22nd Feb 2022, 11:32
  #1146 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by charliegolf
Reference?
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-crisis...val/a-60867443

Ukraine crisis: Germany halts Nord Stream 2 approval
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has said the gas pipeline project cannot go ahead now in these crisis circumstances. He said the approval process has been halted.

I bet Putin didn't see that coming, he thought he had Scholz in his pocket.
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Old 22nd Feb 2022, 11:41
  #1147 (permalink)  
 
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I truly hope that this is just big talks and not an advance coverup for another MH17

FEB 22, 13:35
The DPR does not rule out provocations against passenger aircraft by the Armed Forces of Ukraine

DONETSK, February 22. /TASS/. Intelligence of the People's Militia of the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) has data on the movement of regiments of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which are armed with S-300 and BUK-M1 complexes in the areas of the airports of Kiev, Kharkov and Cherkasy, and therefore do not exclude provocations against passenger aircraft. This was announced on Tuesday by the deputy head of the People's Militia Department of the DPR, Eduard Basurin.

"Our intelligence records the movement of columns of units of Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile regiments, which are armed with S-300 and BUK-M1 complexes, and the occupation of starting positions in the areas of international airports in the cities of Kiev, Kharkov and Cherkassy. We do not exclude a planned provocation against passenger aircraft" , he said.

Basurin added that "against this background, the decision of a number of states to stop air traffic over the territory of Ukraine looks reasonable and prudent, which will help to avoid human casualties and the repetition of tragedies with the crash of civilian airliners."

https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/13804913
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Old 22nd Feb 2022, 11:42
  #1148 (permalink)  
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MOSCOW (AP) — Russia says recognition of independence for areas in east Ukraine extends to territory now held by Ukrainian forces.…
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Old 22nd Feb 2022, 11:48
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https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...yiv/ar-AAU9QJ6

Russia has deployed squads of National Guard enforcers near Ukraine's border with Belarus in what could become an occupation force in Kyiv, as fears grow that Moscow intends to launch a full-scale invasion.

Military analysts closely observing the Russian troop build-up have seen videos which appear to show Rosvgardia [National Guard] units and trucks moving towards the Belarus-Ukraine border.

Rob Lee, an analyst at King's College London, wrote on Twitter:
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Old 22nd Feb 2022, 11:51
  #1150 (permalink)  
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Possible timeline:

Russian forces will now attack the Ukrainian forces along the coast to “liberate” Mariupol and the rest of the Donetsk Oblat at the “request” of their newly recognised government.

Ukranian forces will defend and Russia, invoking their newly signed “friendship” treaties will claim it is a Ukranian attack on the new republics and an act of war and then strike south from Belarus towards Kyiv as a “counter attack” to remove the government and then install a “patriotic” government who will ask for assistance to remove “NATO collaborators” and a purge of the country…
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Old 22nd Feb 2022, 12:05
  #1151 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Possible timeline:

Russian forces will now attack the Ukrainian forces along the coast to “liberate” Mariupol and the rest of the Donetsk Oblat at the “request” of their newly recognised government.

Ukranian forces will defend and Russia, invoking their newly signed “friendship” treaties will claim it is a Ukranian attack on the new republics and an act of war and then strike south from Belarus towards Kyiv as a “counter attack” to remove the government and then install a “patriotic” government who will ask for assistance to remove “NATO collaborators” and a purge of the country…
That sounds very plausible (unfortunately).
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Old 22nd Feb 2022, 12:10
  #1152 (permalink)  
 
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I would imagine that the Ukraine would have a plan in place to counter movements from Belarus. Afghanistan showed the advantages of IED's, cheap, effective and can slow an advance to a crawl.
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Old 22nd Feb 2022, 12:27
  #1153 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
I would imagine that the Ukraine would have a plan in place to counter movements from Belarus. Afghanistan showed the advantages of IED's, cheap, effective and can slow an advance to a crawl.
Plus the Russian forces not being equipped with many blast protected transport vehicles and thus being very vulnerable to this. Add snipers left and right to this.
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Old 22nd Feb 2022, 12:44
  #1154 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by henra
Plus the Russian forces not being equipped with many blast protected transport vehicles and thus being very vulnerable to this. Add snipers left and right to this.
If you're trying to demonise your neighbour and turn them into an enemy, that all helps the narrative.
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Old 22nd Feb 2022, 12:53
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Just go and `blockade` Kaliningrad......
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Old 22nd Feb 2022, 13:00
  #1156 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Possible timeline:

Russian forces will now attack the Ukrainian forces along the coast to “liberate” Mariupol and the rest of the Donetsk Oblat at the “request” of their newly recognised government.

Ukranian forces will defend and Russia, invoking their newly signed “friendship” treaties will claim it is a Ukranian attack on the new republics and an act of war and then strike south from Belarus towards Kyiv as a “counter attack” to remove the government and then install a “patriotic” government who will ask for assistance to remove “NATO collaborators” and a purge of the country…
And vastly more dangerous is this - it's clear that Big Gay Vlad is employing his well-proven tactic of probing with a sharp object until he meets resistance.

If he goes all the way in Ukraine without meeting NATO military resistance, does he go for broke and hit the Suwalki gap? Poland would go mental, but the question will be whether NATO - collectively - counters any such conquest. Do it quickly enough and you have a fait accompli. Are Biden, Scholz, Macron et al going to risk war? Over Lithuania?

For the avoidance of doubt, I believe that we should - Article 5 is either followed or it's not. If it's not, then NATO folds - and BGV wins bigger.
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Old 22nd Feb 2022, 14:27
  #1157 (permalink)  
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Old 22nd Feb 2022, 14:30
  #1158 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Not_a_boffin
And vastly more dangerous is this - it's clear that Big Gay Vlad is employing his well-proven tactic of probing with a sharp object until he meets resistance.

If he goes all the way in Ukraine without meeting NATO military resistance, does he go for broke and hit the Suwalki gap? Poland would go mental, but the question will be whether NATO - collectively - counters any such conquest. Do it quickly enough and you have a fait accompli. Are Biden, Scholz, Macron et al going to risk war? Over Lithuania?

For the avoidance of doubt, I believe that we should - Article 5 is either followed or it's not. If it's not, then NATO folds - and BGV wins bigger.
IMO, NATO would defend any and all member states.
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Old 22nd Feb 2022, 15:00
  #1159 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by pasta
If you're trying to demonise your neighbour and turn them into an enemy, that all helps the narrative.
Hmmm, just decribing the realistic options Ukraine has (and might use).
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Old 22nd Feb 2022, 15:28
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Originally Posted by admikar
IMO, NATO would defend any and all member states.
I'm very sure any incursion into NATO territory would be responded to -militarily. And has to. Otherwise any credibility would be immediately lost. And NATO is very capable (read: vastly superior) when it comes to Air power.
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