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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 13th Mar 2022, 20:20
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The losses do not appear to have changed much.
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Old 13th Mar 2022, 21:56
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Russia has requested Chinese assistance with military equipment, it shows the amount they must be losing. I would imagine China will not want to get embroiled in all of this.
Bloomberg
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Old 13th Mar 2022, 22:31
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
When the first graphic came out some two weeks ago, I commented happily on the "60 fuel tanks" - that number hasn't budged in the last two weeks. I lack the masochism necessary to wade through all pages on this thread to see how the numbers on this graphic have changed or not.
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Old 13th Mar 2022, 23:00
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This could well turn into a repeat of their Afghanistan adventure.
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Old 13th Mar 2022, 23:26
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Claimed to be "BATTLE OF KYIV. MOSHCHUN. HOSTOMEL DIRECTION"

Full video here:


"Intense fighting continues in the Gostomel direction of Kyiv. Active hostilities take place here day and night. The shelling of enemy artillery of peaceful infrastructure does not stop for a moment. In the village of Moshchun in the Bucha district of Kyiv region, our defenders are successfully destroying enemy units and have already driven the enemy out of the village."

Тривають інтенсивні бої на гостомельському напрямку Києва. Активні бойові дії тут йдуть вдень і вночі. Обстріли ворожої артилерії мирної інфраструктури не зупиняються ні на хвилину. У селі Мощун у Бучанському районі Київської області наші захисники успішно знищують ворожі підрозділи та вже витіснили противника за межі населеного пункту
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Old 13th Mar 2022, 23:38
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Captured Russian supposed Army but his description sounds more like airforce, wearing DPM too.

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Old 13th Mar 2022, 23:43
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Ahh he was, earlier film after he was shot down.


Arrow Intel
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Video of a captured bomber pilot that was shot down in Kharkiv tonight. He is Lt-Col, deputy commander of 47th regiment, made of 24 Su-34s. Now we know why Russian army was so desperate to evacuate him, sending several helicopters at night to the enemy territory.
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Old 13th Mar 2022, 23:46
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Well if there was ever a suicide mission this was it.

UKRAINE LIVE
@defensesentinel

Russian Airborne VDV units being airdropped by a Russian Helicopter in kharkiv, Reportedly all were killed.

Last edited by T28B; 14th Mar 2022 at 15:18. Reason: If you won't edit them, I will.
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Old 14th Mar 2022, 00:12
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Not verified, international legion member saying his unit was wiped out in the bombing in Yavoriv

Luka Duvnjak

@Luka_Duvnjak

Thiago Rossi, ex Brasilian soldier that was part of #InternationalLegion in #Ukraine, said that most of his Foreign unit was wiped in yesterday's Russian airstrike on their base in #Yavoriv near #Lvov He was saying that while he was fleeing to #Poland in a bus.
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Old 14th Mar 2022, 00:55
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Originally Posted by RatherBeFlying
When the first graphic came out some two weeks ago, I commented happily on the "60 fuel tanks" - that number hasn't budged in the last two weeks. I lack the masochism necessary to wade through all pages on this thread to see how the numbers on this graphic have changed or not.
Not too difficult to pull together a loose trend.

I just looked at 6 dates I found in Nutlooses posts and popped them into a table. Like you, I didn't have the desire to waste too much effort and did it during ad breaks on TV. Hope this helps.



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Old 14th Mar 2022, 01:32
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Originally Posted by RatherBeFlying
When the first graphic came out some two weeks ago, I commented happily on the "60 fuel tanks" - that number hasn't budged in the last two weeks. I lack the masochism necessary to wade through all pages on this thread to see how the numbers on this graphic have changed or not.
The 60 fuel tanks were on a couple of railway trains taken out by a TB2 strike.
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Old 14th Mar 2022, 02:44
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BearNet being reported on Twitter as becoming active.
May suggest inbound TU-95s.
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Old 14th Mar 2022, 02:55
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This is VERY concerning.



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Russian state TV channel: experts discuss a plan to occupy Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, parts of Sweden and Poland @carlbildt@JSaryuszWolski@LithuaniaMFA

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Old 14th Mar 2022, 04:09
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
This is VERY concerning.



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Russian state TV channel: experts discuss a plan to occupy Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, parts of Sweden and Poland @carlbildt@JSaryuszWolski@LithuaniaMFA
Agree, it smacks of preparing the public for something in preparation. Very disquieting timing, psy warfare only hopefully.
That said, other than Sweden, these are NATO members, so it would be full scale war, which Russia would be unlikely to win considering the performance to date in Ukraine.
Admittedly, the Russians are doing better in Ukraine recently, at least if the French Defense Ministry maps are to be believed: https://www.defense.gouv.fr/portail/...t-de-situation ,
Of course, one has to wonder how the Ukraine is keeping its forces resupplied, with much of their Army tied down to the Donbas front.
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Old 14th Mar 2022, 07:05
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
This is VERY concerning.



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@kameniar_ua
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Russian state TV channel: experts discuss a plan to occupy Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, parts of Sweden and Poland @carlbildt@JSaryuszWolski@LithuaniaMFA
So they have not been successful in occupying 1 country so want to try it with 5 more? They're off their rocker. And how will they get to Sweden?
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Old 14th Mar 2022, 07:20
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Originally Posted by Paul C
And how will they get to Sweden?
Since Russias landing crafts are in the Black Sea and Turkey closed Bosphorus, Russias only option for full scale invasion is by land. So take a wild quess...
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Old 14th Mar 2022, 07:21
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On the map in the link it was some islands off Sweden. (Gotland?)


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Old 14th Mar 2022, 07:22
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Originally Posted by Paul C
So they have not been successful in occupying 1 country so want to try it with 5 more? They're off their rocker. And how will they get to Sweden?
It's a Putin fever dream.
Never gonna happen.
FORTE12 Global Hawk flying back and forth along the Moldovan border at FL57.
Keeping an eye on that reassembled Odesa invasion fleet no doubt.
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Old 14th Mar 2022, 07:34
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix
On the map in the link it was some islands off Sweden.

That's Gotland. But they'd need an invasion army to do it as Swedes have already strengthened their garrison there. Russians probably do not have enough sufficiently trained airborne troops to do it, especially considering the VDV performance in the past few weeks in Ukraine.
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Old 14th Mar 2022, 09:00
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix
On the map in the link it was some islands off Sweden. (Gotland?)


I watched it yesterday and in the hindsight of their misery in Ukraine I started to laugh. They've been talking about miraculous electronic warfare which will blind all western radars in the area, they will sneak to Gotland by swift landing operation and declare no flight zone with 400km radius around Gotland, the weak West (remember that this TV discussion went on in December) will give in and let them take whatever territory they want. Done deal, empire restored.

I know that Russia had invested lot of energy into propaganda side of hybrid war but I wouldn't dream that they will became the major victim as a collateral damage of their own delusions. They banged the drum of marketing with "successful military reform", invincible Armata tank, hypersonic missiles and new precision weapons etc. and apparently believed this nonsense. They talked about inept and corrupt leadership of Ukraine which is hated by own nation and especially Russians living there will welcome the liberating armies of RF.

Blitzkrieg didn't materialise and there was no plan B. So they went to the usual doctrine, means flattening cities to piles of rubble with heavy artillery, especially when conscripts are not very keen to fight.

If they planned anything like taking over Baltic states as a part of this push, now they should know this is far above their manpower and logistics capabilities.
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