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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 22nd Feb 2022, 14:57
  #1161 (permalink)  
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Duma was called into closed session at 1500 UTC as the Defence Minister requested formal permission for the deployment of Russian troops abroad.

Permission, unsurprisingly, granted.

Which means Putin now has formal authority to deploy troops into Donetsk and Luhansk republics - and of course the rest of the Donbass - or elsewhere in Ukraine…

https://english.pravda.ru/news/russi...roops_donbass/

Andrey Klishas, ​​the head of the Federation Council Committee on Constitutional Legislation and State Building, said that three committees recommended senators satisfy the appeal to use Russian armed forces "outside the territory of the Russian Federation, on the basis of generally recognised principles and norms of international law."




Last edited by ORAC; 22nd Feb 2022 at 17:08.
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Old 22nd Feb 2022, 15:08
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Note the wording: request permission to send troops ABROAD. It is very different from sending troops to Donetsk or Luhansk. Putin is no longer tied to ask specific permission per Russian law, he can send them ANYWHERE HE LIKES without asking anyone.

This is not the first time this legal wording trick is used by Putin and then used as seen appropriate.

What must be understood is that Putin is obsessed in making everything seem legit and executed by the laws. It is his justification that "hey, I did everything by the book, don't blame me". And if the laws by chance aren't suited for the needs, the laws are changed (e.g. the law regarding maximum terms one may act as the president of Russia).

To make it short, things may escalate from now on very mucv faster as Putin has the almighty power granted by the Russian law he wanted.

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Old 22nd Feb 2022, 15:10
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But as he has recognised them as independent states, then surely they are now abroad.
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Old 22nd Feb 2022, 15:14
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
But as he has recognised them as independent states, then surely they are now abroad.
Of course, otherwise this wouldn't have worked.
If he would've asked permission to use forces in a peacekeeping act in DPR/LPR, he could only do that.
Now he was granted the right to send troops anywhere. Say, Poland to catch Suwalki gap if he wishes. Or UK.
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Old 22nd Feb 2022, 16:46
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Originally Posted by Beamr
Basurin added that "against this background, the decision of a number of states to stop air traffic over the territory of Ukraine looks reasonable and prudent, which will help to avoid human casualties and the repetition of tragedies with the crash of civilian airliners."
BTW, is there a legal way to declare no-fly zone in Ukraine which would be enforced by the West? Stealth capability is an enormous deterrent and I can imagine that Ukraine would be able to stand ground to ground attack but cannot cope with overwhelming air superiority of Russia at the same time. I understand we would be on the brink of major war yet we can't leave Ukraine alone and watch bleeding while doing nothing. Is there a legal way on how to enforce this?
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Old 22nd Feb 2022, 17:09
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Old 22nd Feb 2022, 17:27
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Now that’s a flag anyone can see - Russia evacuating all its diplomats from Ukraine…..

https://twitter.com/bnonews/status/1496177167578849283?s=21


https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1496192950463782915?s=21

Last edited by ORAC; 22nd Feb 2022 at 18:40.
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Old 22nd Feb 2022, 17:29
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What the markings on Russian vehicles may mean.

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Old 22nd Feb 2022, 17:37
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Originally Posted by Pali
BTW, is there a legal way to declare no-fly zone in Ukraine which would be enforced by the West? Stealth capability is an enormous deterrent and I can imagine that Ukraine would be able to stand ground to ground attack but cannot cope with overwhelming air superiority of Russia at the same time. I understand we would be on the brink of major war yet we can't leave Ukraine alone and watch bleeding while doing nothing. Is there a legal way on how to enforce this?
I guess the legal way to declare a no fly zone over Ukraine would be for Ukraine to request one, it's their airspace after all. Declaring an enforceable one would be an entirely different matter.
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Old 22nd Feb 2022, 17:48
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Discussions on #Russia's state TV basically outlined Putin's strategy: invade Donbas and once there is a "provocation" by the Ukrainian military, start invading the rest of Ukraine.

Grinning ear-to-ear, a lawmaker predicts: "And there will be a provocation, I guarantee it."…

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Old 22nd Feb 2022, 17:59
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Russian A-50 AWACS deployed forward to Belarus…

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Old 22nd Feb 2022, 18:26
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I thought this history lesson was very good.



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Old 22nd Feb 2022, 19:38
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Discussions on #Russia's state TV basically outlined Putin's strategy: invade Donbas and once there is a "provocation" by the Ukrainian military, start invading the rest of Ukraine.

Grinning ear-to-ear, a lawmaker predicts: "And there will be a provocation, I guarantee it."…

https://twitter.com/juliadavisnews/s...885642760?s=21
Having entered the dissident regions of the Ukraine, it is not obvious where to stop.
Afaik, the dissidents control about half the territory they claim,the rest is held by the Ukrainian Army.
Russia can perhaps crush that force, but then needs to guard a very messy frontier with no obvious natural barriers.
The Dnieper river is probably the logical frontier, but that implies a much deeper incursion.
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Old 22nd Feb 2022, 19:41
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Its all well making these strong statements in parliament, hard line instant sanctions and some admiral speeches (maybe needed before they shot down an airliner) now that they have invaded. Again

But Putin has prepared Russia for all to see, example being the increasing of it gold reserve from 14 Billion 5 years ago to 132 Billion, a ten fold increase, moving away from dollar payments, looking for other buyers of gas and setting up the econemy to be more self sufficient. Making ex Chancellor Schröder a Gazprom director. chess piece after chess piece. check

200000 troops now surround ukraine, 2/3 of russian Total forces, and now are occupying the regions now recognized as Russian republics. These were however the biggest roadblocks stopping ukraine from Nato membership as a conflict however frozen was a no go. This is now overnight not the case.

Submit ukraine into nato overnight.
give 40 million people the protection they crave


EU membership would then be on the table down the road once those strict requirements are met.

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Old 22nd Feb 2022, 19:49
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Why all these procedures and formality when by now everybody already knows it is just fake and show? Who do they think they fool?
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Old 22nd Feb 2022, 19:56
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Needs wide distribution…

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Old 22nd Feb 2022, 20:27
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Where are all those “military experts” now who, during Afghanistan, declared that we didn’t need high end capabilities any more, there would be no more state v state conflicts and all we needed were armed Tucanos. Max Hastings to name but one.
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Old 22nd Feb 2022, 20:33
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Seems a bit late in the day…

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Old 22nd Feb 2022, 22:07
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What an odious, smirking little man Putin is.
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-60485967

EDIT: I see the Kiwis have summoned the Russian ambassador.
"We are vury dusappunted..."

Last edited by tartare; 23rd Feb 2022 at 03:32.
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Old 23rd Feb 2022, 06:58
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