Originally Posted by
Not_a_boffin
And vastly more dangerous is this - it's clear that Big Gay Vlad is employing his well-proven tactic of probing with a sharp object until he meets resistance.
If he goes all the way in Ukraine without meeting NATO military resistance, does he go for broke and hit the Suwalki gap? Poland would go mental, but the question will be whether NATO - collectively - counters any such conquest. Do it quickly enough and you have a fait accompli. Are Biden, Scholz, Macron et al going to risk war? Over Lithuania?
For the avoidance of doubt, I believe that we should - Article 5 is either followed or it's not. If it's not, then NATO folds - and BGV wins bigger.
IMO, NATO would defend any and all member states.