Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > Aircrew Forums > Military Aviation
Reload this Page >

Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Military Aviation A forum for the professionals who fly military hardware. Also for the backroom boys and girls who support the flying and maintain the equipment, and without whom nothing would ever leave the ground. All armies, navies and air forces of the world equally welcome here.

Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 21st Feb 2022, 05:31
  #1061 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Russian Federation
Age: 35
Posts: 26
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Don't politicians in the west get tired of shitting their pants by setting dates for Russian invasions and then being wrong when the said date comes and goes?

In my opinion the only way Russia will invade Ukraine is if the Ukrainian regime decides to try a quickie and get control of Donetsk and Lughansk back (i.e. Saakashvilli back in 2008) in which case they will have their asses handed to them.
Looks like they understand that and don't have much desire to have that happen, however most of the west is throwing fuel onto the fire and feeding the hysteria.
Vitek is offline  
Old 21st Feb 2022, 05:36
  #1062 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: Outer ring of HEL
Posts: 1,571
Received 135 Likes on 60 Posts
Originally Posted by Vitek
Don't politicians in the west get tired of shitting their pants by setting dates for Russian invasions and then being wrong when the said date comes and goes?

In my opinion the only way Russia will invade Ukraine is if the Ukrainian regime decides to try a quickie and get control of Donetsk and Lughansk back (i.e. Saakashvilli back in 2008) in which case they will have their asses handed to them.
Looks like they understand that and don't have much desire to have that happen, however most of the west is throwing fuel onto the fire and feeding the hysteria.
First and foremost: Donetsk and Luhansk are Ukraininan soil, and Ukraine is a soveregin country. What is Russias justification to be there in the first place?
Or Crimea, there is no right fo rRussia to invade sovereign countries and annex parts form those.

As second, without the western countries exposing Russias plans to enslave ukrainians, Putin would've already attacked Ukraine.
Beamr is offline  
Old 21st Feb 2022, 05:55
  #1063 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: Outer ring of HEL
Posts: 1,571
Received 135 Likes on 60 Posts
Originally Posted by NAROBS
Plenty of US Global Hawks showing on Flight Radar over the last week, but no Russian equivalent on the other side of the border. Wouldn't intelligence gathered by such devices be just as essential to the Russians if a Russian invasion was imminent . . . Unless they don't carry ADS-B.
I doubt that all the RIvet Joints, Global Hawks et al have flown with ADS-B on. They are doing so with some flights to make a point that they are there. And at the same time I doubt that any of the Russian military has had the transponders on at all. If they would've then the flightradar would've swarmed with military AC.
Beamr is offline  
Old 21st Feb 2022, 07:52
  #1064 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: PLanet Earth
Posts: 1,251
Received 46 Likes on 26 Posts
Originally Posted by Beamr
As second, without the western countries exposing Russias plans to enslave ukrainians, Putin would've already attacked Ukraine.
???
How does this exactly prevent an invasion?
henra is offline  
Old 21st Feb 2022, 08:44
  #1065 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 926
Received 44 Likes on 27 Posts
Too much unwanted attention. Not preventing it but delaying it with last minute phone calls, negotiations and top level activities. I hope it is mud season now.
Less Hair is offline  
Old 21st Feb 2022, 08:47
  #1066 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2018
Location: back out to Grasse
Posts: 557
Received 28 Likes on 12 Posts
Originally Posted by henra
???
How does this exactly prevent an invasion?
In recent history, it was possible to execute an invasion and occupy a country with very little exposure of intent to either the targets or potential allies. In this age of social media, 24 hour news, live webcam and video feeds, the world is made aware of the intentions of an attacker.

The masses can assess the validity of claims by either sides, and consign the spin, lies, trolls and political bluster to the bin. An incursion or invasion of this magnitude will almost instantly be visible.

If attackers realize that their plans, stance and posture are completely visible and understood, they may decide that the reaction to the incursion may not be in their best interests. Hence all of the surveillance assets trundling around, and the decision to make them visible via ADSB is part of the social media campaign. (You will have noticed that the Russians are not allowing ADSB for any military asset) which also makes a statement about what they are doing if they choose not to disclose their position or intentions,

IG

Last edited by Imagegear; 21st Feb 2022 at 11:12.
Imagegear is offline  
Old 21st Feb 2022, 08:52
  #1067 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: London
Posts: 592
Received 66 Likes on 29 Posts
Originally Posted by henra
How does this exactly prevent an invasion?
Hard to claim (credibly) that you haven't spent the last couple of months planning an invasion if the rest of the World have had a running commentary on those invasion plans. So it doesn't prevent the invasion, but does make it awfully hard to claim it was a necessary response to a (false flag) incident or series of incidents.
pasta is online now  
Old 21st Feb 2022, 11:03
  #1068 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Europe
Posts: 135
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
False flag incidents already happening, btw...
fab777 is offline  
Old 21st Feb 2022, 11:06
  #1069 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 29,881
Received 1,321 Likes on 598 Posts
Originally Posted by pasta
Hard to claim (credibly) that you haven't spent the last couple of months planning an invasion if the rest of the World have had a running commentary on those invasion plans. So it doesn't prevent the invasion, but does make it awfully hard to claim it was a necessary response to a (false flag) incident or series of incidents.
Plus it makes it that much more difficult to simply roll into a Country when the location of all your assets are known to the opposition.

It's reconnaissance by proxy..
NutLoose is online now  
Old 21st Feb 2022, 12:57
  #1070 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: Outer ring of HEL
Posts: 1,571
Received 135 Likes on 60 Posts
Originally Posted by NAROBS
If location of the opposition's assets are fairly well known, I take it, it would be possible for NATO to publish details of the tracks of the oppositions reconnaisance drones, so that the public World-Wide and other interested parties could see what's happening and guage whether this activity was rising or falling. Ditto details of all NATOs reconnaisance assets - the opposition's military hierarchy would already know most of this detail and, accordingly, security would not be jeopardised.
I'd reckon NATO does not want to publish anything specific regarding specific unit movements. It would give an idea of the overall capabilities and would offer the opposition an opportunity to compare actual movements to the intel info hence getting a better picture of the intel capabilities..A lot easier is to just leave the ADS-B on and let everyone know you are there but leave them wondering what do you really know.
In essence, They know a lot, but not a lot is given out.
Beamr is offline  
Old 21st Feb 2022, 13:40
  #1071 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 29,881
Received 1,321 Likes on 598 Posts
It's starting

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60454795

UK warns that it has intelligence that Russia is planning an invasion and plan has "already begun"

A spokesman for UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has told a media briefing that intelligence reports suggest Russian President Vladimir Putin intends to launch an invasion of Ukraine.

"The intelligence we are seeing suggests that Russia intends to launch an invasion and that President Putin's plan has already begun," the spokesman told reporters.

"We're seeing seen elements of the Russian playbook that we would expect to see in certain situations, starting to play out in real time."

Rebel-held regions ask Putin to recognise them as independent

Two separatist leaders from Ukraine have appealed to Vladimir Putin to recognise their "people's republics" as independent states.

Denis Pushilin, head of the Donetsk People's Republic, and Leonid Pasechnik, leader of the Luhansk People's Republic, are reported to be in Moscow.

Their appeals have been shown by Russian state TV.

Putin told his security council it was necessary to consider the appeals.

"Our objective, the objective of our meeting today is to listen to colleagues and decide on our next steps in this area," Putin said.

If he agrees, it could lead to Moscow openly sending military forces into both regions, using the claim that it is intervening as an ally to protect them from Ukraine.
On one of the many Whatsapp groups now populated by hundreds of foreign journalists covering this crisis, beleaguered Ukrainian officials are trying desperately to stem the flow of bizarre and potentially explosive allegations coming from pro-Russian separatists in the Donbas.

This morning they’ve been forced to deny reports that a Russian border post was attacked by Ukrainian forces (an allegation accompanied by a rather sorry looking shed in the middle of woodland) and that five Ukrainian soldiers had been killed and two Ukrainian armoured personnel carriers destroyed when they strayed across the border into Russian territory near Rostov.

There is no evidence to suggest either of these things happened, but officials are forced to deny each any every allegation, no matter how absurd or unlikely.
NutLoose is online now  
Old 21st Feb 2022, 13:55
  #1072 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: London
Posts: 1,526
Received 3 Likes on 2 Posts
I wonder if these two breakaway regions will be allowed to retain their independence post any invasion? My guess is that the issue will quietly be shelved, it having served its purpose.

On one of the many Whatsapp groups now populated by hundreds of foreign journalists covering this crisis, beleaguered Ukrainian officials are trying desperately to stem the flow of bizarre and potentially explosive allegations coming from pro-Russian separatists in the Donbas.
Have to say the western media is playing a full and central part in amplifying this BS propaganda. Almost every UK MSM outlet is running with the story about the alleged Ukrainian incursion. Is fact checking not a thing anymore?
dead_pan is offline  
Old 21st Feb 2022, 14:16
  #1073 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 29,881
Received 1,321 Likes on 598 Posts
If the Ukraine was going to have done anything so stupid, one would have thought they would have struck when all this nice Russian armour etc was all parked up in great big clusters or on railheads..
NutLoose is online now  
Old 21st Feb 2022, 14:27
  #1074 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: London
Posts: 1,526
Received 3 Likes on 2 Posts
A few random thoughts regarding Russia's subsumption to China, likely sanctions etc:
  • Sanctions could impact Russia's upcoming 5G network roll-out, given likely restrictions on access to western tech. Would Huawei then be in the running and, if so, what would the Russian state think about this given the concerns widely aired in the West? (similarly Russian consumers - no more iPhones etc)
  • Sanctions could extend to access to aviation spares, servicing etc. If so this comprehensively phuq Russia's airlines, who are major Boeing/Airbus operators.
  • Russia really has only two markets for its natural gas, given the absence of any significant liquefaction/LNG transportation capacity. Losing one would leave it exposed to the demands of the other.
Its ironic that, in seeking to assert its own sphere of influence, Putin's Russia has effectively inserted itself into China's. Despite Putin's efforts to portray Russia as an equal partner, it really isn't; China's economy and population dwarf Russia's (as will its military in a couple of years). Maybe we should start referring to Russia as 'Greater China', to shake those dunderhead trolls from their idiotic reveries?
dead_pan is offline  
Old 21st Feb 2022, 15:45
  #1075 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: SE of there
Age: 43
Posts: 158
Received 24 Likes on 14 Posts
Originally Posted by NutLoose
Again? Do we at least know a date?
admikar is offline  
Old 21st Feb 2022, 16:29
  #1076 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 29,881
Received 1,321 Likes on 598 Posts
According to The Sun, last Wednesday, but Putin probably never got his copy
NutLoose is online now  
Old 21st Feb 2022, 16:57
  #1077 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: London
Posts: 592
Received 66 Likes on 29 Posts
According to the NOTAM, some time this week would seem to be the current plan.

I actually didn't realise you were supposed to issue a NOTAM before starting a war, but given their 2014 screw-up I guess it makes sense...
pasta is online now  
Old 21st Feb 2022, 17:18
  #1078 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: Outer ring of HEL
Posts: 1,571
Received 135 Likes on 60 Posts
Kremlin announced that Russia will recognize DPR and LPR.
Putin about to keep a speech on it very shortly.

This is not a good development.
Beamr is offline  
Old 21st Feb 2022, 17:25
  #1079 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 29,881
Received 1,321 Likes on 598 Posts
And the US recognised the state of Israel, but they didnít move in. Independent is independent.
NutLoose is online now  
Old 21st Feb 2022, 17:35
  #1080 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: inv
Posts: 346
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by NutLoose
And the US recognised the state of Israel, but they didnít move in. Independent is independent.
As did the USSR Israel was admitted to the UN on the 11 may 1949
scr1 is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service - Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information

Copyright © 2023 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.