Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > Aircrew Forums > Military Aviation
Reload this Page >

Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Military Aviation A forum for the professionals who fly military hardware. Also for the backroom boys and girls who support the flying and maintain the equipment, and without whom nothing would ever leave the ground. All armies, navies and air forces of the world equally welcome here.

Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 1st Mar 2022, 22:02
  #2141 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Oxenfforrdde
Posts: 168
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Wear clown shoes, get clowns in your Car.

Not saying that Vlad's scum won't roll over UKR if they ramp up as it appears that they may be doing, but as someone said on AARSE, might win Tactically but not strategically, that game's already over.

Edit: Was replying to Nutloose's post about Lukashenko
Tyres O'Flaherty is offline  
Old 1st Mar 2022, 22:30
  #2142 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 32,819
Received 2,799 Likes on 1,192 Posts
Reports in several newspaper are that the landings are off, Marines revolted and informed the Ukrainians the attack was off then the fleet requested from Ukraine permission to sail away
NutLoose is offline  
Old 1st Mar 2022, 22:52
  #2143 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Wherever it is this month
Posts: 1,787
Received 75 Likes on 34 Posts
Originally Posted by Tyres O'Flaherty
Not saying that Vlad's scum won't roll over UKR if they ramp up as it appears that they may be doing, but as someone said on AARSE, might win Tactically but not strategically, that game's already over.
There's no doubt about that. Even if Russia seizes control of Ukraine tomorrow without another shot being fired, there is no way the international community will back down from the sanctions now in place until Ukraine's sovereignty is restored, and those sanctions are severe enough to bring about the end of Putin sooner or later (probably sooner). No doubt there will be Russian attempts to peel states away from the consensus, one by one, but I suspect that any who start to wobble will soon come under threat of sanction themselves. In the absence of any possibility of UN action, maintenance of the international system (which remains in the best interest of practically all states) demands nothing less.
Easy Street is offline  
Old 1st Mar 2022, 23:07
  #2144 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Oxenfforrdde
Posts: 168
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by Easy Street
There's no doubt about that. Even if Russia seizes control of Ukraine tomorrow without another shot being fired, there is no way the international community will back down from the sanctions now in place until Ukraine's sovereignty is restored, and those sanctions are severe enough to bring about the end of Putin sooner or later (probably sooner). No doubt there will be Russian attempts to peel states away from the consensus, one by one, but I suspect that any who start to wobble will soon come under threat of sanction themselves. In the absence of any possibility of UN action, maintenance of the international system (which remains in the best interest of practically all states) demands nothing less.
No doubt Easy you are correct, but I was more commenting on the unlikelihood that the great majority of the UKR population are now very west/EU leaning, against the past crap, and as much mentioned elsewhere RU would not be able to hold their Slavic brothers under control w/out much more force levels than can be deployed. Vlad used to be a great calculator (such is the narrative) He appears to be either wrong, mental, or terminally ill and that affecting his judgement
Tyres O'Flaherty is offline  
Old 1st Mar 2022, 23:10
  #2145 (permalink)  

Evertonian
 
Join Date: May 2000
Location: #3117# Ppruner of the Year Nominee 2005
Posts: 12,481
Received 100 Likes on 57 Posts
I'm intrigued by India's position in this. They appear to play both sides (RU & US) and seem to be keeping a low profile, akin to not knowing who to back. Just my 2c.
Buster Hyman is online now  
Old 1st Mar 2022, 23:40
  #2146 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 32,819
Received 2,799 Likes on 1,192 Posts
Truly a sad day

Natasha Perakov, 29 years old, the first Ukrainian fighter pilot died in combat during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. #Russia#Ucrania#Ukraine#Kyiv#Kiev#SlavaUkraini
NutLoose is offline  
Old 1st Mar 2022, 23:45
  #2147 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Japan
Posts: 1,951
Received 143 Likes on 86 Posts
When someone writes a book about this war, and in particular this 60 km long static convoy, there will be an interesting chapter on the real reasons that it did not move. (I get the explanation that vast convoys can only realistically move 50 km a day for logistical reasons.)

Speculation warning.
If there is any truth in this 'mutiny' over the Odessa landings, then could there be loss of morale and discipline within the ranks in the army convoy? Are there rogue generals even, or troops that have spent time on the available internet, refusing to move if they are not 100% welcome in Ukraine?

Or are they waiting for the cities to be mashed to pulp first by incoming fire? If the latter, then Putin needs to know NOW that they are sitting ducks and that he will lose his youngest and finest if he ever unleashes his war crime on the cities.

Or has Putin set up a dummy convoy waiting for it to be attacked, offering him a pretext to attack the cities? They seem to be parked temptingly close together.
jolihokistix is online now  
Old 2nd Mar 2022, 00:08
  #2148 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Wherever it is this month
Posts: 1,787
Received 75 Likes on 34 Posts
I have read elsewhere that unseasonably warm temperatures (above zero ) mean that the ground is unexpectedly boggy and thus most vehicles are confined to roads. The Ukrainians seem to have done a good job of demolishing key bridges, and the Russians' logistic ineptitude means they are taking forever to get bridging equipment into place. So there is a massive traffic jam in the North waiting for river crossings to be established further south.

I doubt many current A-10 and Apache pilots are looking at those images and salivating. They are probably thinking "only if someone takes out the Buks and S400s a few miles away over the border, not to mention the embedded Tor units." As should be obvious, that simply isn't going to happen.
Easy Street is offline  
Old 2nd Mar 2022, 00:25
  #2149 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Wyoming
Posts: 512
Received 37 Likes on 15 Posts
U.S. will close its skies to Russian aircraft

Biden to announce U.S. will close its skies to Russian aircraft (msn.com)

Biden to announce U.S. will close its skies to Russian aircraft

The U.S. will close its skies to Russian aircraft, President Joe Biden will announce during his State of the Union address Tuesday night, according to a source familiar with the president's plans.

The announcement will come during an address that will focus heavily on the response by the U.S. and its allies against the Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.
The move to close U.S. airspace to Russian aircraft follows actions taken by the European Union earlier this week to do the same.

On Sunday, the E.U. banned all travel from Russian planes over its airspace in response to President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. That ban applied to “any plane owned, chartered or otherwise controlled by a Russian legal or natural person” and included any aircraft privately owned by a Russian oligarch, officials said.

Individual European countries had previously prohibited various Russian aircraft from their airspace. Canada has also shut its airspace to Russian aircraft.

Biden’s announcement for the U.S. to do the same will come during a speech in which he’ll slam Putin’s invasion of Ukraine as “wrong” and will highlight the response that the U.S. and its allies have undertaken against it, according to excerpts released by the White House.

“Throughout our history we’ve learned this lesson — when dictators do not pay a price for their aggression, they cause more chaos. They keep moving. And, the costs and threats to America and the world keep rising,” Biden will say.

In his prime-time remarks, Biden will highlight the unity between the U.S. and its NATO allies in their response to Russia’s “premeditated and unprovoked” invasion, saying Putin underestimated the strength of the NATO alliance, according to excerpts remarks released by the White House ahead of the speech.

“That’s why the NATO Alliance was created to secure peace and stability in Europe after World War 2. The United States is a member along with 29 other nations,” Biden will say. “It matters. American diplomacy matters.”

“[Putin] thought the West and NATO wouldn’t respond. And,he thought he could divide us here at home,” Biden will say, according to the excerpts.

“Putin was wrong. We were ready,” Biden will say.

Biden’s speech will come after another day of fighting in Ukraine, where an intensifying Russian assault pounded the heart of Ukraine’s second-largest city, fueling fears that civilians would bear the brunt of the attack.
havoc is offline  
Old 2nd Mar 2022, 00:43
  #2150 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: the far south
Posts: 608
Likes: 0
Received 34 Likes on 13 Posts
Does anyone remember when there was thinking that the Warsaw Pact might reach the English Channel in a week or two? 48 Hours even!
It was hard to believe even then – If the T-72 was as unreliable as Chieftain they would not have got any to Gutersloh !
typerated is offline  
Old 2nd Mar 2022, 02:32
  #2151 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Canada
Age: 63
Posts: 5,202
Received 133 Likes on 60 Posts
Sadly I can see no good outcome for Ukraine. Putin can’t back down now so an occupied Ukraine is the only acceptable outcome for him. The only way that is going to happen is total war with a level of death and destruction we have not seen since WW2

The world order as we know it is going to change in important ways, some good, some not good at all…
Big Pistons Forever is offline  
Old 2nd Mar 2022, 03:01
  #2152 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: A better place.
Posts: 2,319
Received 24 Likes on 16 Posts
Seeing all those trucks - the TOS-1s and MLRSs lined up, you can just see what Putin is going to do.
Stand 6kms back from Kyiv and turn it into Grozny.
Then the ground troops will go into a burned out and shattered hell.
tartare is offline  
Old 2nd Mar 2022, 03:10
  #2153 (permalink)  
See and avoid
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: USA
Posts: 687
Received 32 Likes on 19 Posts
Naive thought, since it was “essential” that the tanks go in while the ground was frozen solid, why not light loads of bonfires to turn the lanes and surrounding area into mud?

They whole drumbeat of war was that they had to launch in February when it was cold. Are they actually useless later in the year?

Same idea as blowing up bridges: slow the approach.

If they can’t get enough fuel to the convey it grinds to a halt.

If there isn’t enough food, well the soldiers will probably take what’s available rather than go hungry.
visibility3miles is offline  
Old 2nd Mar 2022, 03:36
  #2154 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Toronto
Posts: 2,558
Received 38 Likes on 17 Posts
In the plausible deniability department, send Ukrainian to drone control center, stick UKAF labels on drone, Hellfires and ARMs, touch and go at Ukraine air base going in and out, take out AA in armored column, then let Su 25s and helicoptered troops with NLAWs do their thing - all at night of course.

DO NOT land helos in mud.


​​​
RatherBeFlying is offline  
Old 2nd Mar 2022, 03:49
  #2155 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: A better place.
Posts: 2,319
Received 24 Likes on 16 Posts
WRT the post above - I wonder if lethal aid to Ukraine might in future extend to Reapers or other UAVs and the weapons they can carry?
I guess that would move things closer to a proxy NATO v Russia conflict...
tartare is offline  
Old 2nd Mar 2022, 04:46
  #2156 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Japan
Posts: 1,951
Received 143 Likes on 86 Posts
Would the Russians risk firing a S-400 at any aircraft or drone, flown fast and low straight along the heads of said parked column?
jolihokistix is online now  
Old 2nd Mar 2022, 04:54
  #2157 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Everett, WA
Age: 68
Posts: 4,406
Received 180 Likes on 88 Posts
This is interesting:
The body of the article is behind a paywall, but according to the Wall Street Journal the oil companies and banks are showing more balls against Russia than the POTUS and the EU by not buying Russian crude.
In their broadside of sanctions on Russia, the U.S. and its allies are going out of their way to spare energy shipments and keep economies humming and voters warm.
The oil market went on strike anyway. Acting as if energy were in the crosshairs of Western sanctions officials, refiners balked at buying Russian oil and banks are refusing to finance shipments of Russian commodities, according to traders, oil executives and bankers.
<snip>
Traders are offering Urals at massive discounts—as much as $18 a barrel below the price of Brent—and even then not finding buyers. A drop in the price of Espo, a grade of Russian crude popular in Asia, suggests refiners in Japan and South Korea are hitting pause on purchases alongside those in Europe and the U.S.

“The market is starting to fail,” said a person at a major commodities trading house.
Russia Scrambles to Maintain Oil Sales, Lifeblood of Economy - WSJ
tdracer is offline  
Old 2nd Mar 2022, 05:34
  #2158 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 314
Received 249 Likes on 49 Posts
A Bridge Too Far

Could Kiev be the Russians Arnhem?
Supplies stretched out over a single road, where breakdowns cause severe holdups.
Bridges being destroyed to hold up the advance.
Soft ground (and forests) either side of the road not allowing a manoeuvre based mechanised army able to deploy.
Parachutist sent in to capture key positions and failing.
Artillery unable to be deployed effectively.
Supposed Air Superiority under effective.
Resupply of forward assets compromised and ineffective.
Reinforcements unable to give impetus to the advance or take and hold positions.
No momentum.
Poor planning and hubris on the part of the leadership.
Defended strong points of a force of unknown size and quality - with strong leadership and high moral.
Defenders have much shortened supply lines.

The only difference is that the population are most definitely against the attacking force and civilians from around the world are able to help.
The attackers are led by a couple of dictatorial nut jobs.
Spunky Monkey is offline  
Old 2nd Mar 2022, 06:07
  #2159 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 32,819
Received 2,799 Likes on 1,192 Posts
Originally Posted by visibility3miles
Naive thought, since it was “essential” that the tanks go in while the ground was frozen solid, why not light loads of bonfires to turn the lanes and surrounding area into mud?.
or pump water onto them.
NutLoose is offline  
Old 2nd Mar 2022, 07:30
  #2160 (permalink)  

Only half a speed-brake
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Commuting not home
Age: 46
Posts: 4,319
Received 3 Likes on 3 Posts
Apparently war is no hardship compared to COVID, as toilet paper remains plentiful.

Unless....?

Well, perhaps the Ukrainian people understand the purpose of bathroom hygiene

​​​​​.
​​​​​​.
​​​​​​.
Is to remove the piece of sleet from anus, not to add one, hence they avoid this product.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsin...ustom_printed/
FlightDetent is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service

Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.