Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > Aircrew Forums > Military Aviation
Reload this Page >

Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Military Aviation A forum for the professionals who fly military hardware. Also for the backroom boys and girls who support the flying and maintain the equipment, and without whom nothing would ever leave the ground. All armies, navies and air forces of the world equally welcome here.

Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 16th Feb 2022, 08:59
  #941 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 18,093
Received 2,148 Likes on 976 Posts
ORAC is offline  
Old 16th Feb 2022, 11:44
  #942 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,549
Received 3,300 Likes on 1,377 Posts
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...ide/ar-AATVHpm

President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that Russia believes what is happening in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbass "constitutes genocide," as he reiterated calls for its independence.

Putin was speaking after he met with the new German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Moscow. Stock markets rose after the Russian president raised hopes of easing East-West tensions.

Vladimir Putin said that Moscow is ready for talks with the US and its allies on missile deployments and military transparency, in a sign that a Russian invasion of Ukraine may be averted.
Strange that, The country was at peace before Russia invaded, so who has caused his supposed Genocide? Answers on a postcard..
NutLoose is online now  
Old 16th Feb 2022, 12:57
  #943 (permalink)  

"Mildly" Eccentric Stardriver
 
Join Date: Jan 2000
Location: England
Age: 77
Posts: 4,199
Received 264 Likes on 85 Posts
As Henra said: "While personally he won't care much he would be forced by his own population to care in such a case" This is of course assuming the population know the truth. Presumably those brave enough to listen are getting some radio broadcasts from the West. However, any subversion or revolt would be brutally put down. Yet again, as repeatedly throughout history, the greatest number of sufferers will be the Russian people.
Herod is offline  
Old 16th Feb 2022, 14:46
  #944 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: SE of there
Age: 44
Posts: 263
Received 51 Likes on 35 Posts
Do we know new invasion date?
admikar is online now  
Old 16th Feb 2022, 15:03
  #945 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Glorious Devon
Posts: 2,829
Received 1,502 Likes on 907 Posts
Originally Posted by admikar
Do we know new invasion date?
Well I don't know what you know but I know what I know, so no. But then we would say that wouldn't we?
Ninthace is online now  
Old 16th Feb 2022, 15:10
  #946 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: Ferrara
Posts: 8,863
Received 437 Likes on 263 Posts
originally someone said that Putin had promised Xi he wouldn't invade during-the Winter Olympics
Asturias56 is offline  
Old 16th Feb 2022, 15:27
  #947 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: cowtown
Posts: 926
Received 92 Likes on 66 Posts
The invasion was probably delayed as the rapid response troops were needed to secure the oil fields in Kazakhstan , radio silence for a few days , no press , no media . In and out .
They should all be rested up by now and ready for a possible quick trip to Syria , Cuba or a remote chance of Venezuelan oil and gas fields summer holidaymakers 11 days in and out . All countries with a connection to oil and gas corporate wars over the same corporations oil and gas contracts .


fitliker is online now  
Old 16th Feb 2022, 15:50
  #948 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: London
Posts: 1,592
Received 21 Likes on 13 Posts
Originally Posted by Asturias56
originally someone said that Putin had promised Xi he wouldn't invade during-the Winter Olympics
He's probably going to wait until his beloved ice hockey team have either won or been knocked out - he wouldn't want to take the shine of their performance.

On the topic of international sporting competitions, I see Russia is scheduled to play Poland in the World Cup qualifier on March 22nd....in Moscow . Odds on this going ahead?
dead_pan is offline  
Old 16th Feb 2022, 16:04
  #949 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: Outer ring of HEL
Posts: 1,772
Received 380 Likes on 137 Posts
Originally Posted by dead_pan
He's probably going to wait until his beloved ice hockey team have either won or been knocked out - he wouldn't want to take the shine of their performance.
On friday Sweden will probably knock the ROC team out of the gold game. I doubt Putin cares much for a possible bronze.
Beamr is online now  
Old 16th Feb 2022, 16:28
  #950 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: West
Posts: 526
Received 46 Likes on 18 Posts
Will Ukraine War Break Out? Watch China's Embassy

Will Ukraine War Break Out? Watch China's Embassy (msn.com)As Western governments, including the U.S., reduce their diplomatic presence in Kyiv, China's decision to keep its embassy staff in the city may be the clearest sign yet that it expects de-escalation.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced the relocation of American diplomats from Kyiv to Lviv, on the country's border with Poland, on Monday, citing "the dramatic acceleration in the buildup of Russian forces."

The U.S. and its NATO allies are monitoring the movements of more than 100,000 Russian troops around Ukraine, with Blinken and national security adviser Jake Sullivan continuing to warn that an invasion this week is possible.

China, which backed Russia's security concerns and opposed NATO expansion in an eye-catching joint statement earlier this month, has stopped short of remarking on Moscow's dramatic military deployments in recent weeks. But Beijing's most telling signal of calm could be its decision to keep its diplomatic staff in Kyiv and its citizens in Ukraine, while renewing calls for restraint and dialogue.

"China is closely monitoring the development of Ukraine's situation," China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin told reporters in the Chinese capital on Monday. "The Chinese Embassy and Consulate-General in Ukraine are working normally, and the embassy has issued a consular advisory that reminds Chinese citizens and institutions to closely follow the developments and increase their safety awareness."



"The Chinese Foreign Ministry and our embassy in Ukraine will stay in close contact with Chinese citizens and institutions there, provide timely consular protection and assistance, and earnestly protect their safety and legitimate rights and interests," he said.

China is busy hosting the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing while tensions flare on the Ukraine-Russia border.

By all accounts, a Russian invasion of Ukraine would concern the Chinese leadership by destabilizing Europe and the many economies undergoing post-pandemic recovery, but Beijing has so far refused to publicly acknowledge its leverage with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

On Tuesday, Wang dismissed suggestions that Beijing had asked Moscow not to invade Ukraine. "China's position on Ukraine is consistent, clear and stays unchanged. We believe all parties should sincerely abide by the Minsk II agreement and work toward the comprehensive resolution of the Ukraine crisis and related issues through dialogue and negotiation," said Wang.

The 2015 agreement aimed for, but failed to achieve, an end to the years-long conflict between Kyiv and Russian-speaking separatists in eastern Ukraine. "We call on all parties to remain rational and refrain from making moves that may escalate the tensions and play up and sensationalize the crisis," he said.

Beijing appeared to take issue with NATO members who continued to warn that an all-out invasion was highly likely, and who also criticized China for its perceived endorsement of Moscow's behavior. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby has called China's "tacit support" for Russia "deeply alarming," while U.K. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss told British radio station LBC that her government wasn't discounting the possibility of a Russian attack.

"I do not trust what they have said," Truss said on Tuesday. "We very much fear a false flag incident in the next few days, where the Russians pretend that there has been provocation from Ukraine in order to justify an invasion."

Wang responded without naming names. "Under the current circumstances, exaggerating and hyping up the possibility of warfare is not responsible behavior. Resorting readily to sanctions and pressure won't help to de-escalate the situation. Clamoring for bloc confrontation will only lead to the old path of the Cold War," he said.

"We call on all sides to adopt an equal and open attitude, and work for the sincere implementation of the Minsk II agreement through dialogue and negotiation, so as to create conditions for a political resolution of the Ukraine crisis."

There appeared to be cause for optimism on Tuesday when Russia's Defense Ministry announced the withdrawal of some forces from Ukraine's border, following the conclusion of military exercises. The repositioning of Russian troops—amid ongoing drills involving other elements—hadn't been independently verified by NATO members at the time of publication.

In response, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba tweeted: "We in Ukraine have a rule: we don't believe what we hear, we believe what we see. If a real withdrawal follows these statements, we will believe in the beginning of a real de-escalation."

Related Articles
havoc is offline  
Old 16th Feb 2022, 16:29
  #951 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Moscow region
Age: 65
Posts: 567
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by fitliker
The invasion was probably delayed ....... .
The probability of conflict is very high indeed, unfortunately. And it does not depend on Russia or Ukraine or various European “negotiators”. It does not even depend on the current POTUS. The US establishment and military-industrial complex have already prepared a package of sanctions of their dream and will do their best to implement them. The benefit is “N-fold” for them (and for the UK after the “Brexit”). To make problems and weaken Russian economy. But also weaken EU and especially Germany and make them buy liquid gas from the US (at much higher price) instead of using the pipelines from Russia. Keep demonizing Russia helps keep the NATO member states more united. Make defense budgets zoom. Distract population from internal economic problems (“war is at our door step, so some “collateral damage” is inevitable”). Etc, etc.

And it’s very pity that it’s very easy to start the fire in the current situation. It may start with a provocation staged by the Ukrainian side with the help of US and UK instructors. Could be enough to just send a “go” command from D.C. (not necessarily Pennsylvania avenue 1600) or Virginia to a local coordinator in the Donbass area, and the latter will command further to the Ukrainian forces nearby. Their dirty tricks are well-known. For example, blow up some chemicals (like white-helmet clowns did in Syria) and accuse separatists. Or it could an explosion in a power plant, dam, etc. Then a short hysteria in the Ukrainian and Western media with a refrain that “those separatists must die” and massive attack on Lugansk and Donetsk.

Russia will have no chance to escape preventing genocide of the Russian population in the area and respond. Lugansk and Donetsk will be immediately recognized as independent legal entities and their request to help will be instantly answered positively. The same sequence of events as it was with Georgia in 2008 when insane Saakashvili attacked South Ossetia and killed many Russian peacekeeping staff there.

Of the course the best moment to start this dirty and bloody game is not on Feb. 16 or a few days later. Again, like in 2008 they are probably waiting until the ongoing drills of the Russian forces are over and they return back to their bases.

The Ukrainian army keeps nearly 50% of its troops at a relatively short Donbass front line. While huge segments of the border in the East are not protected at all. If they were really expecting Russian tanks to invade, they would behave in a different way. This only means they are getting ready to attack Donbass.

A piece of black humour (from Ukraine) in the end:

A phone rings at a restaurant in Khreschatik (main street in Kiev).

- Hello, a marine platoon commander from Crimea here. May I please book a large table for thirty men for Feb 19 evening?

- Sorry sir, you are just 30 minutes late. We are fully booked for that date. The NN armory battalion commander from Belgorod has already reserved the whole restaurant. But if you can make it on 18th, we can arrange a room for your crowd.

Hope there will be no need for such bookings.
A_Van is offline  
Old 16th Feb 2022, 16:41
  #952 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: West
Posts: 526
Received 46 Likes on 18 Posts
US Sub equipment from earlier reported incident

Russian military managed to seize secret equipment from an American nuclear submarine - Defence View

The Russian military discovered and successfully captured secret American equipment.

Secret equipment was found a few kilometers off the Russian island of Urup, apparently abandoned in a hurry by the crew of a U.S. Virginia-class nuclear submarine that was discovered in Russian territorial waters on February 12.

According to data obtained by the Avia.pro news agency, we are talking about a special device that actually saved the crew of an American nuclear submarine from being destroyed by Russian anti-submarine aircraft and ships of the Pacific Fleet. We are talking about a sonar countermeasure device, which was fired after the Russian side used some kind of weapon against the submarine.

According to media reports, the device shot down by the American nuclear submarine subsequently sank, but was successfully discovered by the Russian military. It is known that the device is intended only to counter an attack and does not represent any kind of weaponry.

Experts note that the technology used in the target simulator is not so new, but the equipment lost by the American nuclear submarine will definitely help the Russian military modernize its weapons in order to avoid losing its advanced submarine by enemy fire in the future.

Earlier the Russian Ministry of Defense claims one of its frigates chased a U.S. Navy Virginia-class submarine out of an area where the Russian navy was conducting military exercises in territorial waters near the island of Urup in the Kuril archipelago on Feb. 12, 2022, at 10:40 am Moscow time. The U.S. Navy says it never happened.

According to Russian MOD, The U.S. submarine was operating in an area where the Russian navy was conducting military exercises in Russian Federation national waters near the island of Urup in the Kuril archipelago at 10:40 am Moscow time, the MOD claimed.

The ministry claimed that its surface ship communicated with the crew of the submarine via underwater sonar communication systems in Russian and English. It said the U.S. boat was messaged, “You are in the Russian territorial waters right now! Surface immediately!”

The crew of the submarine ignored the communication, the Russians claim.

U.S. Navy officials flatly denied the assertions.

“There is no truth to the Russian claims of our operations in their territorial waters,” said U.S. Navy Capt. Kyle Raines, a spokesman for U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, in a statement. “I will not comment on the precise location of our submarines, but we do fly, sail and operate safely in international waters.”

Asked if there was contact between the two ships in international waters, Raines said there was no encounter at all between the two forces.


havoc is offline  
Old 16th Feb 2022, 17:41
  #953 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: SE of there
Age: 44
Posts: 263
Received 51 Likes on 35 Posts
Originally Posted by Ninthace
Well I don't know what you know but I know what I know, so no. But then we would say that wouldn't we?
I know exactly the same thing as you. Reason I'm asking is that this is now, what, 4th or 5th time that Western inteligence were almost 100% sure Russians will attack on so and so date/event/whatever. Just curious what new trigger will be.
admikar is online now  
Old 16th Feb 2022, 17:55
  #954 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: UK
Age: 69
Posts: 1,418
Received 45 Likes on 25 Posts
Originally Posted by wunfootin
They lied to you abut Vietnam.
They lied to you about Iraq and Afghanistan,
They lied to you about Syria and Libya.
They lied to you about Honduras and Bolivia.
They lied to you about Assange and Russiagate.

So why the hell would you believe a word they tell you about the Ukraine?*

*Exceptions apply for frustrated armchair geriatrics who did not get to push buttons/fire things when it was the real Warsaw Pact they were facing. It must be soooo frustrating....
Crimea
Czechoslovakia
Hungary
Serbia
Bosnia
Chechnaya
Finland
Poland
Etc..
beardy is offline  
Old 16th Feb 2022, 18:01
  #955 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: not scotland
Posts: 362
Received 78 Likes on 39 Posts
https://wavellroom.com/2022/02/16/a-...kraine-crisis/

Good article from RUSI.
Toadstool is online now  
Old 16th Feb 2022, 18:23
  #956 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: Outer ring of HEL
Posts: 1,772
Received 380 Likes on 137 Posts
I say, blowing up buildings in your own country to justify an attack to Chechnya and then calling it a police action. Lo and behold, I must sit down.

Regarding Bosnia: russian troops were sent there starting 12th Jan 1996. What evidence are you looking for?

What comes to Serbia, the Russian troops entered Pristina "by accident" in 1999 and Moscow explained it that the troops' arrival was "a mistake". The soldiers had been ordered to leave "immediately", the Russian Foreign Minister, Mr Igor Ivanov said on CNN, reading a statement. The White House reacted saying it accepted Mr Ivanov's explanation "for now" but added that it wanted answers to Russia's investigation into the troop movement, CNN said.
(source, Irish times, june 12 1999)

what comes to ancient history: The fascist Finland shelling Mainila... oh please....

the US has made its mistakes no question but it would be incredibly naive and underestimation of the audience to try to white wash the deeds of Moscow.
Beamr is online now  
Old 16th Feb 2022, 18:32
  #957 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: UK
Age: 69
Posts: 1,418
Received 45 Likes on 25 Posts
Please give some evidence for Russian troops in Serbia and Bosnia BTW
Pre WW1 as part of the Greater Slavic movement in Russia revolutionary movements were financed and propagated, resulting in the start of the war.

The point is that Russia has form in this geographical area, including recently Crimea.

beardy is offline  
Old 16th Feb 2022, 19:13
  #958 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: GMT
Age: 53
Posts: 2,128
Received 208 Likes on 82 Posts
Originally Posted by ORAC
If they don’t attack, good. Still preparing it would appear.

https://twitter.com/ameliairheart/st...448970755?s=21
they’ve been preparing since late November. The only thing that’s changed is Biden and his shonky intelligence.

Putin is a chancer - and this time he’s had his bluff called, but there was never going to be an invasion and Biden’s entourage have escalated this to take the credit for de-escalating. When you’re weak, you have to find a way to appear strong.

you’ve all been had….
minigundiplomat is offline  
Old 16th Feb 2022, 20:42
  #959 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: PLanet Earth
Posts: 1,360
Received 115 Likes on 59 Posts
Originally Posted by minigundiplomat
Putin is a chancer - and this time he’s had his bluff called, but there was never going to be an invasion and Biden’s entourage have escalated this to take the credit for de-escalating. When you’re weak, you have to find a way to appear strong.
I tend to agree that currently both Putin and Biden are playing to their respective audience. I think it started by Putin as a real test how united NATO and Europe would be. Now seeing that even Eastern European states like Bulgaria are welcoming US Troops and all are agreeing on sanctions it became clear that Plan A was not really viable. Now it's about face saving and appearing strong for him and for Biden as well who has to make up for the Afghanistan mess. These alarmist Secret service (if it is really secret they are typically able to keep it as such - if information is leaked it is typically intended to be so) messages are messages for the public at home and in Europe to keep them in check.
Right now I don't really expect an invasion any more. Hope not to be proven wrong though.
henra is offline  
Old 16th Feb 2022, 21:30
  #960 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: sussex
Age: 75
Posts: 192
Received 2 Likes on 1 Post
I believe that the current situation is on hold whilst German and Russian administrations decide on the revisions required in order to bring the Molotov / Ribbentrop agreement up to date.
skridlov is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service

Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.