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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 23rd Feb 2022, 20:10
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Old 23rd Feb 2022, 20:27
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And so it starts….

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Old 23rd Feb 2022, 20:36
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Originally Posted by Beamr
if the right oligarks are chosen. By seizing the fortunes of the billionaires Putin has made, the billions Putin has hidden may be seized.
Otherwise... I doubt it. It takes too long for sanctions to bite, most probably he'll be lying in his own mausoleum in red square before the sanctions get him overthrown. Just look at North Korea, Iran or Cuba. What has sanctions really achieved in those countries in over half a century,
There was talk of potential war crimes against Putin, which would negate anymore future travel out of country and that would also hit the oligarchs and the Dumas harder if it was also aimed at them as a lot of them spend a considerable time out of Russia
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Old 23rd Feb 2022, 20:36
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Originally Posted by Beamr
if the right oligarks are chosen. By seizing the fortunes of the billionaires Putin has made, the billions Putin has hidden may be seized.
Otherwise... I doubt it. It takes too long for sanctions to bite, most probably he'll be lying in his own mausoleum in red square before the sanctions get him overthrown. Just look at North Korea, Iran or Cuba. What has sanctions really achieved in those countries in over half a century,
The limited sanctions currently being used are unlikely to have any meaningful impact.
If Biden and the EU are really serious, they need to halt all trade with Russia, and immediately freeze all financialaccounts associated with Russia - no if, ands, or buts. EVERYTHING!
Targeted sanctions are a waste of effort.
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Old 23rd Feb 2022, 21:10
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Let’s see what happens, plenty of false flags already - and publicity might call it off anyway…

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Old 23rd Feb 2022, 21:12
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And another…

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Old 23rd Feb 2022, 21:23
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Old 23rd Feb 2022, 21:46
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Old 23rd Feb 2022, 22:15
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Nothing more to add - this is directly from the Ukrainian President in the last few minutes.

Zelenskyy: Russia has approved an offensive against Ukraine

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Russia has approved an offensive against Ukraine.

In a message on Telegram in the last few minutes, Mr Zelenskyy said that Mr Putin has not replied to his invitation to hold talks.

His 10-minute address was given in Ukrainian and Russian.


Copy
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Old 24th Feb 2022, 00:31
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Originally Posted by tdracer
The limited sanctions currently being used are unlikely to have any meaningful impact.
If Biden and the EU are really serious, they need to halt all trade with Russia, and immediately freeze all financialaccounts associated with Russia - no if, ands, or buts. EVERYTHING!
Targeted sanctions are a waste of effort.
I suspect - or rather hope - that if Russian military action escalates to a full invasion (as it appears it may in the last few minutes) we'll see tranches 2 and 3 of sanctions.
One of the nuclear options would appear to be shutting them out of SWIFT.
Freezing and seizing would also be in that category.
I'm sure that Western Governments already have those options lined up, ready to execute in sequence, proportionate with what Russia does.
Don't unload the whole magazine at once.
I wonder what things will be like a few months down the track too.
Will there widespread consumer brand boycotts?
Russia could end up an absolute international pariah because of this.
Life will get very tedious if you can't get parts for your armoured Bentley and especially if Mrs Kuznetsov is pouting because her supply of various LVMH branded trinkets, clothing and other nice things aren't available.
No more partying in Ibiza or vacations in North Goa.
And even if you can travel to the EU - the passport officer looks like he's stepped in a turd as he lets you in, and no-one will drink with you...
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Old 24th Feb 2022, 00:34
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My wife, who is Russian, predicted Russia would invade. She predicted when and how. She nailed it.

Unfortunately’ she is also certain that it will end up with nuclear strikes when Russia ultimately starts to lose.

I am convinced that she is correct.
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Old 24th Feb 2022, 01:47
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Originally Posted by Baldeep Inminj
My wife, who is Russian, predicted Russia would invade. She predicted when and how. She nailed it.

Unfortunately’ she is also certain that it will end up with nuclear strikes when Russia ultimately starts to lose.

I am convinced that she is correct.
There's talk among guys who monitor radios of strategic aviation frequencies coming alive. Aircraft based at Engels could orbit overhead the airfield and cover the entirety of Ukraine with KH-101.

Personally, I think the russian military system wouldn't allow a nuclear strike to go ahead. Someone would stop him at that point, imo. I certainly hope so.
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Old 24th Feb 2022, 02:01
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Another messianic speech from Putin televised to the nation has just concluded.
Announces a `special military operation' in Donbas... https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60454795
CNN team reporting explosions near Kyiv.
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Old 24th Feb 2022, 02:30
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Explosions reported everywhere.

MLRS launch:

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Old 24th Feb 2022, 02:45
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It has kicked off in a big way:

- Russian Strategic Bomber Force HF net was heard by OSINT listeners and multiple bombers now airborne - so possible cruise missile attacks in depth against military and infrastructure targets.
- Capital Kyiv under artillery / missile attack.
- Putin has threatened: "consequences they have never seen" to any country that attempts to intervene.
- Putin states he intends to demilitarize the Ukraine.
- Russia’s airborne forces are attempting to take control of the airport in Kyiv to they can fly in forces to occupy the capitol city.
- 2 x Turkish AF A-400M stuck at that same airport.
- An amphibious assault on the key port city of Mariupol is now underway.
- Ground forces now moving in from Belarus,Crimea & from
Russia.
- Cruise missile + ballistic missile attacks against C2 facilities in Kyiv.
- Biden not even speaking to G7 leaders until tomorrow.

Last edited by RAFEngO74to09; 24th Feb 2022 at 03:10.
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Old 24th Feb 2022, 02:48
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HF traffic of the Bears.


One of the A400Ms came up on ads-b on the ground and then disappeared again.
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Old 24th Feb 2022, 03:13
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This is like watching Desert Storm, but from the other side.
Which I guess is Putin's intention.
Bloody awful.
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Old 24th Feb 2022, 03:17
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Originally Posted by unmanned_droid
HF traffic of the Bears.

https://twitter.com/thenewarea51/sta...1_c10&ref_url=

One of the A400Ms came up on ads-b on the ground and then disappeared again.
I have amended my post above - I didn't realize that the A400Ms are at the same airport that is reported under airborne assault by Russian forces.
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Old 24th Feb 2022, 03:19
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Originally Posted by tartare
This is like watching Desert Storm, but from the other side.
Which I guess is Putin's intention.
Bloody awful.
On the 31st anniversary of the start of the Ground War during DESERT STORM too - with US SF going in late 23 Feb 91 and the main assault 24 Feb 91.
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Old 24th Feb 2022, 03:22
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Well pointed out - I didn't realise that - perhaps it would seem to be more than coincidence then.
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