Originally Posted by
ORAC
Possible timeline:
Russian forces will now attack the Ukrainian forces along the coast to “liberate” Mariupol and the rest of the Donetsk Oblat at the “request” of their newly recognised government.
Ukranian forces will defend and Russia, invoking their newly signed “friendship” treaties will claim it is a Ukranian attack on the new republics and an act of war and then strike south from Belarus towards Kyiv as a “counter attack” to remove the government and then install a “patriotic” government who will ask for assistance to remove “NATO collaborators” and a purge of the country…
And vastly more dangerous is this - it's clear that Big Gay Vlad is employing his well-proven tactic of probing with a sharp object until he meets resistance.
If he goes all the way in Ukraine without meeting NATO military resistance, does he go for broke and hit the Suwalki gap? Poland would go mental, but the question will be whether NATO - collectively - counters any such conquest. Do it quickly enough and you have a fait accompli. Are Biden, Scholz, Macron et al going to risk war? Over Lithuania?
For the avoidance of doubt, I believe that we should - Article 5 is either followed or it's not. If it's not, then NATO folds - and BGV wins bigger.