Is Ukraine about to have a war?
So yes, I think there is a mindset among some of Russia's power-elite that "You will, by Bog, give us an equal seat at the table - or there won't be a table."
Murder/suicides ("If I'm going to go, I'll take as many with me as possible!") are not exactly unknown on this planet.
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Maybe we accept the faked referendum results and play the long game...an aging Putin and a restless populace. Combined with sanctions and an economy going down the pan, maybe just let Russia take care of Russia. The sanctions to be reviewed if and when Ukraine returns to 2014 lines?
Working on the premise that, with the absence of any UKR/NATO tactical nukes there is no “escalation ladder” if they employ battlefield nukes. So, would the US risk New York to save Odessa?
https://una.org.uk/sites/default/fil...-_ted_seay.pdf
https://una.org.uk/sites/default/fil...-_ted_seay.pdf
If Putin actually uses a tactical nuke then it is an existential thread to Western Democracies. This is a red line that he can’t be allowed to cross without massive consequences
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Agree...how would the west respond to a tactical nuke? If responding in kind, then surely it has to be a cruise missile...ICBMs just raise the game massively, whether sub or land based. And what is the target? If it is within Russia, then the ICBMs may come from the east!
Maybe we accept the faked referendum results and play the long game...an aging Putin and a restless populace. Combined with sanctions and an economy going down the pan, maybe just let Russia take care of Russia. The sanctions to be reviewed if and when Ukraine returns to 2014 lines?
Maybe we accept the faked referendum results and play the long game...an aging Putin and a restless populace. Combined with sanctions and an economy going down the pan, maybe just let Russia take care of Russia. The sanctions to be reviewed if and when Ukraine returns to 2014 lines?
You are looking at the full weight of conventional power. Mostly sea, sub and air launched. Shock and awe the likes of which we have not seen.
All this would come with an ultimatum that another nuke strike would result in a massive retaliatory nuke strike.
It's the second Putin nuke that worries me.
I have no military background or experience. So I have to ask this. It seems Putin has now threatened the entire West with the use of nukes. The French, the UK and the the USA are out there with with Subs, I assume ready to launch.
Has Putin got so deranged that he is willing to destroy the world to prove a point. ( what that point is, I don’t know).
I note with interest that even China has started backing away from Putin. What scares me now, he is becoming increasingly isolated and mad.
Has Putin got so deranged that he is willing to destroy the world to prove a point. ( what that point is, I don’t know).
I note with interest that even China has started backing away from Putin. What scares me now, he is becoming increasingly isolated and mad.
As far as I know, there have been no public disclosures of a change in the combat readiness of the strategic missile force this time round, and Western politicians are not showing any signs of easing the pressure on Russia. Neither has Putin stated categorically that he would use nukes if annexed territory was recaptured by Ukraine. He instead used language that was suggestive but open ended.
In summary, I would say that we haven't seen anything that we haven't seen before, and there isn't a great deal to be worried about yet.
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If Putin uses a tactical nuke on Ukraine, the West, which is primarily the USA and the West, will strike all Russian units in Ukraine and on the border of Ukraine with a massive conventional strike or strikes until completely (and I mean completely) destroyed.
You are looking at the full weight of conventional power. Mostly sea, sub and air launched. Shock and awe the likes of which we have not seen.
All this would come with an ultimatum that another nuke strike would result in a massive retaliatory nuke strike.
It's the second Putin nuke that worries me.
You are looking at the full weight of conventional power. Mostly sea, sub and air launched. Shock and awe the likes of which we have not seen.
All this would come with an ultimatum that another nuke strike would result in a massive retaliatory nuke strike.
It's the second Putin nuke that worries me.
Might the odd extra boomer be putting to sea from NATO ports? Not as secret as usual?
I believe we can put a second one to sea without too much difficulty.
Or would that irritate the bear which is trying to intimidate the good people?
And is our boomer at sea still sailing with BoJo's doomsday letter< I suppose so.
I believe we can put a second one to sea without too much difficulty.
Or would that irritate the bear which is trying to intimidate the good people?
And is our boomer at sea still sailing with BoJo's doomsday letter< I suppose so.
Last edited by langleybaston; 22nd Sep 2022 at 21:47. Reason: addendum
I see what you mean, there was another one which I cannot find, Not seen this one before, very brave, you can hear them taking small rounds.
RG Poulussen on Twitter: "Very brave men flying a Ukrainian helicopter attacking Russian positions near Kyiv. Very low and getting hit by small arm fire. https://t.co/7Hcj6bs2v2" / Twitter
and
Analyze & Educate on Twitter: "Russian Mi-28 attack helicopter flying low over the sea. https://t.co/qWgRD7vfFA" / Twitter
this does not have any downwash either.
Status-6 on Twitter: "A Russian Mil Mi-26 heavy transport helicopter was reportedly spotted in the area of Alushta in southern Crimea not long ago and headed towards Novofedorivka, where massive explosions took place at the Saki Air Base today. https://t.co/ACzHMSJ69T https://t.co/lbY7iIh4EF" / Twitter
RG Poulussen on Twitter: "Very brave men flying a Ukrainian helicopter attacking Russian positions near Kyiv. Very low and getting hit by small arm fire. https://t.co/7Hcj6bs2v2" / Twitter
and
Analyze & Educate on Twitter: "Russian Mi-28 attack helicopter flying low over the sea. https://t.co/qWgRD7vfFA" / Twitter
this does not have any downwash either.
Status-6 on Twitter: "A Russian Mil Mi-26 heavy transport helicopter was reportedly spotted in the area of Alushta in southern Crimea not long ago and headed towards Novofedorivka, where massive explosions took place at the Saki Air Base today. https://t.co/ACzHMSJ69T https://t.co/lbY7iIh4EF" / Twitter
A few months back, there was a video of one of Putin's tame TV commentators asked the rhetorical question, "Of what use is the World - without Russia in it?"
So yes, I think there is a mindset among some of Russia's power-elite that "You will, by Bog, give us an equal seat at the table - or there won't be a table."
Murder/suicides ("If I'm going to go, I'll take as many with me as possible!") are not exactly unknown on this planet.
So yes, I think there is a mindset among some of Russia's power-elite that "You will, by Bog, give us an equal seat at the table - or there won't be a table."
Murder/suicides ("If I'm going to go, I'll take as many with me as possible!") are not exactly unknown on this planet.
If you are trying to talk down a guy like putin with a gun (nukes), you dont say, "hey dont nuke ukraine or we will nuke you." you say, put down the gun.
we all know if he shoots, we shoot.
Agree...how would the west respond to a tactical nuke? If responding in kind, then surely it has to be a cruise missile...ICBMs just raise the game massively, whether sub or land based. And what is the target? If it is within Russia, then the ICBMs may come from the east!
Maybe we accept the faked referendum results and play the long game...an aging Putin and a restless populace. Combined with sanctions and an economy going down the pan, maybe just let Russia take care of Russia. The sanctions to be reviewed if and when Ukraine returns to 2014 lines?
Maybe we accept the faked referendum results and play the long game...an aging Putin and a restless populace. Combined with sanctions and an economy going down the pan, maybe just let Russia take care of Russia. The sanctions to be reviewed if and when Ukraine returns to 2014 lines?
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Not suggesting it's the right strategy, but is it something that could appeal to the decision makers? And the two differences with 2014 are (a) that Putin has exposed the dire state of his own forces, and (b) sanctions are gradually bringing his economy down. Both might encourage the locals to bring him down. Of course, he could be replaced by something worse!
I foresee two options if he does use a nuke, the first (more likely) that he be issued with an ultimatum to vacate his forces from Ukraine and, failing that, NATO unleashes a conventional massive strike on his forces, effectively finishing them off, forcing him to concede and withdraw. The second is that (again, following an ultimatum), we nuke some strictly military target with direct connection to Ukraine, also with the same aim i.e. that he withdraw his forces.
If Russia responds with another strike then we could be looking at a wider conflict where we go after his C+C and missile forces.
Increasingly I think the likes of China is key here. Word is that they too are getting increasingly alarmed at the situation and are pushing for some sort of diplomatic resolution. As someone noted above, the fact were are spiralling into a potential catastrophe for no reason whatsoever is madness personified.
If Russia responds with another strike then we could be looking at a wider conflict where we go after his C+C and missile forces.
Increasingly I think the likes of China is key here. Word is that they too are getting increasingly alarmed at the situation and are pushing for some sort of diplomatic resolution. As someone noted above, the fact were are spiralling into a potential catastrophe for no reason whatsoever is madness personified.
They have been warned enough.
we've all been hoping month after month since the war began (or even before) for that sum of all fears scene, or akin to actually to play out.
we can carry on hoping, but to rely on that happening when he has such a Nazi like crip on the country. And with a generation of people brainwashed.
The Russian people have there definitive answer now, and had there chances, maybe they might get a few more with some clarity.
we can carry on hoping, but to rely on that happening when he has such a Nazi like crip on the country. And with a generation of people brainwashed.
The Russian people have there definitive answer now, and had there chances, maybe they might get a few more with some clarity.
Not suggesting it's the right strategy, but is it something that could appeal to the decision makers? And the two differences with 2014 are (a) that Putin has exposed the dire state of his own forces, and (b) sanctions are gradually bringing his economy down. Both might encourage the locals to bring him down. Of course, he could be replaced by something worse!
Ukraine will continue to be supported by its allies and will not surrender as you are suggesting.
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Any use of a nuke is a red line, and you cannot let that slide period!
If you do, the idea of Mutual Assured Destruction goes right out of the window, if you open that can of worms, you have to live with the consequences and cannot ever put the lid back on it..
I wish people would stop using the word “Tactical” as if a “Tactical” nuclear weapon is ok, it’s a nuke period, and any nuclear weapon, regardless of size is NOT acceptable in any shape or form.
THE ONLY RESPONSE IS A NUCLEAR RESPONSE, because if you do not adhere to the concept of MAD and ignore it, you are in effect okaying the use of nuclear weapons in any future conflict, and there are countries out there that will take advantage that failure to the detriment of us all.
If you do, the idea of Mutual Assured Destruction goes right out of the window, if you open that can of worms, you have to live with the consequences and cannot ever put the lid back on it..
I wish people would stop using the word “Tactical” as if a “Tactical” nuclear weapon is ok, it’s a nuke period, and any nuclear weapon, regardless of size is NOT acceptable in any shape or form.
THE ONLY RESPONSE IS A NUCLEAR RESPONSE, because if you do not adhere to the concept of MAD and ignore it, you are in effect okaying the use of nuclear weapons in any future conflict, and there are countries out there that will take advantage that failure to the detriment of us all.
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Any use of a nuke is a red line, and you cannot let that slide period!
If you do, the idea of Mutual Assured Destruction goes right out of the window, if you open that can of worms, you have to live with the consequences and cannot ever put the lid back on it..
I wish people would stop using the word “Tactical” as if a “Tactical” nuclear weapon is ok, it’s a nuke period, and any nuclear weapon, regardless of size is NOT acceptable in any shape or form.
THE ONLY RESPONSE IS A NUCLEAR RESPONSE, because if you do not adhere to the concept of MAD and ignore it, you are in effect okaying the use of nuclear weapons in any future conflict, and there are countries out there that will take advantage that failure to the detriment of us all.
If you do, the idea of Mutual Assured Destruction goes right out of the window, if you open that can of worms, you have to live with the consequences and cannot ever put the lid back on it..
I wish people would stop using the word “Tactical” as if a “Tactical” nuclear weapon is ok, it’s a nuke period, and any nuclear weapon, regardless of size is NOT acceptable in any shape or form.
THE ONLY RESPONSE IS A NUCLEAR RESPONSE, because if you do not adhere to the concept of MAD and ignore it, you are in effect okaying the use of nuclear weapons in any future conflict, and there are countries out there that will take advantage that failure to the detriment of us all.
An "appropriate response" is how is has been phrased