Is Ukraine about to have a war?
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,071
Received 2,939 Likes
on
1,252 Posts
A possible reason why Russia has pulled their subs etc out of Sevastopol, Ukrainian remote suicide boats..
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news...in-sevastopol/
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news...in-sevastopol/
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,071
Received 2,939 Likes
on
1,252 Posts
More emerging about freed hostages. The Bird is free too, as is the pregnant Medic. 
..
As part of prisoner exchange, Viktor Medvedchuk, Putin's right-hand man in Ukraine was swapped for Azovstal defenders, including commanders Dmytro "Volyna" Volontyrets and Svyatoslav "Kalyna" Palamar.
Translate Tweet
Translate Tweet
..
Last edited by NutLoose; 21st Sep 2022 at 22:31.
Classic, a couple of Russians telling the camera they are Pro Russia and intend to go to Ukraine tomorrow to fight etc, BUT they don’t look happy when the Russian police are forcibly loading them onto a bus the same night.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/...65542892457985
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/...65542892457985
A possible reason why Russia has pulled their subs etc out of Sevastopol, Ukrainian remote suicide boats..
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news...in-sevastopol/
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news...in-sevastopol/
Would think that using a RIB form would give a higher probability of getting through to the target by reduced signature. plonk the bang under the flotation chambers, and apply liberal flat plate RAM panels over the engines way down low. If it keeps the Russian Navy sunbathing is Sochi and Novo, it is a good move.
As far as "cavitation" goes, Kilo's aren't gonna do that for very long by choice, even in such miserable acoustic conditions as the Black Sea. There needs to be enough ensonofication of the waters there to give the sonar operators tinnitus.
Russia's threat is enough justification to get down and maintaining attack solutions on every boat in the Black Sea, same with anything out of Petra or Polyarny, and tracking everything that passes the straits of Denmark.
This ones good, Russians are welcoming home a RUaF pilot as part of POW exchange claiming he shot down 87 UKR Frogfoots'. Ukraine only had 17 to begin with 
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Good well researched information…
Brief thread to share some insights from our previous research on what to expect the Russian mobilization system to produce.
Brief thread to share some insights from our previous research on what to expect the Russian mobilization system to produce.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/...-over-ukraine/
Success denied: Finding ground truth in the air war over Ukraine
Success denied: Finding ground truth in the air war over Ukraine
Putin has really isolated himself, now even North Korea declines selling ammunition to Russia.
BBC: North Korea denies supplying weapons to Russia
North Korea says it has never sold weapons to Russia and has no plans to do so in the future, following US reports that Moscow was turning to Pyongyang to replenish stockpiles.
BBC: North Korea denies supplying weapons to Russia
North Korea says it has never sold weapons to Russia and has no plans to do so in the future, following US reports that Moscow was turning to Pyongyang to replenish stockpiles.
FDR
"Question: how many nukes did Ukraine keep after 1991? Does Russia really think that all nukes were handed over in the utterly abysmal, shambolic transfer of devices following the morally bankrupt treaty that Russia entered into to maintain and defend the integrity of Ukraine, along with the rest of the world that was a party to the sell-out of Ukraine at that time? I suspect that not every bucket was returned to the shelf. Would be quietly happy to see Ukraine be provided facility to end Russia and specifically "the Dumma", those that have enabled Vlad."
"Question: how many nukes did Ukraine keep after 1991? Does Russia really think that all nukes were handed over in the utterly abysmal, shambolic transfer of devices following the morally bankrupt treaty that Russia entered into to maintain and defend the integrity of Ukraine, along with the rest of the world that was a party to the sell-out of Ukraine at that time? I suspect that not every bucket was returned to the shelf. Would be quietly happy to see Ukraine be provided facility to end Russia and specifically "the Dumma", those that have enabled Vlad."
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Ukraine held about one third of the Soviet nuclear arsenal, the third largest in the world at the time, as well as significant means of its[u] design and production.[2] (my bold) 130 UR-100N intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) with six warheads each, 46 RT-23 Molodets ICBMs with ten warheads apiece, as well as 33 heavy bombers, totaling approximately 1,700 warheads remained on Ukrainian territory.[3] Formally, these weapons were controlled by the Commonwealth of Independent States.[4] In 1994, Ukraine agreed to destroy the weapons, and to join the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).[5][6]
Ukrainians are most inventive! Could there be enough parts left over to assemble a number of warheads...? Can't help but think putin's bridge would be an ideal ^first^ target.
DoT
Last edited by Dead on Time; 22nd Sep 2022 at 07:48.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/document/2...e-kept-nuclear
Ukraine could not have kept the nuclear warheads even if it wanted to
Ukraine could not have kept the nuclear warheads even if it wanted to
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Often in Jersey, but mainly in the past.
Age: 79
Posts: 7,812
Received 137 Likes
on
64 Posts
https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/...-over-ukraine/
Success denied: Finding ground truth in the air war over Ukraine
Success denied: Finding ground truth in the air war over Ukraine
a force structure centered predominately on manned aircraft, creating a situation where the force is too costly to risk and too small to sustain losses during a prolonged war of attrition.
..that's a joke, BTW.
So can Putin still survive this?
It would seem his only hope is to placate internationally and deceive domestically.
By withdrawing to the pre-2014 borders, he stops the war in its tracks - his referenda could be used to show overwhelming support in the regions for UKR sovereignty (which is probably true anyway).
On that basis he could claim a victory over the 'nazis' in the region and respect for the sovereignty of UKR whilst in reality he skulks back to his own borders and licks his wounds.
He could also claim that his partial mobilisation was the threat that finally persuaded the West to back down so he could safely withdraw from UKR.
It would be a tricky sell to the Russian public but they mostly seem to believe what they are told to believe.
It would seem his only hope is to placate internationally and deceive domestically.
By withdrawing to the pre-2014 borders, he stops the war in its tracks - his referenda could be used to show overwhelming support in the regions for UKR sovereignty (which is probably true anyway).
On that basis he could claim a victory over the 'nazis' in the region and respect for the sovereignty of UKR whilst in reality he skulks back to his own borders and licks his wounds.
He could also claim that his partial mobilisation was the threat that finally persuaded the West to back down so he could safely withdraw from UKR.
It would be a tricky sell to the Russian public but they mostly seem to believe what they are told to believe.
https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/document/2...e-kept-nuclear
Ukraine could not have kept the nuclear warheads even if it wanted to
Ukraine could not have kept the nuclear warheads even if it wanted to
It may be improbable, but is it impossible?
Right now, (to head off the outcry's...) we have a terrorist state that has thousands of nukes in highly questionable condition that are being used as a threat towards a sovereign state that has been terrorised and abused by Putin; Putin additionally now threatens the UK and various and sundry other states. That is the real world that we live in today. happy thought for the day.
Considering there have been a number Russian puppets in charge of Ukraine at times since independence I think it vanishingly unlikely they have a secret stockpile of nukes anywhere.