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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 19th Sep 2022, 17:49
  #9381 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by uxb99
I hope the answer is will Russian powers force him to care? While Putin has his finger on the button Russia does have a track record for not allowing itself to be destroyed without reason. Cuban missile crisis has several examples of this.
At least let's hope so.
Well, the Soviets operated under the influence of the Marxist historical dialectic, which said that the ultimate success of socialism was inevitable. Why risk national suicide for something that will happen anyway, in the fullness of time? Better to "live to fight another day."

I have no idea whether the Russian mindset applies that same dialectic to Putinism
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Old 19th Sep 2022, 18:17
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
To put this disturbing topic into an aviation context: I wonder if they have (without making a lot of noise about it) already fitted one of the Kinzhal missiles with a nuclear warhead, and could thus from their own airspace over their own territory launch one with high confidence that it would not be intercepted.
Why would he need a Kinzhal for this. A normal ballistic 9K723 Iskander-M would do. As a ballistic Missile with M6,3 that is not easy to intercept either. Word is that Kinzhal is basically an air launched Iskander- M.
What supports this assumption:
It is striking that the announced range from a Tu-22 is 1000km more than from the MiG31. I doubt that this is from the Tu flying higher than the MiG, Strangely the combat range of the Mig 31 is supposed to be 1400km, the combat range for the Tu- 22 is given as 2400km. Kinzhal range from the Tu is announced as 3000km, from the MiG 2000km. Now do the Maths. P.S. the ballistic Iskander has an official range of 500km.
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Old 19th Sep 2022, 18:19
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Should one nuke be fired on Ukraine, we may respond only by giving them nuclear weapons and let them decide. Could be enough of a deterrent.
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Old 19th Sep 2022, 18:22
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Interestingly this very same subject has now emerged in this IMO good twitter account as well with various opinions and more various arguments.


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Old 19th Sep 2022, 18:25
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Interesting overview of Kherson offensive by a Russian military analyst Atomic Cherry describing 🇺🇦 tactics, showing that 🇺🇦 infantry is slowly creeping up to Kherson, supplying of 🇷🇺 groups is complicated, the situation for 🇷🇺 forces is "difficult".
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Old 19th Sep 2022, 18:27
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You can call it what you want, tactical or not, but the fallout would reach western cities and as I read it trigger article 5. The only response to that is to tell Russia bluntly, you fire one nuclear weapon and we will respond in like and massively, a bully only backs down when they see the writing on the wall.
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Old 19th Sep 2022, 18:32
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Originally Posted by henra
Why would he need a Kinzhal for this. A normal ballistic 9K723 Iskander-M would do. As a ballistic Missile with M6,3 that is not easy to intercept either. Word is that Kinzhal is basically an air launched Iskander- M.
What supports this assumption:
It is striking that the announced range from a Tu-22 is 1000km more than from the MiG31. I doubt that this is from the Tu flying higher than the MiG, Strangely the combat range of the Mig 31 is supposed to be 1400km, the combat range for the Tu- 22 is given as 2400km. Kinzhal range from the Tu is announced as 3000km, from the MiG 2000km. Now do the Maths. P.S. the ballistic Iskander has an official range of 500km.
A variety of Theater Ballistic Missiles (SCUD among others) was the impetus behind NATO trying to put together (IIRC as a sub set of AACS? it's been a few years) a valid TBM defense posture in the mid 90's. We are a quarter of a century into that initiative, and it's one of the things that still attracts funding as far as I can gather.
This program informs the deployment of a number of missile systems, like Patriot Version {something} to Poland which got the Russians all in an uproar. Aegis ashore has similarly upset the Russians. There was an ongoing dialogue with Russia on all of these things, but they suspended their participation in 2013, and once the annexation of Ukraine in 2014 arose, no further progress has been made.
Starting in 2003, NATO and Russia engaged in Theatre Ballistic Missile Defence (TBMD)-related discussions and activities in the framework of the NATO-Russia Council (NRC). From 2010 onwards, discussions and activities expanded from TBMD towards territorial BMD. In that period, NATO and Russia considered possible areas for cooperation in this field. Progress, however, was limited. In October 2013, NATO-Russia BMD-related discussions were suspended by Russia. In April 2014, NATO suspended all practical cooperation with Russia in response to Russia’s illegal and illegitimate annexation of Crimea, while remaining open to periodic, focused and meaningful dialogue, in line with the dual-track approach. NATO BMD is neither designed nor able to undermine Russia’s strategic deterrence capability.
I'll suggest to you that NATO TBMD is a counter to the Iskander-M (albeit not a perfect one, nothing is)
.
Kinzhal, if launched form a Mig or a Tu, does not fit into that model, and would perhaps for that reason (and others to include the substantial technical challenges "Mach 10" missile presents) render that aspect of air defense untenable.

I don't think you can cut and past Iskander for Khizhal, but thanks for getting my thinking cap better aligned.
Originally Posted by NutLoose
You can call it what you want, tactical or not, but the (1) fallout would reach western cities and (2) as I read it trigger article 5.
1. Depends on the wind. 2. Yeah, it might. I sincerely hope that various ministerial discussions have been ongoing since February so that all of the parties inside NATO have a consensus on "if they do this, what do we all do? Let's agree now so that when it happens we are prepared"
I may also be wishing for a pony for Christmas, in point 2.
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Old 19th Sep 2022, 18:39
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Originally Posted by uxb99
Can we assume a tactical nuke strike would just be a scorched earth policy by Putin? Or can something be gained from using one?
The only thing I can see that Putin will gain from the use of a tactical nuke, is a very large hole in the earth where Moscow or St. Petersburg used to be. I suspect that Biden has made that clear to him.


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Old 19th Sep 2022, 18:44
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
A variety of Theater Ballistic Missiles (SCUD among others) was the impetus behind NATO trying to put together (IIRC as a sub set of AACS? it's been a few years) a valid TBM defense posture in the mid 90's. We are a quarter of a century into that initiative, and it's one of the things that still attracts funding as far as I can gather.
This program informs the deployment of a number of missile systems, like Patriot Version {something} to Poland which got the Russians all in an uproar. Aegis ashore has similarly upset the Russians. There was an ongoing dialogue with Russia on all of these things, but they suspended their participation in 2013, and once the annexation of Ukraine in 2014 arose, no further progress has been made.

I'll suggest to you that NATO TBMD is a counter to the Iskander-M (albeit not a perfect one, nothing is) in part due to the early warning aspect of BMD architecture.
Kinzhal, if launched form a Mig or a Tu, does not fit into that model, and would perhaps for that reason (and others to include the substantial technical challenges "Mach 10" missile presents) render that aspect of air defense untenable.

I don't think you can cut and past Iskander for Khizhal, but thanks for getting my thinking cap better aligned.
1. Depends on the wind. 2. Yeah, it might. I sincerely hope that various ministerial discussions have been ongoing since February so that all of the parties inside NATO have a consensus on "if they do this, what do we all do? Let's agree now so that when it happens we are prepared"
I may also be wishing for a pony for Christmas, in point 2.

Some Patriots might prove useful then?

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Old 19th Sep 2022, 18:46
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This is the demented fool spouting it all.

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Old 19th Sep 2022, 18:50
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Multiple sources say UKR forces have entered Luhansk oblast and first town secured. Also some geolocation done apparently.
This is somewhat big as thats the easternmost area of Ukraine.


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Old 19th Sep 2022, 19:00
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
I'll suggest to you that NATO TBMD is a counter to the Iskander-M (albeit not a perfect one, nothing is) in part due to the early warning aspect of BMD architecture.
Kinzhal, if launched form a Mig or a Tu, does not fit into that model, and would perhaps for that reason (and others to include the substantial technical challenges "Mach 10" missile presents) render that aspect of air defense untenable.
Agreed that some of the prerequisites for BMD might not be fulfilled for the Kinzhal. I do wonder though how the flight profile of the latter is. I heavily doubt that it will achieve and sustain >>Mach 6 at altitudes below 50k ft. Rather 100k ft or higher. That leaves the question how high is needed for the BMD to effectively engage?!
At >100k ft and M >>6 it will also not be capable of significant evasive maneuvering. Turn radius will probably be about the size of Poland.
I understand it will be more difficult to intercept and less predictable. I don't buy into this: 'It is impossible to be intercepted'. Does Ukraine have the ability to do so? No. But nor do they have the ability to systematically intercept 'normal' ballistic missiles.

Last edited by henra; 19th Sep 2022 at 20:06.
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Old 19th Sep 2022, 19:06
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But there are glimmers of hope

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Old 19th Sep 2022, 19:12
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Allegedly military conscription Russian style

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Old 19th Sep 2022, 19:55
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Pro-Russian "Vostok" battalion commander Aleksandr Khodakovsky says Ukraine continues transferring forces in preparation for further offensives in such a way that prevents Russians from even thinking of advancing themselves.
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Old 19th Sep 2022, 20:15
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Originally Posted by WB627
Some Patriots might prove useful then?
I cannot speak to how the Patriot system handles the "Mach 10" class of cruise missile, so my reply is "no idea."
The other problem is "Where do you choose to lay down your BMD coverage, and how?" That's a situational decision.
I do not think (this is a guess) that you'll see a U.S. Patriot unit deployed to Ukraine: they aren't in NATO.
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Old 19th Sep 2022, 20:54
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Originally Posted by WB627
The only thing I can see that Putin will gain from the use of a tactical nuke, is a very large hole in the earth where Moscow or St. Petersburg used to be. I suspect that Biden has made that clear to him.
For many reasons, if a nuclear reponse were to be authorised, it is a lot easier for NATO to make the decision to respond against a command centre in an isolated location or at a empty area of land/sea, than against a mass population centre. Did I not see a picture recently of Putin in Moscow rather than the rempte base in the mountains where he had effectively quarantined hiimself for most of the last 6-months. Perhaps he has been running some scenario analysis of his own.

The relevant ABM assets in the Western suite are not only the land based ones, and not only the US ones. There is quite a lot of NATO shipping in the Med and in the Baltic. It is not just the US shipping that is relevant in the ABM context. It is also worth paying attention to the tasking of the relevant NATO or national shipping further West in Europe. I have long thought that some types seem to hang around near particular home ports - much more than in previous decades when they did not carry such relevant systems.
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Old 19th Sep 2022, 21:22
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Foe want of a nail. The demise of the Russian Federation due to a lack of precast concrete…

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Old 19th Sep 2022, 21:25
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😀😀😀😀

Girkin is trolling hard Vladislav Volodin, speaker of the Russian State Duma, who said Washington is not happy with the Ukrainian victory in the Kharkiv region
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Old 19th Sep 2022, 23:20
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Russia is playing with fire once more.

[aviation content! (just... )]

Missile strikes target the Mykolaev NPP support structure, landing adjacent to the containment structures,

Surely there is a point where the yellow streak inside the body of our politicians and representatives in the UN finds a set of bones that approximate a spine, and they finally declare Russia a Terrorist State. A tiny baltic state had the intestinal fortitude to call it asa they see it.

Attacking a NPP is utter reckless terrorism, Kangnam nukular style, and this is the 3rd time Russia has done so. They risk contaminating NATO countries and those that seem to have a foot in each camp...

Time for window cleaning?
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