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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Old 16th Oct 2022, 03:22
  #10581 (permalink)  
fdr
 
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Drone interception

The drones from Iran, are an irritant or worse. Interdiction would seem to benefit from the use of a lower speed and agile aircraft, like a PC-7/9/21, Tucano or similar with a mini-gun. This won't survive in the front line, but away from he front lines SAMs, that would seem to be an option. AH-6 etc are a bit not he slow side to be able to intercept. Tracking radar is critical, but, Ukraine is pretty smart on putting systems together. Air to Air doesn't result in a high risk to the citizens on the ground, after the round has done its bit with converting kinetic energy to distance, the potential energy on its descent to the planet (blue one, not red, red is Elon's paradise). (there are lots of SO2Gs sitting in Belgrade awaiting buyers. They have twin M1 .50's in the nose, which is a bit more than desirable for drone plinking).

Heck, the Ukrainians can always invite the Russian student pilots to bring their rides along, with/without hot seats, and add some mini-guns under them and go plinking Iranian drone. They are only 150K US-250K US for clean ones with books. Guess the Russians won't be big on handing over the logs for any planes that get donated to Ukraine.... Pity.
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Old 16th Oct 2022, 03:45
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It appears the training of the mobilised troops is going well, two of them have already racked up an impressive score during training.




Last edited by NutLoose; 16th Oct 2022 at 04:09.
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Old 16th Oct 2022, 04:44
  #10583 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
They are now blaming the Ukrainians for their failed missile launch in Belogrod and are getting complaints about mobilising chronic alcoholics.



https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/s...67856914755586
Wow, watched all of that video ..... turns out Ukrainians are 'white negroes'. Way to go Russia......
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Old 16th Oct 2022, 06:48
  #10584 (permalink)  
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Thread on the problems the Russians are having with mobilised, non-combat experienced, officers not understanding the importance of drones.

Long may u5 continue - and something that should be hammered into the heads of the British and other NATO chains of command…

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...950434816.html
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Old 16th Oct 2022, 09:06
  #10585 (permalink)  
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"An intelligence assessment shared in recent days with Ukrainian and U.S. officials contends that Iran’s armaments industry is preparing a first shipment of Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar missiles, two well-known Iranian short-range ballistic missiles" to Russia.
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Old 16th Oct 2022, 09:22
  #10586 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by fdr;
Throwing untrained and unwilling troops into a meatgrinder to satisfy the ego of the Dear Leader with the predictable outcome.
Adolf Hitler's playbook. Didn't help him ether.
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Old 16th Oct 2022, 10:29
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Originally Posted by Timmy Tomkins
Adolf Hitler's playbook. Didn't help him ether.
A bit different I am afraid. In that case, the aggressor faced overwhelming odds. Including massed attacks on 2 major fronts and carpet bombing. Ukraine is the underdog here.
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Old 16th Oct 2022, 10:46
  #10588 (permalink)  
 
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Request to go dark over Kherson.

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Old 16th Oct 2022, 10:52
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Originally Posted by ORAC
"An intelligence assessment shared in recent days with Ukrainian and U.S. officials contends that Iran’s armaments industry is preparing a first shipment of Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar missiles, two well-known Iranian short-range ballistic missiles" to Russia.
dunno what significance the "Israel's Minister of Diaspora Affairs" has in the grand scheme of things but he said

This morning it was reported that Iran is transferring ballistic missiles to Russia. The sufficiency of where Israel should stand in this bloody conflict will end. There is no room for self-righteousness anymore. The time has come for Ukraine to receive military aid as the USA and NATO countries do.
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Old 16th Oct 2022, 11:10
  #10590 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by rattman
dunno what significance the "Israel's Minister of Diaspora Affairs" has in the grand scheme of things but he said

This morning it was reported that Iran is transferring ballistic missiles to Russia. The sufficiency of where Israel should stand in this bloody conflict will end. There is no room for self-righteousness anymore. The time has come for Ukraine to receive military aid as the USA and NATO countries do.
I would suggest that is a watershed moment in Russian-Israeli relationship. Israel has maintained an odd mutually beneficial relationship with Russia, in part due to the diaspora. Family relationships and migration has continued since WW2, even during the Cold War. Migration started back in 1880, and 1908 where Russia was hostile to jews. Given Vlad's racist tendencies, I would expect Israel to be concerned about targeting of jews for conscription by Russia in retaliation to Israeli support on what sounds like moral objections to the actions of Russia. Israel may be a small country, but the ability for Israel to defend it's interests, are well above their weight bracket.

That sounds like good news for Ukraine and a diplomatic wet fish slap from Israel to Vlad.
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Old 16th Oct 2022, 11:17
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More on Iran to supply ballistic missiles to Russia.

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Old 16th Oct 2022, 11:34
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Egypt urging all citizens to leave Ukraine

Kazakhstan has decided to evacuate all employees from its embassy in Kyiv.

China calls on its citizens to leave Ukraine immediately.

somethings up…



https://twitter.com/visegrad24


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Old 16th Oct 2022, 11:59
  #10593 (permalink)  
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“If someone runs back, we will kill them”……

This intercepted call reveals how defensive lines operate for the Russians: first in the line are convicts guarded by mobiks in the second line, who are in turn guarded by regular forces.
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Old 16th Oct 2022, 12:05
  #10594 (permalink)  
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Ukrainian telegram channels heating up with reports of lots of Russian hardware in the air, aimed across Ukraine.

UAVs heading to western Ukraine, reports of several MIG31 from Belarus over Ukraine, numerous missiles all over Ukraine. CM heading towards Kyiv. AFU asking to post neither videos nor pictures of air defence.
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Old 16th Oct 2022, 12:12
  #10595 (permalink)  
 
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Old 16th Oct 2022, 13:27
  #10596 (permalink)  
 
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Iran Giving Missiles to Russia

Report from the Washington Post, October 16, 2022 at 2:30 a.m. EDT
... according toU.S. and allied security officials, secretly agreeing to send not only attack drones but also what some officials described as the first Iranian-made surface-to-surface missiles intended for use against Ukrainian cities and troop positions.
So they denied shooting down the Ukranian air liner (they eventually came clean) and now they deny supplying drones for use against Ukraine.
While Iranian weapons designers have struggled with reliability problems, the newest versions of the Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar are considered by experts to be both potent and reasonably accurate at relatively short distances, Nadimi said. Some models come with electrooptic guidance systems that allow missile operators to guide them in their final approach to the target. Iran previously provided the same missiles to proxy militia groups in the Middle East, most notably Houthi fighters in Yemen...{who} used them in attacks against oil refineries and other civilian targets in neighboring Gulf countries.
Field testing at its finest.
Independent news outlets in recent days published photos of the remains of what appear to be Iranian-made drones used in strikes against Ukrainian targets, calling into question Iran’s repeated denials that it has supplied such weapons to its ally Russia. Pentagon officials also publicly confirmed the use of Iranian drones in Russian airstrikes, as well as Ukraine’s success in shooting some of the drones down.
Iran and Iraq traded hundreds of Theater Ballistic Missiles against each other back in the 1980's. Iran seems to have made home grown ones. They know what they are doing, so I wonder what Ukraine did to piss them off? Make them look bad about that air liner shoot down?
...Tehran dispatched officials to Russia on Sept. 18 to finalize terms for additional weapons shipments, including two types of Iranian surface-to-surface missiles, according to officials from a U.S.-allied country that closely monitors Iran’s weapons activity.
I wonder who that could be?
Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar missiles ... capable of striking targets at distances of 300 and 700 kilometers...it would be the first delivery of such missiles to Russia since the start of the war.
So what is Russia paying to Iran, or providing to them, in return for this non-trivial shipment of modern weapons?

I am not sure what the TBMD posture of Ukraine is, but I doubt that it is very robust.
Some decades ago, the USAF was going a bit nuts about 'boost phase intercept' (large airliner sized aircraft zapping missiles with lasers as they took off) as the approach to defending against North Korean ballistic missiles of a similar class to the ones being provided by Iran. (I was very skeptical of that program, at the time). Have heard little to nothing about it since.
I wonder if it's been kept under wraps, or, if my skepticism was well founded.
That would be a very handy capability to employ at a time like this, if it works.
It may be like nuclear fusion as an energy source: "we are about 15 years away from solving this" as a decades long state of play.

The reports of a serious new front opening up from Belarus is disturbing: some months ago I asked "what if we are already in WW III and just don't know it yet?" The 'evacuate the embassy, all citizens leave Ukraine" signals from various countries doesn't make me feel any better.

Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 16th Oct 2022 at 13:51.
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Old 16th Oct 2022, 15:08
  #10597 (permalink)  
 
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Aviation content:

"Ukrainian pilot on his mission. Two rockets at 1:18 and flew home above the road"

The music will not appeal to all.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhpg...ый
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Old 16th Oct 2022, 15:18
  #10598 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Wokkafans
Aviation content:

"Ukrainian pilot on his mission. Two rockets at 1:18 and flew home above the road"

The music will not appeal to all.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhpg...ый
So is he targeting something or is this just a fire and forget mission?
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Old 16th Oct 2022, 16:39
  #10599 (permalink)  
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HARM? Could be being fired in Pre-Briefed mode. Just reach the programmed launch point and pull the trigger.

The HARM has four basic operating modes. The Pre-Brief, Pre-Emptive or Position-Known (PB/PE/POS) mode is a Lock On After Launch (LOAL) mode, and is used for standoff maximum range attacks on emitters of a known type and location, within several degrees of the missile boresight. This is the basic mode used by dedicated defence suppression (SEAD) aircraft such as the F-4G and Tornado ECR, or F-16CJ/HTS.

In PB/PE/POS mode, as used by the Tornado ECR or F-4G, the aircraft's Emitter Locating System (ELS) determines the identity and position of the target, which are downloaded to the missile. The launch aircraft will then toss the missile to impart the best possible range. The missile flies on inertial guidance until it acquires the target, and then homes to impact. The PB/PE/POS mode is essentially offensive and most commonly used when taking down an IADS.”
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Old 16th Oct 2022, 16:59
  #10600 (permalink)  
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Russian channel Older than Edda: Reports of the transfer of "Daggers" (KH-47M2 Kinzhal missiles) to Belarus…




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