Is Ukraine about to have a war?
The reality here is that the West is saying that they don’t wish to step up military production to any great extent because of the cost. Meanwhile, the Russians are beginning to mobilise their industry……
Like it or not, this war is now a battle of industrial systems - like previous large wars. The post Cold War ‘small, exquisite, periodic and expensive’ approach to weapons procurement in the West is over. We just haven’t fully realized that yet.…
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...358390272.html
Like it or not, this war is now a battle of industrial systems - like previous large wars. The post Cold War ‘small, exquisite, periodic and expensive’ approach to weapons procurement in the West is over. We just haven’t fully realized that yet.…
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...358390272.html
Having never been involved in military procurement, I don't know how you overcome the problem that after the initial orders - unlike supermarket-biscuits - you cannot rely on any new orders for perhaps years, which gives big problems about ordering parts with long lead-times, keeping skills up-to-date and having expensive factory space taken up by assembly-lines for non-moving product.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
General Staff: Russia amasses troops near Melitopol in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Russian forces are bringing more troops and building fortifications around Melitopol in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the General Staff reported on Nov. 13.
Russian forces are bringing more troops and building fortifications around Melitopol in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the General Staff reported on Nov. 13.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Rybar by now isn't even particularly shy of showing exactly where Ukraine might strike next, which is the Zaporizhzhia direction. What's funny is zero mention of what Russia might do to counter this move.
Almost as if it is game over.
Almost as if it is game over.
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More on the Nuclear power plant region.
Dominating Melitopol would block the remaining 2.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Reuters: Zelensky visits liberated Kherson.
President Volodymyr Zelensky is visiting the city of Kherson, according to a Reuters witness.
Kherson was liberated by Ukrainian troops on Nov. 11.
President Volodymyr Zelensky is visiting the city of Kherson, according to a Reuters witness.
Kherson was liberated by Ukrainian troops on Nov. 11.
Last edited by ORAC; 14th Nov 2022 at 10:28.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Russian mobilised troops have lost half their number killed under constant Ukrainian bombardment near Svatove in under a month. They are drinking out of puddles and are being fed only every two or three days, but fear being shot by their own side if they try to surrender.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...003217921.html
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...003217921.html
Having never been involved in military procurement, I don't know how you overcome the problem that after the initial orders - unlike supermarket-biscuits - you cannot rely on any new orders for perhaps years, which gives big problems about ordering parts with long lead-times, keeping skills up-to-date and having expensive factory space taken up by assembly-lines for non-moving product.
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Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Supposedly all identified and included in the contract as part of the CADMID cycle (Concept, Assessment, Design, Manufacrure, In-Service, Disposal).
e.g. The product can be designed so that it open-source and modular so that software & hardware can be easily replaced and up graded during its life, so you don’t have to produce and stockpile spares at the start fo4 fear of not being able to source them. Supposedly one o& the design points for the NGAD..
Not much you can do about the production line - look at those for the F-22 and C-17. When they’re gone - they’re gone.
Disposal remains a pipe dream in many cases - which is why SSN/SSBN hulks are tied up alongside decades later - and ships full of asbestos are sold to scrappers in Asia to export the problem…
e.g. The product can be designed so that it open-source and modular so that software & hardware can be easily replaced and up graded during its life, so you don’t have to produce and stockpile spares at the start fo4 fear of not being able to source them. Supposedly one o& the design points for the NGAD..
Not much you can do about the production line - look at those for the F-22 and C-17. When they’re gone - they’re gone.
Disposal remains a pipe dream in many cases - which is why SSN/SSBN hulks are tied up alongside decades later - and ships full of asbestos are sold to scrappers in Asia to export the problem…
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Antonivskyi bridge from above, that's going to take a heck of a time to repair, it might be better starting again.
Is there a rough inventory of the vast ammunition store in Transnistria that the Russians were hoping to link up to and access?
(It sounded like old ammo aplenty for outdated equipment.)
(It sounded like old ammo aplenty for outdated equipment.)
How long before fragging become de rigueur
Last edited by fdr; 15th Nov 2022 at 02:01.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
If true, the Southern/Left bank of the Dnipro has become "Grey Zone." It is land held by neither side as AFU & RFAF patrols skirmish with one another.
The other implication, if true, is the 49th Combined Arms Army really did lose tens of thousands in the withdrawal.
Again, if true, then the Russians strategic position in the south of Ukraine has become untenable. There is too much land and not enough Russian troops or logistics to hold it.
You need some minimum density of infantry forces to hold ground and Russia has fallen below whatever that magic number is in southern Ukraine. If Ukrainian SF can occupy Russian abandoned towns on the Left/Southern bank of the Dnipro…..
“Unconfirmed news from #Olehsky,Kherson . UA forces seem to have liberated the town. 🇷🇺 forces withdrew after relentless artillery & HIMARS strikes all night & morning. 🇺🇦 SOF entered the city this morning.”
The other implication, if true, is the 49th Combined Arms Army really did lose tens of thousands in the withdrawal.
Again, if true, then the Russians strategic position in the south of Ukraine has become untenable. There is too much land and not enough Russian troops or logistics to hold it.
You need some minimum density of infantry forces to hold ground and Russia has fallen below whatever that magic number is in southern Ukraine. If Ukrainian SF can occupy Russian abandoned towns on the Left/Southern bank of the Dnipro…..
“Unconfirmed news from #Olehsky,Kherson . UA forces seem to have liberated the town. 🇷🇺 forces withdrew after relentless artillery & HIMARS strikes all night & morning. 🇺🇦 SOF entered the city this morning.”
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
🇷🇺 forces on the Kilburn spit have retreated to a newly created defensive line in the bottleneck of the peninsula half way between Herois'ke & Rybal'che. The defensive line stretches all the way across (4 km) and consists of trenches and vehicle reventments.