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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 22nd Sep 2022, 09:23
  #9541 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by pasta
I doubt it would take a special weapon to bring down that bridge. For now, the consensus seems to be that it's better left in place, as an exit route for the occupiers.
The same was said about the Atonivka in Kherson. A route out is equally a route in for supplies and reinforcements. Also, dropping such a bridge can have a big psychological impact on those caught on the wrong side.

Given the almost mythical status the Kerch bridge has attained in the minds of both sides, I'd go all out to drop it.
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Old 22nd Sep 2022, 09:38
  #9542 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by [email protected]
So can Putin still survive this?

It would seem his only hope is to placate internationally and deceive domestically.
I was thinking along these lines too but, after yesterday, its evident he really wants to walk away with something i.e. to freeze the conflict as-is (as a minimum). I said back in February before he invaded that he had bet the house on Ukraine caving in and the West backing down. He's now massively upped his stake, mortgaging the lives of his family, friends, and countrymen.

By withdrawing to the pre-2014 borders, he stops the war in its tracks - his referenda could be used to show overwhelming support in the regions for UKR sovereignty (which is probably true anyway).
Did you mean UKR?

On that basis he could claim a victory over the 'nazis' in the region and respect for the sovereignty of UKR whilst in reality he skulks back to his own borders and licks his wounds.

He could also claim that his partial mobilisation was the threat that finally persuaded the West to back down so he could safely withdraw from UKR.
I think there's little chance of that now.
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Old 22nd Sep 2022, 09:56
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Medvedev is ready to use Strategic Nuclear Weapons over Donbas, Kherson, etc.
This guy's really lost it.

Russia will use nuclear weapons to ‘defend territories’, Medvedev warns
“Russia is ready to defend territories added to it with all means, including strategic nuclear weapons,” said Medvedev, in a reference to planned referendums by Russian-installed and separatist authorities on Ukrainian territory.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b2172851.html
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Old 22nd Sep 2022, 10:05
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I'd say that most Putin loyalists have really lost it! The truth is that they are worried, seriously worried, and these threats are all they have left in their bully bag!
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Old 22nd Sep 2022, 10:16
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Originally Posted by Spunky Monkey
Hopefully the people on the streets are the first step in the downfall of Dictator P and his not so merry men.
The graphic video's circulating on social media of that poor young female protestor getting clubbed to death by the Police in Moscow last night, and then the Police dragging her body away into a shop out of sight highlights the situation any brave protestors are in over there.
Maybe putting weapons into the hands of 300,000 reluctant new reservists, may not be a good idea by Pootin.........how close could we be to a repeat of 1917?
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Old 22nd Sep 2022, 10:42
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Originally Posted by GeeRam
The graphic video's circulating on social media of that poor young female protestor getting clubbed to death by the Police in Moscow last night, and then the Police dragging her body away into a shop out of sight highlights the situation any brave protestors are in over there.
Maybe putting weapons into the hands of 300,000 reluctant new reservists, may not be a good idea by Pootin.........how close could we be to a repeat of 1917?
Those protesters in St Petersburg and Moscow are just as brave as the Ukrainian soldiers. I too watched it with utter disgust and like you hope that it will mark a turning point in Russian history.
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Old 22nd Sep 2022, 10:48
  #9547 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Beamr
Medvedev is ready to use Strategic Nuclear Weapons over Donbas, Kherson, etc.
This guy's really lost it.
Medvedev is a sycophantic acolyte of Vlad's. Hardly any surprise there.

There have been two really really close calls that involved potential nuke releases by Russia, and in both cases, it was the Military that declined to follow the procedure/order. 27 October 1962, Valentin Grigoryevich Savitsky, the Captain of B-59, a Foxtrot with a special weapon decided that he had criteria to make a release. The 2 I/C, Vasily Aleksandrovich Arkhipov, refused to agree, a 3 man rule was in force supposedly. Arkhipov was the flotilla commander, so he had some topcover, but he got flak on return. Pretty interesting guy, was the 2 I/C on K-19 when the reactor went bad, got himself a major dose of sunshine.

In 1983, Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov stopped release of all response ICBM's following 2 false alerts in an hour, refusing to believe that there was anything other than a computer glitch, which there was.

Would Russian officers follow an order to do a release knowing that their country has a high probability of being turned into glass? If they believe the Russian land is being attacked, almost certainly. For the Ukrainians fighting for their own land? I doubt it. The RF are as disgusted by their managers as the rest of the world is, they are the ones eating bullets and getting no support on a bogus mission that they know is bogus. The troops commit atrocities, certainly, they have officers following their command system, they have brutal mercenaries, and they have conscripts that didn't know they were going to war, hop out of their helicopter/tank/BMP/BTR and find that they are invading a neighbor, and they are getting torn up as a result. They are brutalized by their system, and being on the receiving end of effective and motivated defence. They still know that Russian troops are on the other side. They do use the term Nazi, which indicates that they are either believing some of the B/S, or they are trying to placate their home fans.

1917, this may be similar. If not, then the 2014 lines and a negotiated truce may be a halfway house, but Ukraine needs absolute protection from the brutes next door, that means something more enduring than the deceit that passed for support over removal of the nuclear arms that remained in Ukraine. I would still doubt that Ukraine will buy that, they have good reason to be distrustful of vacuous promises that then get words parsed like Clinton's infamous obfuscation.
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Old 22nd Sep 2022, 11:20
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Did you mean UKR?
yes, he could pretend to be the gracious one and let UKR rule itself in the contested regions (so magnanimous of him) it would be a face saving move as he is forced to return to pre-2014 borders
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Old 22nd Sep 2022, 11:59
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Originally Posted by Buster15
Those protesters in St Petersburg and Moscow are just as brave as the Ukrainian soldiers. I too watched it with utter disgust and like you hope that it will mark a turning point in Russian history.
I note that these people didn't protest because of the heinous crimes their soldiers have been committing in Ukraine, or because tens of thousands of them are being killed in Putin's war. They only became 'brave' when their own little pink bodies were being put in the trucks. Some are so brave that they're trying to escape from their own country. Like you I hope Putin's regime is soon toppled and something better emerges from the wreckage, but I have little regard for a people who either turned a blind eye to what was going on or actively encouraged it.
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Old 22nd Sep 2022, 12:04
  #9550 (permalink)  
 
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Good News, Russian Anti Aircraft defence is improving, they have shot down a drone....... Ohh wait a minute, it's one of theirs

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Old 22nd Sep 2022, 12:11
  #9551 (permalink)  
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I have no military background or experience. So I have to ask this. It seems Putin has now threatened the entire West with the use of nukes. The French, the UK and the the USA are out there with with Subs, I assume ready to launch.

Has Putin got so deranged that he is willing to destroy the world to prove a point. ( what that point is, I don’t know).

I note with interest that even China has started backing away from Putin. What scares me now, he is becoming increasingly isolated and mad.
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Old 22nd Sep 2022, 12:19
  #9552 (permalink)  
 
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Highly motivated person https://www.telegraaf.nl/nieuws/6850...p-ander-niveau Scoll down a bit to see a video of a journalist calling the son of Dmitri Peskov.
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Old 22nd Sep 2022, 12:24
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Originally Posted by SOPS
I have no military background or experience. So I have to ask this. It seems Putin as now threatened the entire West with the use of nukes. The French, the UK and the the USA are out there with with Subs, I assume ready to launch.

Has Putin got so deranged that he is willing to destroy the world to prove a point. ( what that point is, I don’t know).
If you take the view that he'll do anything to ensure his personal survival, his actions can still be interpreted as rational.
  • If he withdraws entirely, he ends up going out of the window, so that's not an option - 0% chance of survival
  • If he maintains the offensive, maybe something will happen in Russia's favour - unexpected gains, the West backs down etc. pretty small chance, but non-zero
  • If he threatens major escalation, maybe the West gets scared and tells Ukraine to settle for a compromise or they'll withdraw support. Odds still not great, but arguably higher than just hoping something favourable happens
If he's clutching at straws, threatening to go nuclear would seem to be the biggest straw available. As for what happens if/when he finally accepts the game is up, who knows...
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Old 22nd Sep 2022, 12:25
  #9554 (permalink)  
 
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The thing as I see it is hopefully his military have enough sanity to not launch or remove him if he ever decided too, I believe the Russian system is not a one man system, it takes several to authentic it.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...es-2022-03-02/

China is trying to "broker a ceasefire" and talks, but having just met with Putin that sounds more like a Putin request to allow his troops more time to dig in and bring in reserves. Something that would disadvantage Ukraine

https://twitter.com/search?q=china%2...d_query&f=live

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Old 22nd Sep 2022, 13:12
  #9555 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by pasta
If you take the view that he'll do anything to ensure his personal survival, his actions can still be interpreted as rational.
  • If he withdraws entirely, he ends up going out of the window, so that's not an option - 0% chance of survival
  • If he maintains the offensive, maybe something will happen in Russia's favour - unexpected gains, the West backs down etc. pretty small chance, but non-zero
  • If he threatens major escalation, maybe the West gets scared and tells Ukraine to settle for a compromise or they'll withdraw support. Odds still not great, but arguably higher than just hoping something favourable happens
If he's clutching at straws, threatening to go nuclear would seem to be the biggest straw available. As for what happens if/when he finally accepts the game is up, who knows...
As the weather cools, the window incidents may reduce, gotta be motivated to open up a window on the 6th floor at -25C and -20 wind chill. Perhaps that will give Medvedev and Soigu some spine as the OH&S accident risk recedes.



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Old 22nd Sep 2022, 14:51
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Originally Posted by Wokkafans
"Whoah. Look at the number of INOPs (inoperable) warnings on these Russian aircraft due to sanctions. I wouldn't fly on that."

Usual caveats apply:

Link: https://twitter.com/KiwiEV/status/15...D9mWZ9Kex5Rs9g

https://twitter.com/KiwiEV/status/15...D9mWZ9Kex5Rs9g
thats VP-BVO, red wings A320 sitting in Tallinn, Estonia since 2021. In essence since prior to sanctions. The video has been doing rounds since January I believe.
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Old 22nd Sep 2022, 15:29
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Regarding Medvedev, he has been pretty consistent playing the Russian media with his hardline statements.

It appears to me that Medvedev could be a fallback position for Putin. If things continue badly, he could "resign" and install Medvedev who is no doubt controlled by him and continue pulling the strings in the background as the real ruler. It could be the perfect setup for Putin's future if things don't recover to normal for the average Russian and Medvedev's leadership is deemed soft. The people then clamor for a hardline leader and guess who reappears to 'save the day'.

Thoughts?
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Old 22nd Sep 2022, 16:00
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Russian Ka52 downed by manpad. Looks like crew survivability good.
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Old 22nd Sep 2022, 16:06
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The mobilization is apparently taken very seriously by the authorities east of Ural.
the threads on twitter are various but the message in all of them is the same: in practice every adult male is in risk being taken away. The messages from west of Ural is very different, not so much press ganging.
The speculation is that the actual amount Putin is going for is 1M men. However, they probably can't handle more than 100-150k mobilized people before running out of resources and even for those it'll be winter before they are of any use in the front.


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Old 22nd Sep 2022, 16:08
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Wink

Originally Posted by WhatsaLizad?
Regarding Medvedev, he has been pretty consistent playing the Russian media with his hardline statements.

It appears to me that Medvedev could be a fallback position for Putin. If things continue badly, he could "resign" and install Medvedev who is no doubt controlled by him and continue pulling the strings in the background as the real ruler. It could be the perfect setup for Putin's future if things don't recover to normal for the average Russian and Medvedev's leadership is deemed soft. The people then clamor for a hardline leader and guess who reappears to 'save the day'.

Thoughts?
The day of 'put up or shut up' is fast approaching. The referendums are taking place from today until the 27th in the 4 Russian 'held' regions in the East of Ukraine. Russian ministers have said that if these regions vote to join Russia, then they will be instantly accepted and will become part of the Motherland. They further said that any military action against these areas will then be deemed a direct attack against the Russian state and will attract the gravest of consequences, including Nuclear. This is not rumour or speculation - it is being openly said by Putin, Medvedev, Soigu, and others.

Now, the outcome of these referenda is of course a foregone conclusion. They will vote to join Russia. However, the area's they cover will of course really be part of Ukraine and the UKR military will not recognize the referendums (as will nobody else) and they will contine to attack and fight to regain their territory. This is precisely the scenario that Russian leaders are saying will invite a nuclear response, and this scenario is virtually inevitable - barring something completely unforseen it will happen

We will then be in a position where the bluff has been called. We will be in the situation that Putin and Medvedev said will result in the use of nukes - a direct threat to the Russian state. At this point they have options - they either do not use them and destroy the credibility of their deterrence for all time, or they use them.

I have said several times on this forum and for many months that this conflict would end either with Putin's demise or go Nuclear. It was always inevitable - the West could simply not allow Putin to win...it was never going to happen. Once Putin realized he was losing, his personality would force him to use nukes as he simply cannot countenance looking weak. For me this has always been obvious.

I pray he falls victim to high-velocity lead poisoning in the coming days, but if he does not, I see the use of nuclear weapons as a certainty.
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