Is Ukraine about to have a war?
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25 years of putin coming home to roost.
2nd dudes nailed it
25 years of putin coming home to roost.
2nd dudes nailed it
I rather liked the last two women, yes I agree with it we should mobilise and send them, then questioned about their family members, no they wouldn’t want to go.
I'll see what I can do. 10,000 to 20,000 ft is optimum, depends on burst height.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MPN11 View Post
I pray for a westerly wind.
I'll see what I can do. 10,000 to 20,000 ft is optimum, depends on burst height.
May have lost the touch ..........
Quote:
Originally Posted by MPN11 View Post
I pray for a westerly wind.
I'll see what I can do. 10,000 to 20,000 ft is optimum, depends on burst height.
May have lost the touch ..........
- Sevastopol,
- Krasnodar,
- Rostov-on-Don,
- Voronezh,
- Moscow...
- And Beijing etc...
"... sir, do you want one lump or two of Strontium 90? We have high and low terabecquerel's on tap today, fresh delivery from the Kremlin! Da?"
So - I wonder what the `grave consequences' are that Washington has privately threatened Moscow with, should a small special weapon be used in Ukraine.
I doubt they'd respond in kind - for obvious reasons.
In fact any NATO kinetic response on Russian forces or territory would likely lead to similar escalation.
They can't really blockade Russia physically.
Request any and all nations who will listen cease trading in any way altogether with Russia?
Massive cyberattacks targeting essential Russian infrastructure?
Sabotage Nordstream - cut undersea cables - essentially turn off the lights and all IT in Russia?
Or are we talking giving Ukraine ATACAMS, Western fast jets and anything else conventional they ask for - and telling them to fill their boots?
I doubt they'd respond in kind - for obvious reasons.
In fact any NATO kinetic response on Russian forces or territory would likely lead to similar escalation.
They can't really blockade Russia physically.
Request any and all nations who will listen cease trading in any way altogether with Russia?
Massive cyberattacks targeting essential Russian infrastructure?
Sabotage Nordstream - cut undersea cables - essentially turn off the lights and all IT in Russia?
Or are we talking giving Ukraine ATACAMS, Western fast jets and anything else conventional they ask for - and telling them to fill their boots?
Use of tactical nuclear weapons is not only an attack on Ukraine it is an attack on NATO. A whole of NATO overwhelming conventional response is not optional.
Per the referendum in the Ukraine whether to join Russia, it just occurred to me that the logic behind this means that Alaska, which was bought by the US in an imperialist purchase from Russia for $7.2 million back in the day, should also have a vote as to returning to the Russian motherland. This whole concept opens a rather large can of worms!
Any use of a nuke is a red line, and you cannot let that slide period!
If you do, the idea of Mutual Assured Destruction goes right out of the window, if you open that can of worms, you have to live with the consequences and cannot ever put the lid back on it..
I wish people would stop using the word “Tactical” as if a “Tactical” nuclear weapon is ok, it’s a nuke period, and any nuclear weapon, regardless of size is NOT acceptable in any shape or form.
THE ONLY RESPONSE IS A NUCLEAR RESPONSE, because if you do not adhere to the concept of MAD and ignore it, you are in effect okaying the use of nuclear weapons in any future conflict, and there are countries out there that will take advantage that failure to the detriment of us all.
If you do, the idea of Mutual Assured Destruction goes right out of the window, if you open that can of worms, you have to live with the consequences and cannot ever put the lid back on it..
I wish people would stop using the word “Tactical” as if a “Tactical” nuclear weapon is ok, it’s a nuke period, and any nuclear weapon, regardless of size is NOT acceptable in any shape or form.
THE ONLY RESPONSE IS A NUCLEAR RESPONSE, because if you do not adhere to the concept of MAD and ignore it, you are in effect okaying the use of nuclear weapons in any future conflict, and there are countries out there that will take advantage that failure to the detriment of us all.
It is past time to acknowledge that Putin is a leader of a Terrorist State.
BTW, Russia tried to hack the Ukraines election in 2014, even going on their TV showing the forged and falsified documents that were supposed to have been achieved by their hacking plan. So much for non-interference in internal matters etc.
As a terrorist, lawless state, they need to be travel banned in all civilised nations, and they have no place in the UN at any level. including the malodorous Lavrov, and the rest of the corrupt government system. Why should Lavrov be afforded any courtesy, his goon squads just beat to death a young girl who was protesting against the actions of Putin in the last 48 hours, she is the embodiment of hope for a better Russia, as is Navalny. Time for secondary sanctions to start being drawn up.
P.S.: Starting reforger to provide hardware for Ukraine would send a message to Putin to either put up or shut up. As I have said before, the A-10s are a low lag option, and are able to give options for Ukraine that may be helpful. Ukraine has been incredibly restrained in their response so far.
Hate nukes with a passion, but there is no door #9 that gives an option to not stand up to a terrorist threat to use nukes, which Putin just did.
Last edited by fdr; 23rd Sep 2022 at 01:54.
Per the referendum in the Ukraine whether to join Russia, it just occurred to me that the logic behind this means that Alaska, which was bought by the US in an imperialist purchase from Russia for $7.2 million back in the day, should also have a vote as to returning to the Russian motherland. This whole concept opens a rather large can of worms!
Now, the Paiutes, Cherokees, and other groups might want a referendum for their people. The Sioux arguably were militarily defeated, but golly, the agreements signed by the govt were soft, and absorbent which may have led to their application. Let's not even talk about England... France, Belgium, etc... enough embarrassment to share all round.
You mean fallout potentially blowing across NATO member states constitutes an attack on them?
Ukraine isn't a NATO member.
I wouldn't anticipate an overwhelming conventional weapon response from the whole of NATO in response to Russia using a small weapon in Ukraine.
But I could imagine a whole series of very serious non-kinetic reprisals by many member states.
And the US and close allies taking the lead on grey warfare (cables, pipelines, Internet access etc).
And escalating the supply of weaponry even further to Ukraine in order for them to respond kinetically... do they get given Tomahawks even?
Have no doubt that there are already drafted "if... then..." options for each scenario as FDR outlines.
Last edited by tartare; 23rd Sep 2022 at 03:33.
I don't understand?
You mean fallout potentially blowing across NATO member states constitutes an attack on them?
Ukraine isn't a NATO member.
I wouldn't anticipate an overwhelming conventional weapon response from the whole of NATO in response to Russia using a small weapon in Ukraine.
But I could imagine a whole series of very serious non-kinetic reprisals by many member states.
And the US and close allies taking the lead on grey warfare (cables, pipelines, Internet access etc).
And escalating the supply of weaponry even further to Ukraine in order for them to respond kinetically...
Have no doubt that there are already drafted "if... then..." options for each scenario as FDR outlines.
You mean fallout potentially blowing across NATO member states constitutes an attack on them?
Ukraine isn't a NATO member.
I wouldn't anticipate an overwhelming conventional weapon response from the whole of NATO in response to Russia using a small weapon in Ukraine.
But I could imagine a whole series of very serious non-kinetic reprisals by many member states.
And the US and close allies taking the lead on grey warfare (cables, pipelines, Internet access etc).
And escalating the supply of weaponry even further to Ukraine in order for them to respond kinetically...
Have no doubt that there are already drafted "if... then..." options for each scenario as FDR outlines.
If there is no action why would China not use tactical nukes on China or Pakistan on India?. It is the ultimate terror weapon
I don't understand?
You mean fallout potentially blowing across NATO member states constitutes an attack on them?
Ukraine isn't a NATO member.
I wouldn't anticipate an overwhelming conventional weapon response from the whole of NATO in response to Russia using a small weapon in Ukraine.
But I could imagine a whole series of very serious non-kinetic reprisals by many member states.
And the US and close allies taking the lead on grey warfare (cables, pipelines, Internet access etc).
And escalating the supply of weaponry even further to Ukraine in order for them to respond kinetically...
Have no doubt that there are already drafted "if... then..." options for each scenario as FDR outlines.
You mean fallout potentially blowing across NATO member states constitutes an attack on them?
Ukraine isn't a NATO member.
I wouldn't anticipate an overwhelming conventional weapon response from the whole of NATO in response to Russia using a small weapon in Ukraine.
But I could imagine a whole series of very serious non-kinetic reprisals by many member states.
And the US and close allies taking the lead on grey warfare (cables, pipelines, Internet access etc).
And escalating the supply of weaponry even further to Ukraine in order for them to respond kinetically...
Have no doubt that there are already drafted "if... then..." options for each scenario as FDR outlines.
the threat of it is bad enough.
and the worst part arguably is the radiation, and its effects, so a nuclear "incident" a power station will, be treated near the same threat (response) level.
Nah, you still have the receipt!
Now, the Paiutes, Cherokees, and other groups might want a referendum for their people. The Sioux arguably were militarily defeated, but golly, the agreements signed by the govt were soft, and absorbent which may have led to their application. Let's not even talk about England... France, Belgium, etc... enough embarrassment to share all round.
Now, the Paiutes, Cherokees, and other groups might want a referendum for their people. The Sioux arguably were militarily defeated, but golly, the agreements signed by the govt were soft, and absorbent which may have led to their application. Let's not even talk about England... France, Belgium, etc... enough embarrassment to share all round.
If Russia uses a nuke of any size anywhere and there is not an overwhelming kinetic response from NATO then the nuclear taboo has been broken and you have enabled all the despots who have or are working towards nuclear weapons to use them. This would be an existential moment for the West.
If there is no action why would China not use tactical nukes on China or Pakistan on India?. It is the ultimate terror weapon
If there is no action why would China not use tactical nukes on China or Pakistan on India?. It is the ultimate terror weapon
It's the intermediate scenarios that are difficult.
Let's say Russia drops a small weapon on Snake Island.
To signal how seriously we view the breaking of said taboo, are we (i.e. the US and UK) then going to TLAM most or all of known Russian military sites in Ukraine in response? (those two nations being the only ones who have them in the arsenal).
Realistically - that weapon is probably the only PGM that can be used at short notice given the lack of a no-fly zone.
It's immediately obvious then who has attacked Russia, and a further escalatory response is invited.
I would have thought there are a few intermediate options i.e. turning off the lights and infrastructure inside Russia, announcing an immediate physical and virtual blockade to the extent it is possible - in essence immediately crippling and isolating Russia as a nation.
Immediate full travel and flight ban, revocation of every and all visas, expropriation of all Russian assets and funds internationally.
You would also highly visibly put your SSBNs to sea, and move to DEFCON 2.
Now, if they dropped a nuclear weapon on a major population centre - that's an entirely different step or two up the response sequence...
the use at all, (europe) as we have all said is just mad.
And the island few miles of Nato's coast, Romania, i wouldn't want to find out
And the island few miles of Nato's coast, Romania, i wouldn't want to find out
Last edited by MJ89; 23rd Sep 2022 at 04:28.
The shock of a flash-bang going off in Eastern Europe would be something to avoid. There are program responses, but there is a fair expectation that the lunacy that is involved in such an action would add some ad-hoc steps from many responders. That's not a bad thing, it has kept civilisation going at least until Putin came on the scene. In the absence of command and control, then it is pretty much set piece responses, and that would need a lot of marshmellows for the show that puts on.
Smokin' Snake Island may be considered an attack on NATO, I would think that would be reasonable. Taking out anything within Ukraine would be reasonably considered as an radiological attack on NATO including deliberately toasting a NPP within the Ukraine (Russian NPP's safety is, well, it's Russia, seems OH&S needs a bit of work), and would probably end up with more than really stern letters. Immediate retaliation against all known Russian targets within Ukraine would be high on that list, and that would mean using all available assets, including TLAM from surface ships, planes and SSN/SSKs. etc. That any nuclear weapon will result in the removal of everything of Russian make from the Donbas, within Ukraine territory is about the only intermediate step that is available, other than asking for another jar of K.Y. jelly. A nuclear response is not going to be considered to be anything other than escalation from the House of Puke. I do think that ramping up a Reforger exercise is warranted to get some clarity into Vlad's vodka infused synapses, that making threats on nukular items comes with consequences.
Here's the thing, sitting back and not standing up on posture after a thinly veiled threat invites the dear leader of the hermit kingdom to follow suit in due course.
In '62, Nikita had some courage, enough to sort out a problem that had arisen from the activity of all sides, but the solution was to quietly back down. (it also got perilously close to going bad, just because a D-E sub got held down until it depleted it's batteries....) Today, Vlad doesn't indicate any such level of personal courage, he is afraid to be in the same room as other things, (like, ...people ), and is caught in his own rhetoric. Backing down doesn't end well unless he has a good story to tell, being Russia, stories are everything. Since Vlad and Co have come to power, they have managed to cause wars with a tad over 50% of their former friends, the ones that they have maintained in spite of that now are asking why they are involved in anything Russian any more, and they have taken the resources of the country and deposited much of that in the names of around 200 Russians that are holding the loot for.... count Vlad. As far as systems whose time has come and gone, Russia needs to open up under new management.
Funny, this is reminiscent of the saying in a B grade film, "I'm not worried about the men with thousands of nukes, I'm terrified over the person who has just one..." and that is the thing, a demo bang on a target in Ukraine will certainly result in response and that may get, how you say.... "Sporty", Da?".
Using nukes will not work for them as this escalates the war to a global level beyond the Russian government's control and leading to immediate "major" western reactions. And nukes will upset China being downwind and needing all those agricultural lands on the long run.
Until now the Russian government seems to still move controlled and in limited ways with much of the crazy rhetorics meant for domestic consumption. With all respect to the war victims the government still moves sort of softer than it speaks. The problem is they do not only not reach their goals but everything massively backfires eroding Russias reputation and wealth to rogue state level. It must be a new record speed for any country to just waste what it had before and work against every declared own objective and interest. Unfortunately this means there is a lot of room for error on their side concerning the next steps. It's not the rationale Cold War chess game anymore.
Until now the Russian government seems to still move controlled and in limited ways with much of the crazy rhetorics meant for domestic consumption. With all respect to the war victims the government still moves sort of softer than it speaks. The problem is they do not only not reach their goals but everything massively backfires eroding Russias reputation and wealth to rogue state level. It must be a new record speed for any country to just waste what it had before and work against every declared own objective and interest. Unfortunately this means there is a lot of room for error on their side concerning the next steps. It's not the rationale Cold War chess game anymore.
Last edited by Less Hair; 23rd Sep 2022 at 06:42.
Looks like the Ukranian Navy has drones too:
https://www.maritime-executive.com/a...ccupied-crimea
https://www.maritime-executive.com/a...ccupied-crimea
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
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