Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[fdr]

A-10's?

Originally Posted by Beamr

....
Problem for Russians is that mobilization takes time. It takes at least months to make any real effect in the front unless they just drive the fresh troops to the border by trains and leave them there, WW2 style, some have the rifles and others have the ammo. And this delay would be the opportunity for Ukraine to make a breakthrough, but it would require the West to disregard the NBC thteats and make a big boost on arms deliveries to Ukraine: MBTs, long range missiles, even thise A10's or vipers if Ukraine has some pilots as rumoured, anything and everything they need. Make the Z-forces current forces annihilate so that some 100k new troops won't make a difference....

The A-10 has some measure of survivability in contested airspace. They are not dealing with the VVS, they would be subject to AAA, small arms, and MANPADS, which are still plentiful . The S-300/400 seems really good at shooting S-300/400 sites, or being used to shoot down schools and apartment blocks, but less effective at present against high speed targets. No one has ever suggested that the A-10 is "high speed", after all it gets bird strikes from the rear, but the Su-25 has been employed fairly well, and while faster than the A-10, it's systems are so-so for taking damage and keeping on trucking. Would think that there are a number of FGA drivers sitting around right now that would be quite prepared to strap on the gun and go plinking Putin and his uninvited guests that are in their home land. The A-10 does fly down low well. The ballistic release path that has become fashionable as a technique should be well within the skills of the UF drivers, and the targeting systems of even the A models was upgraded over time, and there is always china graph pencils. With the threat environment, the Predator type drones are great for drawing fire, but are not likely to last very long, a shorter life cycle than the smaller Bayraktar I would expect. The A-10 risks the guys, but they are motivated, and are able to operate in the weeds. Pretty certain they will have a number of volunteers prepared to go shoot the gun at Vlad's team.

The hardest thing about going from a Soviet design to the western design is the ADI, it takes a self brief to make sure that there isn't a subconscious roll in response to a quick glance of the A/I. Soviet cockpits were surprisingly standard in layout, not that much different to the west, if one discounts the shotgun scatter system employed by British HMI systems designers pre the Typhoon (EFA, saved by French input, n'est-ce pas vrai? )

[NutLoose]

I posted this in JB hope for a bit of latitude as it is important.

It’s looking like they are declaring war.

[NutLoose]

Originally Posted by Xeptu

Not including jet engine powered cruise missiles or their new modern rockets, most of their ICBM's would most likely blow up on launch, causing a bigger problem for Russia than anyone else. I do get some amusement from Moscow Bobs ramblings, despite the fact that everyone else standing at the podium with him are discreetly rolling there eyeballs.

The UN would be a prime target, all those world leaders in one place.

[ORAC]

Putin’s speech.

As expected, mobilisation of all reserves, annexation of the invaded Ukranian Oblasts including Kherson and a threat of the use of nukes if any attempt is made to reclaim them.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status...rJfiZ8UQRxGF4g

[Xeptu]

Originally Posted by ORAC

Putin’s speech.

As expected, mobilisation of all reserves, annexation of the invaded Ukranian Oblasts including Kherson and a threat of the use of nukes if any attempt is made to reclaim them.

Well he has declared War then, probably WWIII, if nukes are used or a reactor is breached. There is little doubt Poland will defend itself from any threat, intended or not, with or without NATO

I would like to believe that Russians themselves have reached the conclusion that Putins time is over.

[Recc]

Originally Posted by ORAC

.... and a threat of the use of nukes if any attempt is made to reclaim them.

To be precise, he didn't threaten nuclear weapons explicitly; just strongly hinted at them. I think that level of restraint is significant. He said something very similar back in February as a warning to any country that tried to 'interfere' with his 'SMO'. Those threats were never acted on. He is still leaving himself some room.

[mahogany bob]

Putin is raising the stakes in a very dangerous game of poker!!

[Less Hair]

The Russian government's strategy seems to be to escalate things two steps at a time to scare the opponent into submission. In some ways, they have reached the end of the threat scale now. Nuke threats every morning start to get boring after some time.

[fdr]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

Russia is pulling back a Parachute regiment from Syria to throw into Ukraine

Includes parachutes?

[Beamr]

Originally Posted by ORAC

Putin’s speech.

As expected, mobilisation of all reserves, annexation of the invaded Ukranian Oblasts including Kherson and a threat of the use of nukes if any attempt is made to reclaim them.

So it begins then.

Now the hard part for the Z-team
- Russia abandoned its mobilization infrastructure in 2000's as part of the army reform, mobilization will take a lot of time.
- Even though they are announcing the mobilization of 300000 troops, how and where will those be grouped and led by whom, as they've already consumed the professional lower level commanders in Ukraine.
- Gathering those troops from their daily jobs and lifes will be a pain in the ass for Putins cronies, as NOT ONE OF THEM is willingly and voluntarily joining the army (otherwise they already would've joined as there were promises of money, loot and glory which in practice are now forbidden by martial law)
- Where will they find the kit to equip 300k troops? They are already struggling with the original force having to send T62's and Mosin-Nagant 1891's to the front.
- The will to fight will be all time low due to all of the above: They have not joined earlier for they all see their current lives too valuable, they will be badly equipped, it'll be months in between the letter and actually getting to the front and by then it'll be the worst time of the year to feel miserable and die in the trenches,

As mentioned earlier, NOW is the time for Ukraine to go forth and time for the west to send them all the long range goods there is from missiles to AC. Why long range? To make the supply chain as short as possible. Russia is in trouble if their train tracks are cut, they have no other means to transport all the troops and the supplies to the front and they have little to none means to cut modern Ukrainian supply chains. The further back the positions are, the easier it is for Ukraine to resupply and protect the platform. 300km range MLRS means that Ukraine can hit all the Russian targets safely from UKR controlled area with shortest possible supply chain making counter battery actions futile. The russkies aren't really afraid that Ukraine sends greetings to the Russian territory, they are afraid that they can't do nothing about the MLRS if the positions are so far back from the front. Include Leos, Abrams, Gepards, PASIs, AAA, mobile artillery, AGM-88, everything that can be of use. Ukraine has the manpower, they mobilized 400k troops already in the spring and many of them has now been trained, they still have at least the same amount of people available. They are however missing the tools.

[Buster Hyman]

I wonder if Putin read that bit about the Russian Revolution where the proletariat were sick of their sons dying in the mud of WW1?

[fdr]

Originally Posted by ORAC

Putin’s speech.

As expected, mobilisation of all reserves, annexation of the invaded Ukranian Oblasts including Kherson and a threat of the use of nukes if any attempt is made to reclaim them.

Good old Vlad' ! Apparently he has more confidence in the maintenance teams of the nukular force than would arise from recent displays of soviet maintenance practices.

Here's the thing; for the rest of the world to bend over and accept this without K.Y. jelly is to give over global domination to a psycho. This is as before, nuclear terrorism. He has zero legal right for what he is doing, it is time for the UN to censure Russia for being a terrorist state and act accordingly. The threat Pukin makes is to everyone on the 3rd rock, and that is an existential threat to civilisation, to which he assumes everyone else bends over, and, we don't even get to spoon afterwards.

No thanks; count me out of that plan. Prefer to stand up irrespective of the consequences than be subjugated to a psycho. I would be making noise to go to a higher DEFCON, as the UK, and the USA and the rest of the world has been explicitly threatened apparently.

If the UN GA and UN SC cannot see their way clear to save planet earth from this psycho, not sure why they get treated so well to represent us, they sure haven't done their job for at least the last 77 years.

SPF - 1,000,000, lots of iodine, step away from the light, and lets get this party rockin'. The rest of the rock may have issues, but 3 losers on an exchange at this time will be Russia, (lots of car parking available, no night lights needed) China, (expect a biblical famine) and India (famine for sure). As far as the UK goes, really guys, it isn't the same without the old lady, and once we left the EU, it really lost some colour and panache.

Question: how many nukes did Ukraine keep after 1991? Does Russia really think that all nukes were handed over in the utterly abysmal, shambolic transfer of devices following the morally bankrupt treaty that Russia entered into to maintain and defend the integrity of Ukraine, along with the rest of the world that was a party to the sell-out of Ukraine at that time? I suspect that not every bucket was returned to the shelf. Would be quietly happy to see Ukraine be provided facility to end Russia and specifically "the Dumma", those that have enabled Vlad.

Popcorn is cookin'

Russia is downwind of every target they are talking about, part of their strategic plan of course. Well plaid/played!


Translation:

Putin says the west wants to "weaken, divide, and destroy Russia." He says the west "openly says they broke up the USSR in 1991, and now is the time to do the same to Russia"

meaning - "I #~c&'d up..."

Putin: "The main goals of the special military operation remain unchanged. The Luhansk People's Republic has been completely liberated, and the Donetsk People's Republic has been partly liberated."

meaning - I have more civilians to murder in Donetsk.

Putin says Russia will support the referendums in Russian-occupied Ukraine. "Russia can't give up people close to her to be torn apart by executioners and fail to respond to their desire to determine their own fate."

meaning - you will agree to be part of the workers paradise or we will kill you and anyway, forge your signature, and still bury you in the unmarked grave. Is my AK barrel uncomfortable?

Putin announces "partial mobilization" in Russia.

meaning - Putin tries to find able bodied males and finds that the potato crop was effectively used this year.

Putin says mobilization starts today but will only affect people who are already in the army reserve. He's already signed the decree.

meaning - looking for anyone to get my a$$ out of the frying pan that I have placed myself in.

And here comes the nuclear part. He accuses the west of using "nuclear blackmail" against Russia.

meaning - I can use scary words, and you shall tremble and pay homage to me, Count Vlad, ruler of the universe.

(seriously, when has the west threatened Russia at all, they don't need to, Russia already has an enemy, he is in the Kremlin, named Vlad. ).

Here's Putin's decree on mobilization. It says mobilized Russians will be treated the same as contract troops. The criteria for exemption are age, health, being in jail, and working in the armaments industry.

meaning - I will treat you with the same disregard that I treat every other Russian contractor, who I care less over.


Shoigu:

"We are not fighting with Ukraine, but with the collective west."
meaning - HELP!

And more nuclear threats: "All types of arms, including the nuclear triad, are fulfilling their tasks."
meaning - you have seen our poppy tanks, our out of date rat packs, our rotten tyres, and our exploding cannons. You have been treated to our S-300's that boomerang to the sender, wait until you see our submarines, the mighty Kursk, our amazing Typhoons.... well, can you wait while we build a few more Borei's? Our LB ICBMs have been kept in tip top condition by the same people that gave us... the failed missiles from the Borei SLBM testing from the Typhoon.... We also have Backfires and Bears, they were good back in... 1960. Nothing wrong with that picture. Please don't mention the K-19, K-129 the K-219 and pretty much every other submarine that had the misfortune to be part of our mighty navy, including the Moskva, which filled a hole in our sub fleet.

And we are downwind of every target of note.

You Tube

T28B: Feel free to relocate this post to the sin-bin/JB as desired. We are way past normal, the clock is 10 seconds to midnight, and we are about to find out if we are surrounded by lions or sheep. I think we are led by mice; the lack of moral fortitude by our representatives in the UN are in the process that brings us to this odd point in history. Article 27(3) has been there since 1945, and has been used, even applied to the UK, so why are we waiting for the adults to actually do their damned duty? WTF!

Russia declaring someone elses land as theirs by corrupt means and then threatening a response for a response that is sanctioned under the UN Charter is the last damned straw for the UN's gutless stance for 77 years. It is due to the rights given to Russia that NATO was established. It is time to declare Ukraine as a full member of NATO, or for the UN to abide by their charter. (phat chance... )

[Fitter2]

Hi fdr, nice to see the voice of reason and diplomacy again.

Seriously, surely there are people near him (or at least close to the other end of his 'conference table') who can see that he is delusional, and they are going to join him when it all falls apart.

For someone who has being threatening anyone supporting Ukraine with extreme consequences since February, to now accuse others of nuclear blackmail is so batshit crazy even his best friends must have noticed.

Meanwhile, the Reporting from Ukraine youtube channel https://youtube.com/c/ReportingfromUkraine provides a sober daily (24 hours behind) assessment of reality on the ground (including aviation, I hope the above isn't too political for the Mil thread.).

[sealo0]

Originally Posted by fdr

Includes parachutes?

I hope UKR packed them!!

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...rJfiZ8UQRxGF4g

Full text of the mobilisation decree.

[fdr]

Originally Posted by ORAC

Full text of the mobilisation decree.

Wow.

It is time for the west to support Ukraine's bonus for defecting to Ukraine. I doubt that the risks to the existing contractors to the Russian farce ooops, my bad, "force", wouldn't have a better prospect of a long life as a Ukrainian, until Putin and the rest of the Dumber (it's apparently a silent "B", much like the voice of reason in governance of Russia).

Time for German, French, and all other EU countries to start rolling supplies into Ukraine, after all, it doesn't matter if they glow in the dark in Paris, Frankfurt, Gandalfo or Sieverdonetsk... The fight is in Ukraine, not the Avenue desChamps-Élysées.

[rattman]

Originally Posted by fdr

Wow.

It is time for the west to support Ukraine's bonus for defecting to Ukraine. I doubt that the risks to the existing contractors to the Russian farce ooops, my bad, "force", would have a better prospect of a long life as a Ukrainian, until Putin and the rest of the Dumber (it's apparently a silent "B", much like the voice of reason in governance of Russia).

Offer them citizenship in any western country of thier choice, new identification, 10% of value of whatever hardware they bring with them

[peter we]

Originally Posted by skua

Listening to Sergei Markov on Radio 4 Today just now, my first impression is that many Russians have brains wired in a completely different way to Westerners. Irrational wasn't the half of it. Cornered rats, etc....Scary times.

It very important to understand that Russians are not Westerners, they are as different as the Chinese.

[Xeptu]

I think we should run a competition to see how long Putin lasts, starting from Sun 25th Sept. Week 1 week 2 and so on. We can place the week number at the beginning of each post. I reckon we wont hear from vlad for a time when the bad news breaks that something has happened to him. Lets make it when it happened not when we hear about it.

[NutLoose]

Originally Posted by peter we

It very important to understand that Russians are not Westerners, they are as different as the Chinese.

Who incidentally, I wonder how China are taking Russia's statement that they intend to be the "Axis of a new World order".