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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 10th Nov 2022, 20:38
  #11461 (permalink)  
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The Ukrainians really aren't letting the Russians leave Kherson peacefully. (Watch for the flying rocks too!).

Large explosions on the left bank of the Dnipro.

Retreating Russians not having a good time...
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Old 10th Nov 2022, 20:46
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From The Netherlands' Elsevier Weekblad via Visegrád 24 10th Nov 2022

The Netherlands is planning to donate some its surplus F-16s to NATO states on the eastern flank in exchange for them sending their MiG-29 and Sukhoi fighter jets to Ukraine.

The original Dutch version
https://www.ewmagazine.nl/nederland/...kraine-909654/

JAS
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Old 10th Nov 2022, 21:28
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The worry I see is having drawn the Russians into their carefully constructed trap, they are struggling to keep them on the right bank where they could deplete their resources and destroy them, letting them “retreat” is allowing them to escape that trap, build defensive positions on the far bank that may be difficult to breach and hence be able to reduce the amount of troops required to hold the line, while allowing those troops and their equipment to be moved elsewhere where needed in the Donbas.


Russia have learned to retreat, so far it's very orderly, and less than expected for full-scale retreat. In last 4 hours approximately 200 vehicles have crossed Kahovka dam.
Russia has left first defensive line, and is taking 2nd and 3rd lines, which go along irrigation channels and are good as anti-tank barriers. Bridges are being destroyed, and unexpected pontoon bridges set up for retreats, not allowing to target traffic jams near bridges.

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Old 10th Nov 2022, 21:52
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
The worry I see is having drawn the Russians into their carefully constructed trap, they are struggling to keep them on the right bank where they could deplete their resources and destroy them, letting them “retreat” is allowing them to escape that trap, build defensive positions on the far bank that may be difficult to breach and hence be able to reduce the amount of troops required to hold the line, while allowing those troops and their equipment to be moved elsewhere where needed in the Donbas.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...20788927102976
Didn't you and I debate this question ( with no resolution ) a month or two back ?
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Old 10th Nov 2022, 21:54
  #11465 (permalink)  
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It seems like the Russians really have ballsed up their withdrawal….


https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...956923393.html


WOW❗️

Both Ukrainian and Russian sources are reporting that a large number of Russian troops have been trapped on the right side of the Dnipro river.

Last edited by ORAC; 10th Nov 2022 at 22:05.
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Old 10th Nov 2022, 21:59
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An interesting read from a junior reserve officer on Russias failings.

Russian telegram military channel Voenkor Kotenok published an opinion piece by a Russian “Combat veteran, reserve officer” regarding the situation in Ukraine. We bring the translation below:
Combat veteran, reserve officer on the military operations in Ukraine (subscriber’s opinion):

1. Kherson

To be honest, I don’t understand why we should surrender Kherson. I brush aside thoughts about sham agreements. And if this is not politics, but war, then there are two things that I am sure of: the Kherson bridgehead at this stage could never have been taken by the enemy, until the summer for sure. At the same time, it is also problematic for us at the moment to capture the fortifications near Donetsk with the forces and means that we have. There is now a shortage of high-level military leaders, like Teplinsky and the same Surovikin, who, relatively speaking, could solve the issue of the enemy’s Donetsk fortified area.

The entire large Donetsk agglomeration is settlements passing into each other. For 8 years of combat actions, the enemy managed to form a single fortified area here with underground communications and mines. This is where we have no progress. I repeat, in the same way, before the beginning of spring, there was little hope for the enemy in the Kherson bridgehead. The distances are huge, we have firepower, we dug in, the big city turns into a fortified area, and it was possible to beat up the hohols [Ukrainians] as much as necessary. Why not? There is no answer to the question. Unless it’s a sham deal.

2. Kyiv and Kharkiv

We moved away from Kyiv, Kharkiv. Do we still have no strength to press ahead, to approach Kharkiv, so that they couldn’t ride there freely from Lopan’ to Kupyansk? Do we even have the desire, if we have the strength? We have what we have.

I talked with the acting brigade commanders in the Kyiv direction. These are those who kept Kyiv in a horseshoe. In principle, if the task had been set, then we would have taken Kyiv, perhaps with great sacrifices. We stood 5 km away, in the suburbs. Yes, we would have beaten them. Yes, civilian casualties, carpet bombing, but we would have taken Kyiv at that moment.

Because the hohols have not yet recovered then, at that time we had a grouping sufficient to take Kyiv, it could be pumped up to storm the capital. That is, taking into account the fact that the contractors were not knocked out in the amounts in which they are knocked out now. The troops were trained, not just 2 months of training. In the airborne and special forces, there were highly prepared contract soldiers.

Moreover, Kyiv would be taken faster than Kharkiv. Kharkiv has been at war for 8 years, a front-line city, it has hospitals, and developed infrastructure. Kyiv is the entertainment industry.

They have already started getting slowly exhausted. A little more, and it would be possible to go to Kyiv. In principle, I have a question, why was it necessary to leave Kyiv? It was possible to cross the Dnieper, leaving it on the right, and stay near Kyiv! From the right flank: a cover of the wide Dnieper, and on the left side – the Russian-speaking Chernihiv region, from where it would be possible to constantly threaten Kyiv and have a springboard for dissecting Ukraine.

This would be a threat of a further campaign along the Dnieper. It was possible to leave the right bank, transfer equipment to the left bank, gain a foothold on Pripyat, transfer the main forces to the left bank, continue the cleansing of the Chernihiv region, finally resolve the issue with Chernihiv, block and take it.

The country must change – this is the only condition with which Russia will stand

3. The technical component of the war

Let’s return to reality. We are entering the winter campaign, including potbelly stoves, trenches, and the technical superiority of the enemy. This factor becomes decisive. 40% of the world GDP is at war with 1.5% of the world GDP.

We had a chance to end the campaign with a victory before Lend-Lease kicked in. After that, the number of options is reduced to a minimum. This is pure economics. Barrel wear, etc. Our industry is not managing it. A set of measures is needed, and it’s still not turned on.

Familiar UAV specialists tell us: “Our “Okhotnik” is a very good UAV. One of the best in the world, but WE STILL DO NOT PRODUCE IT!”. There are very good developments in UAVs, but we do all startups abroad because it is impossible to work here.

Another example: there are very good small arms producers – the same Lobaev. Who has now been given the contract for rifles to replace the SVD? Kalashnikov. We have a very good AK replacement, but is anyone talking about it? We have real inventors, in the same Chelyabinsk, who can make our shells more PRECISE. It’s possible. Are they involved, do we work with them? No.

4. What to do?

To save Russia, a set of measures is needed. This is not an exaggeration, this is reality.

The country must change. The approach must change. But we have the same at war and in the rears, everything is half-assed, one step forward – two steps back. Some rumors about agreements with “partners”. They say, we will give Kherson, and they will leave us alone. Like, everything will be as it was before February, we will again export oil and gas there, imitate everything and everyone, and invest money in yachts.

The Manilovs [dreamers] will soon be hit on the heads. Why would the enemy need that? Everything is fine in these plans, but they forget to ask the enemy. Why should the enemy give up when he has the initiative and has victories, when he has a consolidated society, unlike ours? What motivation does he have to meet us halfway?

So, either we change approaches in everything and start to fight for real, since we have already begun. The second option is not to change and accept it as it is. End.

https://wartranslated.com/opinion-of...on-in-ukraine/
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Old 10th Nov 2022, 22:01
  #11467 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Didn't you and I debate this question ( with no resolution ) a month or two back ?
They only decided to withdraw from Kherson this week, so no.
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Old 10th Nov 2022, 22:46
  #11468 (permalink)  
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Russian telegram channels saying Ukrainians are smashing the crossing points where thousands of Russians are retreating across the Dnipro. This looks huge.
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Old 10th Nov 2022, 23:31
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BMPT Terminator

It's not linked at all to current posts, but they reminded me that two/three months ago this "terror" weapon was being introduced onto the battlefield. Since then ....................nothing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMPT_Terminator

Has anyone noticed anything at all ?
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Old 10th Nov 2022, 23:34
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
They only decided to withdraw from Kherson this week, so no.

The debate - at least as I saw it - was;

Do you attempt to kill as many as possible
Capture as many as possible with the consequential costs
Drive them out which allows them to attack you again
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Old 10th Nov 2022, 23:43
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Originally Posted by ORAC
It seems like the Russians really have ballsed up their withdrawal….

They seemed to manage to to keep day 1 of it pretty controlled. But Day 2, Apparently the rear guard units went screw this and retreated. Now the crossings are in range are being pounded. Time will tell how bad
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Old 11th Nov 2022, 00:27
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Not sure if that's being lucky or unlucky.




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Old 11th Nov 2022, 00:35
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Russian soldier stuck in his foxhole as they appear to be guiding a Ukrainian tank to run him over with its tracks.

Nothing unusual. It's just that a Ukrainian tank is crushing Russian infantry with its tracks Exclusive to you from one unit you've helped
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Old 11th Nov 2022, 00:54
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NutLoose, your cutting and pasting noise from Russian media outlets onto this PPRuNe thread is not within the interest of the Military Aviation forum.
As you find other interesting, or purely bombastic, tidbits like this from various Russian media outlets feel free to post them in Jet Blast - in that context they may provide a source of innocent merriment.
But they don't belong here.
T28B

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Old 11th Nov 2022, 05:48
  #11475 (permalink)  
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KHERSON/2350 UTC 10 NOV/ RU troops have fallen rapidly down the M-14 HWY axis. UKR troops have followed to the outskirts of Kherson. Local sources report massive RU casualties from continued UKR artillery strikes on Kherson crossing points.

I estimate that Ukraine has around 200+ barrels and 100+ rocket launchers in the Kherson region... which are now raining 600+ shells and 200+ rockets a minute (!) down on four football field sized ferry crossings, which are overcrowded with russian soldiers.

Crossings of Death!
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Old 11th Nov 2022, 07:34
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Antonovsky Bridge not looking its best.





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Old 11th Nov 2022, 07:39
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TASS in Russia praises the capability of KA-52's and their crews for flying the thing out of envelope.
By saying they are increasing the radius of destruction they probably just rephrase that they have no idea where the missiles went


Originally Posted by MOSCOW, 11 November. TASS
The crews of reconnaissance and attack helicopters Ka-52 use the machine better than its characteristics in a special military operation in Ukraine. So, the helicopter is designed for a pitch-up angle of 20 degrees, but in a special operation, missiles are launched at an angle of 40-45 degrees, a source in the military department told TASS.
"Now in the special operation, helicopters fly at low altitudes and at those speeds at which it is possible to fly over the terrain. Usually, the Ka-52's pitch angle is 20 degrees, and pilots now launch missiles from a pitch angle of 40-45 degrees," the source said. agencies.

He stressed that the crews operate the helicopter at the limit of its capabilities. "And although the design of this military helicopter was based on the same initial data, the machines successfully cope with the tasks assigned to them," he added.

Earlier, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation has repeatedly stated that army aviation crews inflict fire damage on the enemy by launching unguided aircraft missiles from a pitch-up. This increases the radius of destruction and provides increased survivability of crews by reducing the flight time in the enemy's air defense detection zone. Crews of the Ka-52 carry out launches of 80-mm S-8 unguided rockets and Vikhr guided missiles.

https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/16296411
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Old 11th Nov 2022, 07:50
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Multiple spans dropped:

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Old 11th Nov 2022, 09:06
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That makes sense, it will not have been the Ukrainians that dropped it, but the Russians to strengthen their position on the other bank, you wouldn't want a major bridge left standing that might be repaired and the Russians probably do not have anything of the accuracy needed to hit it after they retreat. As the Ukrainians do have accurate weapons, then holding / defending the other end would have been problematic for the Russians. I wonder if some of the barge bridge were packed with explosives?

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.

Last edited by NutLoose; 11th Nov 2022 at 09:57.
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Old 11th Nov 2022, 09:43
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This is going to be the problem, destroying these beggars,


and yeah.. right, we believe you

Russian Defense Ministry gives update on Kherson withdrawal

Redeployment across the Dnieper River was completed on Friday morning, with no loss of life or equipment, it stated

Russian forces have completed the redeployment to the left bank of the River Dnieper in Kherson Region, the Defense Ministry has said. The maneuver was completed early Friday morning, according to the statement.

The ministry denied reports that military hardware was abandoned on the other bank, or that Russian troops suffered casualties during the withdrawal.

“Russian units have taken the prepared defensive lines and positions,” the ministry said. “No loss of personnel, weapons, vehicles, or materiel of the Russian forces was allowed. All civilians who wished to leave the right bank of Kherson Region were provided with assistance.”

The statement claimed that Ukrainian troops tried to disrupt the movement of civilians across the river with artillery fire, but failed to do so. Russia intercepted 28 rockets fired by HIMARS launchers and diverted five others through electronic countermeasures, it said.

Russian artillery and aircraft deterred Ukrainian units from closing the gap with the river, the military added. They were stopped at least 30km from the river crossings, according to the statement.

Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu ordered the troops to move across the river on Wednesday morning. He said the step was taken to avoid unnecessary deaths of the soldiers and to take up a stronger defensive position.

The decision, which was described as “difficult” by military officials, left the provincial capital, Kherson, exposed to capture by Kiev’s forces. The regional authorities have urged residents of the city for weeks to leave and go to safe places to the east.

Russia incorporated Kherson Region last month, after the people voted in a referendum to break away from Ukraine and join Russia. Kiev called the vote a “sham” and pledged to keep fighting until all land that it considers to be rightfully Ukrainian is taken.
https://lund.news/russian-defense-mi...on-withdrawal/
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