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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 20th Sep 2022, 14:47
  #9421 (permalink)  
 
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More likely an identifying tattoo. Their faces are blurred for the same reason.
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Old 20th Sep 2022, 14:53
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Awesome if true. Wagner and Kadyrovites are said to be responsible of the worst atrocities.



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Old 20th Sep 2022, 15:25
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Originally Posted by Beamr
Awesome if true. Wagner and Kadyrovites are said to be responsible of the worst atrocities.
Also means none of them will be able to travel outside Russia ever again.
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Old 20th Sep 2022, 15:31
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FR24 showing RSD8 Russian Special Flight Squadron - IL96 enroute now to JFK - Diplomatic extraction?

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Old 20th Sep 2022, 15:37
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Originally Posted by Imagegear
FR24 showing RSD8 Russian Special Flight Squadron - IL96 enroute now to JFK - Diplomatic extraction?

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Lavrov and his cronies on their way to the UN meeting.
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Old 20th Sep 2022, 15:41
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Thanks Beamr, I neglected to make the connection.

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Old 20th Sep 2022, 15:54
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Thread - usual caveats apply.

Link:

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Old 20th Sep 2022, 16:03
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I'm puzzled. I thought that Lavrov and cronies were banned?
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Old 20th Sep 2022, 16:17
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Article 4 of the treaty under which the UN is based in the USA.

The USA agreed free access, regardless of any national, federal or local laws.

https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publicat...47-English.pdf
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Old 20th Sep 2022, 16:26
  #9430 (permalink)  
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Reference the Russian law change…

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...210089985.html


Take it as unconfirmed:

"After 23.59 today (Moscow time), men aged 18 to 65 will be prohibited from leaving Russia abroad." - Bochkala_WAR on TG
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Old 20th Sep 2022, 16:30
  #9431 (permalink)  
 
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How can he go to war against what he claims is Russia itself, it makes a nonesense of his whole posture, the only way he can go to war is if he recognises Ukraine as a Sovereign Nation.

Really it's just more of the same old rhetoric, bluff, bluster and bullsh*t just polished up and regurgitated, and he knows he is losing, he just needs a way out and there are windows a plenty in Moscow.


..

Last edited by NutLoose; 20th Sep 2022 at 16:43.
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Old 20th Sep 2022, 16:31
  #9432 (permalink)  
 
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So, whats going on currently
- four Russian occupied areas are arranging a referendum in a very fast pace, by next tuesday.
- today Russian Duma approved to add war time crimes to criminal code, in essence in times of mobilization eg "voluntary surrender" is punished with years of service in the gulags.
- Putin is said to make a statememt on the referendums in the state TV late tonight
- Russian Kilos pulled away from Crimea, also Kerch bridge protective barges are said to be pulled away. Z-force regrouping in occupied territories.
- Lavrov on his way to UN meeting and I would expect him to emphasize the Russias right to defend its territory
- today Lukashenka ordered Belarus army to strengthen the defense of Belarus and prepare for wartime norms
This all smells like escalation.

I'm now playing a bit with scenarios, hoping I'm wrong on this...
Today Putin announces support to referendums, tomorrow Lavrov states in the UN that any attempt to attack "Russian soil" will justify a war and that ir Russia is threatened it will use NBC if necessary hoping that the rest of the world buys that threat,. By next Tuesday the four areas announce "wish to join Russia" and that is swiftly approved by Putin just like the help request by Penis Dushilin in February, Ukraine disagrees and continues the push to liberate its territories, Putin announces mobilization and declares war due to "attack against mother Rossija". It will only be a part mobilization so that it only affects men of certain age and training, to gather some 100-200000 troops as they can't handle more troops (lack of equipment, trained people, officers etc) and to not make the entire population angry (especially st Pete and Moskva areas).
Lukashenka has been blackmailed to join the war within the "state union" and he has no option as he knows how Russia left Armenia on its own and he can"t stay on power without Putins support.

As Russians already know that the declaration of war opens the gates for attacks anywhere without Ukraine having to consider possibility for further escalation, so as the subs are most easily destroyed in ports those are already pulled into safety.

Problem for Russians is that mobilization takes time. It takes at least months to make any real effect in the front unless they just drive the fresh troops to the border by trains and leave them there, WW2 style, some have the rifles and others have the ammo. And this delay would be the opportunity for Ukraine to make a breakthrough, but it would require the West to disregard the NBC thteats and make a big boost on arms deliveries to Ukraine: MBTs, long range missiles, even thise A10's or vipers if Ukraine has some pilots as rumoured, anything and everything they need. Make the Z-forces current forces annihilate so that some 100k new troops won't make a difference.

I hope I'm wrong on this.

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Old 20th Sep 2022, 16:37
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I smell desperation on Putinís part. The military bit simply doesnít function as he had hoped, so now heís trying high politics and nationalism. Heís treading a tightrope that could go horribly wrong for everyone Ö Ukraine, Russia and the West.
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Old 20th Sep 2022, 16:51
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""After 23.59 today (Moscow time), men aged 18 to 65 will be prohibited from leaving Russia abroad." Unconfirmed"
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Old 20th Sep 2022, 16:52
  #9435 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by FUMR
I'm puzzled. I thought that Lavrov and cronies were banned?
Banning Russian diplomats from the UN would be counter-productive.
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Old 20th Sep 2022, 17:04
  #9436 (permalink)  
 
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Is it too much to hope that these 'referendums' might actually not be a scam event, and he can then announce that they voted to not be Russian, and this becomes his out strategy justification to the Russian sheep...........just all seems a bit too soon after he's got given some 'hard facts' of realty by the Chinese, Indians and others at his recent Asian security summit, especially with further unrest on his southern border states?

I still can't see Ukraine giving up getting Crimea back now though, even if my left-field hope above were to be true.
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Old 20th Sep 2022, 17:06
  #9437 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK
Banning Russian diplomats from the UN would be counter-productive.
That was not my point!

ORAC answered my question.

And let's be honest, it's very doubtful that their presence will be productive!
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Old 20th Sep 2022, 17:30
  #9438 (permalink)  
 
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UKR sinks RF barge

Ukraine Sinks Russian Barge 'Loaded With Weapons, Equipment': Military (msn.com)

Story too long to copy
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Old 20th Sep 2022, 18:24
  #9439 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Beamr
- today Lukashenka ordered Belarus army to strengthen the defense of Belarus and prepare for wartime norms. (skip a bit)
This all smells like escalation.
Yes, it does, but I wonder at how effective Mr Lukashenka will be.
Lukashenka has been blackmailed to join the war within the "state union" and he has no option as he knows how Russia left Armenia on its own and he can"t stay on power without Putins support.
He is between a rock and a hard place. I get the feeling from what little I read on his situation that he hasn't the same amount of support in Belarus that Putin has in Russia. If he tells the troops "go" he may get "get stuffed" for an answer. Or not. And given Belarus' position, a quick strike with air and ground assets could seriously set UKR back. I expect that EW and SIGINT assets are keeping a very sharp eye on Belarus.
And this delay would be the opportunity for Ukraine to make a breakthrough, but it would require the West to disregard the NBC threats and make a big boost on arms deliveries to Ukraine: MBTs, long range missiles, even thise A10's or vipers if Ukraine has some pilots as rumoured, anything and everything they need. Make the Z-forces current forces annihilate so that some 100k new troops won't make a difference.
Not sure how quickly they could get up to speed on Warthogs or Vipers.
Originally Posted by dead_pan
Personally I cannot see any scenario where Putin would use a tactical nuke, even if Crimea was seriously under threat.
I sincerely hope that you are right.
The mood music at last weeks meeting in Kazakhstan strongly suggests his "allies" are getting heartily fed up with the whole enterprise and wish him to conclude something quickly.
Yeah, I think he just realized that going "all in" on Ukraine has left him exposed. And the Armenians are feeling it already.
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Old 20th Sep 2022, 18:40
  #9440 (permalink)  
 
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The UAF have already attacked targets in the Crimea, which the Russians consider as their territory. So why would the annexation of other Ukrainian territory stop the UAF from continuing with their objectives?
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