Is Ukraine about to have a war?
Awesome if true. Wagner and Kadyrovites are said to be responsible of the worst atrocities.
Thread - usual caveats apply.
Link:
Link:
I'm puzzled. I thought that Lavrov and cronies were banned?
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Article 4 of the treaty under which the UN is based in the USA.
The USA agreed free access, regardless of any national, federal or local laws.
https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publicat...47-English.pdf
The USA agreed free access, regardless of any national, federal or local laws.
https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publicat...47-English.pdf
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Reference the Russian law change…
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...210089985.html
Take it as unconfirmed:
"After 23.59 today (Moscow time), men aged 18 to 65 will be prohibited from leaving Russia abroad." - Bochkala_WAR on TG
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...210089985.html
Take it as unconfirmed:
"After 23.59 today (Moscow time), men aged 18 to 65 will be prohibited from leaving Russia abroad." - Bochkala_WAR on TG
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How can he go to war against what he claims is Russia itself, it makes a nonesense of his whole posture, the only way he can go to war is if he recognises Ukraine as a Sovereign Nation.
Really it's just more of the same old rhetoric, bluff, bluster and bullsh*t just polished up and regurgitated, and he knows he is losing, he just needs a way out and there are windows a plenty in Moscow.
..
Really it's just more of the same old rhetoric, bluff, bluster and bullsh*t just polished up and regurgitated, and he knows he is losing, he just needs a way out and there are windows a plenty in Moscow.
..
Last edited by NutLoose; 20th Sep 2022 at 16:43.
So, whats going on currently
- four Russian occupied areas are arranging a referendum in a very fast pace, by next tuesday.
- today Russian Duma approved to add war time crimes to criminal code, in essence in times of mobilization eg "voluntary surrender" is punished with years of service in the gulags.
- Putin is said to make a statememt on the referendums in the state TV late tonight
- Russian Kilos pulled away from Crimea, also Kerch bridge protective barges are said to be pulled away. Z-force regrouping in occupied territories.
- Lavrov on his way to UN meeting and I would expect him to emphasize the Russias right to defend its territory
- today Lukashenka ordered Belarus army to strengthen the defense of Belarus and prepare for wartime norms
This all smells like escalation.
I'm now playing a bit with scenarios, hoping I'm wrong on this...
Today Putin announces support to referendums, tomorrow Lavrov states in the UN that any attempt to attack "Russian soil" will justify a war and that ir Russia is threatened it will use NBC if necessary hoping that the rest of the world buys that threat,. By next Tuesday the four areas announce "wish to join Russia" and that is swiftly approved by Putin just like the help request by Penis Dushilin in February, Ukraine disagrees and continues the push to liberate its territories, Putin announces mobilization and declares war due to "attack against mother Rossija". It will only be a part mobilization so that it only affects men of certain age and training, to gather some 100-200000 troops as they can't handle more troops (lack of equipment, trained people, officers etc) and to not make the entire population angry (especially st Pete and Moskva areas).
Lukashenka has been blackmailed to join the war within the "state union" and he has no option as he knows how Russia left Armenia on its own and he can"t stay on power without Putins support.
As Russians already know that the declaration of war opens the gates for attacks anywhere without Ukraine having to consider possibility for further escalation, so as the subs are most easily destroyed in ports those are already pulled into safety.
Problem for Russians is that mobilization takes time. It takes at least months to make any real effect in the front unless they just drive the fresh troops to the border by trains and leave them there, WW2 style, some have the rifles and others have the ammo. And this delay would be the opportunity for Ukraine to make a breakthrough, but it would require the West to disregard the NBC thteats and make a big boost on arms deliveries to Ukraine: MBTs, long range missiles, even thise A10's or vipers if Ukraine has some pilots as rumoured, anything and everything they need. Make the Z-forces current forces annihilate so that some 100k new troops won't make a difference.
I hope I'm wrong on this.
- four Russian occupied areas are arranging a referendum in a very fast pace, by next tuesday.
- today Russian Duma approved to add war time crimes to criminal code, in essence in times of mobilization eg "voluntary surrender" is punished with years of service in the gulags.
- Putin is said to make a statememt on the referendums in the state TV late tonight
- Russian Kilos pulled away from Crimea, also Kerch bridge protective barges are said to be pulled away. Z-force regrouping in occupied territories.
- Lavrov on his way to UN meeting and I would expect him to emphasize the Russias right to defend its territory
- today Lukashenka ordered Belarus army to strengthen the defense of Belarus and prepare for wartime norms
This all smells like escalation.
I'm now playing a bit with scenarios, hoping I'm wrong on this...
Today Putin announces support to referendums, tomorrow Lavrov states in the UN that any attempt to attack "Russian soil" will justify a war and that ir Russia is threatened it will use NBC if necessary hoping that the rest of the world buys that threat,. By next Tuesday the four areas announce "wish to join Russia" and that is swiftly approved by Putin just like the help request by Penis Dushilin in February, Ukraine disagrees and continues the push to liberate its territories, Putin announces mobilization and declares war due to "attack against mother Rossija". It will only be a part mobilization so that it only affects men of certain age and training, to gather some 100-200000 troops as they can't handle more troops (lack of equipment, trained people, officers etc) and to not make the entire population angry (especially st Pete and Moskva areas).
Lukashenka has been blackmailed to join the war within the "state union" and he has no option as he knows how Russia left Armenia on its own and he can"t stay on power without Putins support.
As Russians already know that the declaration of war opens the gates for attacks anywhere without Ukraine having to consider possibility for further escalation, so as the subs are most easily destroyed in ports those are already pulled into safety.
Problem for Russians is that mobilization takes time. It takes at least months to make any real effect in the front unless they just drive the fresh troops to the border by trains and leave them there, WW2 style, some have the rifles and others have the ammo. And this delay would be the opportunity for Ukraine to make a breakthrough, but it would require the West to disregard the NBC thteats and make a big boost on arms deliveries to Ukraine: MBTs, long range missiles, even thise A10's or vipers if Ukraine has some pilots as rumoured, anything and everything they need. Make the Z-forces current forces annihilate so that some 100k new troops won't make a difference.
I hope I'm wrong on this.
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I smell desperation on Putin’s part. The military bit simply doesn’t function as he had hoped, so now he’s trying high politics and nationalism. He’s treading a tightrope that could go horribly wrong for everyone … Ukraine, Russia and the West.
""After 23.59 today (Moscow time), men aged 18 to 65 will be prohibited from leaving Russia abroad." Unconfirmed"
Is it too much to hope that these 'referendums' might actually not be a scam event, and he can then announce that they voted to not be Russian, and this becomes his out strategy justification to the Russian sheep...........just all seems a bit too soon after he's got given some 'hard facts' of realty by the Chinese, Indians and others at his recent Asian security summit, especially with further unrest on his southern border states?
I still can't see Ukraine giving up getting Crimea back now though, even if my left-field hope above were to be true.
I still can't see Ukraine giving up getting Crimea back now though, even if my left-field hope above were to be true.
UKR sinks RF barge
Ukraine Sinks Russian Barge 'Loaded With Weapons, Equipment': Military (msn.com)
Story too long to copy
Story too long to copy
Lukashenka has been blackmailed to join the war within the "state union" and he has no option as he knows how Russia left Armenia on its own and he can"t stay on power without Putins support.
And this delay would be the opportunity for Ukraine to make a breakthrough, but it would require the West to disregard the NBC threats and make a big boost on arms deliveries to Ukraine: MBTs, long range missiles, even thise A10's or vipers if Ukraine has some pilots as rumoured, anything and everything they need. Make the Z-forces current forces annihilate so that some 100k new troops won't make a difference.
The mood music at last weeks meeting in Kazakhstan strongly suggests his "allies" are getting heartily fed up with the whole enterprise and wish him to conclude something quickly.
The UAF have already attacked targets in the Crimea, which the Russians consider as their territory. So why would the annexation of other Ukrainian territory stop the UAF from continuing with their objectives?