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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 19th Sep 2022, 22:36
  #9401 (permalink)  
 
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Some posts back was a photo of a captured RF munition dump with a comment that UKR does not accept gifts from murderers and rapists; so they will all be returned​​​​​​

Given RF shelling of UKR civilian targets and infrastructure, one wonders if UKF might consider returning RF munitions to RU civilian infrastructure locations as well as military targets in RU.

There are understandable strictures against using western supplied munitions against anything in RU, but no such strictures apply against captured RF munitions.
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Old 20th Sep 2022, 05:01
  #9402 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by fdr
Russia is playing with fire once more.

[aviation content! (just... )]

Missile strikes target the Mykolaev NPP support structure, landing adjacent to the containment structures,

Surely there is a point where the yellow streak inside the body of our politicians and representatives in the UN finds a set of bones that approximate a spine, and they finally declare Russia a Terrorist State. A tiny baltic state had the intestinal fortitude to call it asa they see it.

Attacking a NPP is utter reckless terrorism, Kangnam nukular style, and this is the 3rd time Russia has done so. They risk contaminating NATO countries and those that seem to have a foot in each camp...

Time for window cleaning?
Another red line that should invoke a retaliatory strike on a Russian facility of Ukraines choosing Nr Moscow, give them several long range HIMARS to carry them out and permission should another strike happen.
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Old 20th Sep 2022, 05:07
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Originally Posted by WB627
The only thing I can see that Putin will gain from the use of a tactical nuke, is a very large hole in the earth where Moscow or St. Petersburg used to be. I suspect that Biden has made that clear to him.
Russian open source strategic doctrine describes using low yield tactical nuclear weapons in a “escalate to de-escalate” strategy. So they nuke some small city in central Ukraine and say to Zelenski declare Donbas and Crimea belongs to Russia or we nuke more cities.

I think that there is no way Ukraine would capitulate but what if Putin decides to go for broke and keeps on upping the escalatory ladder ?

The big question is what does the West do now. Are we really ready to risk WWW3, or will Ukraine be pressured to give in ?

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Old 20th Sep 2022, 05:35
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Originally Posted by Big Pistons Forever

The big question is what does the West do now. Are we really ready to risk WWW3, or will Ukraine be pressured to give in ?
From Russian point of view that means that the West is weak and gives up if enough force is displayed. Then it will be Transnistria, Belarus, Georgia, the Baltics, Poland, Finland etc.
The Z-Team does not think like the West. They obey only power and any treaty is worth breaking if seen fit for purpose. The most current example is how they left Armenia on their own against Azerbaidjan despite Armenia being Russias very long term best friend (since the 19th century) eg. advertising Putin billboards on the streets.

If Ukraine is pressured to give in, it just means that the war goes on somewhere else in the very near future, in essence before Putin (age 69) dies as he wants to be the modern day Peter the Great and achieve the old Russian empire borders. Pressuring Ukraine to peace is not an option.
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Old 20th Sep 2022, 06:35
  #9405 (permalink)  
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Kerch bridge radar decoy barges removed.

H I Sutton - Covert Shores

OSINT: Russia Removes 2 Radar Decoys Protecting Kerch Bridge
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Old 20th Sep 2022, 06:52
  #9406 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Big Pistons Forever
Russian open source strategic doctrine describes using low yield tactical nuclear weapons in a “escalate to de-escalate” strategy. So they nuke some small city in central Ukraine and say to Zelenski declare Donbas and Crimea belongs to Russia or we nuke more cities.

I think that there is no way Ukraine would capitulate but what if Putin decides to go for broke and keeps on upping the escalatory ladder ?

The big question is what does the West do now. Are we really ready to risk WWW3, or will Ukraine be pressured to give in ?
I'm with beamr on this one BPF; to permit any back down in the face of aggression guarantees it comes again. There is no solution that exists where a NATO entry with troops on the ground into Ukraine is not required following a use of nuclear, biological or chemical weapons; the Pavlovian learner response otherwise is that Russia can threaten anyone at anytime, and have zero consequences. The only way to guarantee no escalation is to place a determined response that removes option from Russia, not one that gives a gift for aggression, that anything other than involvement of USA and NATO and other countries would include. In fact, as an aside, I'd invite China to take a bite out of Russia's backside too.

Putin is an existential threat to the 3rd rock, wishing otherwise doesn't change that, it emboldens him.

Spent a lot of my life chasing nukes, hate them with a passion. Hate people who threaten their use more.

Asymmetric options for Ukraine get pretty unpleasant for Russia, and are on the head of Putin; there is no one else pushing his agenda, it is all Putin.

Last edited by fdr; 20th Sep 2022 at 07:35.
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Old 20th Sep 2022, 08:33
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Straight off the assembly line.

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Old 20th Sep 2022, 08:43
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Personally I cannot see any scenario where Putin would use a tactical nuke, even if Crimea was seriously under threat. The US and NATO have made it eminently clear their use is a red line and would be responded to in kind. IMO this would most likely be an ultimatum to leave Ukraine and, if this wasn't done, a massive conventional response against Russia's forces in or postured towards Ukraine, effectively sweeping them from the battlefield.

I still reckon Putin is lining up for some kind of "mission accomplished" BS withdrawal from at least some of the occupied territories. The mood music at last weeks meeting in Kazakhstan strongly suggests his "allies" are getting heartily fed up with the whole enterprise and wish him to conclude something quickly.
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Old 20th Sep 2022, 09:31
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
I still reckon Putin is lining up for some kind of "mission accomplished" BS withdrawal from at least some of the occupied territories. The mood music at last weeks meeting in Kazakhstan strongly suggests his "allies" are getting heartily fed up with the whole enterprise and wish him to conclude something quickly.
We can but hope that this is the case.

The MOD tweet this morning about the fact that they have almost certainly relocated all their Black Sea fleet Kilo-Class subs from their home port of Sevastopol back to their 'old' home port of Novorossiysk is interesting.
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Old 20th Sep 2022, 10:00
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The Izium victims are beginning to have names.
However sad, this is important for the family to have knowledge of the fate of their loved ones but for the criminal investigation as well.


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Old 20th Sep 2022, 10:30
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Originally Posted by GeeRam
The MOD tweet this morning about the fact that they have almost certainly relocated all their Black Sea fleet Kilo-Class subs from their home port of Sevastopol back to their 'old' home port of Novorossiysk is interesting.
Putting them out of harm's way, no doubt (as confirmed by the story on the Telegraph website now). Sevastopol will never be a safe haven for Russia so long as the situation continues as-is.
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Old 20th Sep 2022, 10:55
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
Putting them out of harm's way, no doubt (as confirmed by the story on the Telegraph website now). Sevastopol will never be a safe haven for Russia so long as the situation continues as-is.
Russia is currently building a fair amount of ships in crimea. The big ticket is 2 * 40 000 ton project 23900 LHD. Could be funny they lost the mistrals because of the 2014 invaison, could lose these 2 as well because of 2022 invasion.
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Old 20th Sep 2022, 11:06
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Originally Posted by rattman
Russia is currently building a fair amount of ships in crimea. The big ticket is 2 * 40 000 ton project 23900 LHD. Could be funny they lost the mistrals because of the 2014 invaison, could lose these 2 as well because of 2022 invasion.
Hmm, because they've proven themselves to be so adept at amphibious and littoral ops... Also, I'd wager every nation around the Black Sea will be clamouring to acquire some sort of ASM capability to negate Russia's naval threat (such as it is).

Maybe they're planning to use them in Africa?

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Old 20th Sep 2022, 11:23
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What I cannot understand why would you commit genocide, bury the bodies in a wood and then allow crosses to be put up on them, surely they would have attempted to hide their attrocities.

As for Russian Mobilization, he is stuffed because as I read it, to declare war and commit to mobilization he has to recognise the country he is declaring was against as a Sovereign State, which goes against the script that Ukraine is part of Russia.
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Old 20th Sep 2022, 11:31
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
What I cannot understand why would you commit genocide, bury the bodies in a wood and then allow crosses to be put up on them, surely they would have attempted to hide their attrocities.
Can only imagine the Russians brought the bodies to that location from wherever the atrocities took place, hastily buried them, and then moved on and forgot about them. The crosses were added afterwards by Ukrainians who knew what had happened, where it had happened, and to whom it had happened.
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Old 20th Sep 2022, 12:04
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
What I cannot understand why would you commit genocide, bury the bodies in a wood and then allow crosses to be put up on them, surely they would have attempted to hide their attrocities.
As I understand it they believed deeply that this area will stay under their control forever. In that case they wouldn't think they would need to take any precaution in e.g. cremating the bodies etc.
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Old 20th Sep 2022, 12:43
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So they are going to hold referendums in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions in a couple of days time, one can only assume these rigged referendums will thus allow Russia to forcibly conscipt the male population, starting with those that accepted Russian passports.

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Old 20th Sep 2022, 13:00
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Originally Posted by Revnetwork
wow! Still in the wrapper!
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Old 20th Sep 2022, 13:25
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
I still reckon Putin is lining up for some kind of "mission accomplished" BS withdrawal from at least some of the occupied territories. The mood music at last weeks meeting in Kazakhstan strongly suggests his "allies" are getting heartily fed up with the whole enterprise and wish him to conclude something quickly.
He can declare what he wants but nobody else is obliged to take any notice. I doubt whether Ukraine would accept it and it would be no basis for the removal of sanctions. Putin needs to be forced to understand that he has gambled and lost.
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Old 20th Sep 2022, 13:31
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Buster,
They appear to have edited one image to possibly remove the face of his watch so as to hide the time?
The wrapper as you call it is

This tank is also covered with Nakidka radar-absorbent and heat-insulating material.
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