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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 18th Sep 2022, 23:13
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Russia is now entirely defenseless against NATO--by its own choice as it tries to fight in Ukraine. Putin showing how really unconcerned he is about a possible NATO threat--he is happy to leave Russia undefended.
So it turns out Russia is the paper tiger.... IMHO all the defense dollars spent have now justified themselves. Except Star Wars and a few other boondoggles.....
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Old 19th Sep 2022, 01:32
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Originally Posted by Winemaker
So it turns out Russia is the paper tiger.... IMHO all the defense dollars spent have now justified themselves. Except Star Wars and a few other boondoggles.....
I think we can safely assume that not much of Russia's anything actually works all that well. I note Putin is not banging the Nuclear drum anymore since he probably learned that all of his techs are in other countries seeking gainful employment and his arsenal hasn't been maintained for the last 22 years. He wouldn't want to attract global attention to that.
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Old 19th Sep 2022, 03:13
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NICE low level
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Old 19th Sep 2022, 05:32
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thread on Russia's rail supply lines to its occupying forces in Ukraine - how these have been affected by the recent Kharkiv offensive, and what's likely to happen next if, as I expect, Ukraine moves next to retake northern Luhansk oblast. 🧵

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...173541889.html
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Old 19th Sep 2022, 08:14
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I consider the recent Biden warning to Russia to not use tactical nukes more concerning. Hopefully they just picked a what they feel is a "quiet moment" to communicate this and don't see actual indications of any real world preparations.
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Old 19th Sep 2022, 08:18
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Mobile Russian recruiting office in Rostov, with promises of high wages.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/...nteer-soldiers
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Old 19th Sep 2022, 08:38
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Originally Posted by Less Hair
I consider the recent Biden warning to Russia to not use tactical nukes more concerning. Hopefully they just picked a what they feel is a "quiet moment" to communicate this and don't see actual indications of any real world preparations.
my thoughts exactly. The U.S. intel has been incredibly spot-on and Biden having time on tv and being so straight forward regarding the use of NBC and its consequences is a bit worrying. I hope I am wrong on this.
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Old 19th Sep 2022, 09:29
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Originally Posted by Less Hair
I consider the recent Biden warning to Russia to not use tactical nukes more concerning. Hopefully they just picked a what they feel is a "quiet moment" to communicate this and don't see actual indications of any real world preparations.
In the event the Russians deploy tactical nukes what would Ukraine's response be? Do they just sit it out knowing they will be destroyed or retreat and give territory to what could be just a bluff?
I don't think Ukraine has the ability for a massive convention response. The West of course does.
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Old 19th Sep 2022, 09:32
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Originally Posted by uxb99
In the event the Russians deploy tactical nukes what would Ukraine's response be? Do they just sit it out knowing they will be destroyed or retreat and give territory to what could be just a bluff?
I don't think Ukraine has the ability for a massive convention response. The West of course does.
I would imagine that 'actions on' have already been throughouly discussed between Ukraine and the West in the event of TNW or Chemical/Bio weapons being used by Putin.
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Old 19th Sep 2022, 09:35
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I would imagine there has been a non public part of the communication of President Biden to the Russians telling them what would happen in very clear terms.
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Old 19th Sep 2022, 10:04
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If Russia was to use TNWs in Ukraine, I believe the west would be dragged into direct conflict with Russia. Whilst I accept that western casualties would be high, I believe that Russia would be almost totally destroyed. I don't wish that on us or the Russian people. But, the question is: does Putin care?
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Old 19th Sep 2022, 10:30
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Good read on Yahoo as the state of play, to long to copy

https://news.yahoo.com/russia-might-...NgAv8Jy07Y32l9
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Old 19th Sep 2022, 10:33
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Old 19th Sep 2022, 10:48
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If anything signifies hope, that's it right there.
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Old 19th Sep 2022, 11:33
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Originally Posted by ORAC
thread on Russia's rail supply lines to its occupying forces in Ukraine - how these have been affected by the recent Kharkiv offensive, and what's likely to happen next if, as I expect, Ukraine moves next to retake northern Luhansk oblast.
The rail line from Voronezh - Valuyki into Luhansk via Troitske passes over the river Urazova via a bridge that's 12Km NNW of Troitske - this bridge is actually in Ukrainian territory (just), and now well within HIMARS range from the newly liberated Kharkiv Oblast. Expect to see some damage in the near future.
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Old 19th Sep 2022, 12:50
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I have moved the discussion about Russia/China to a thread in JB.
It is an Interesting topic; but spilling out of the boundaries of this thread and sub forum.
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Old 19th Sep 2022, 14:26
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Originally Posted by Xeptu
I think we can safely assume that not much of Russia's anything actually works all that well. I note Putin is not banging the Nuclear drum anymore since he probably learned that all of his techs are in other countries seeking gainful employment and his arsenal hasn't been maintained for the last 22 years. He wouldn't want to attract global attention to that.
He's letting others keep that rhetoric going.

To put this disturbing topic into an aviation context: I wonder if they have (without making a lot of noise about it) already fitted one of the Kinzhal missiles with a nuclear warhead, and could thus from their own airspace over their own territory launch one with high confidence that it would not be intercepted. Not sure what target would be worth that risk or escalation, since Russia is still communicating the party line about "special military operation" and not a declared war. (I am also not sure how you'd solve the fusing bit on a missile going that fast, but I don't think a nuke is really a precision strike weapon in any case).

My read (which is hardly expert) is that they'd not use a tactical nuke unless they were in a declared war.

Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 19th Sep 2022 at 14:37.
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Old 19th Sep 2022, 14:26
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Originally Posted by FUMR
If Russia was to use TNWs in Ukraine, I believe the west would be dragged into direct conflict with Russia. Whilst I accept that western casualties would be high, I believe that Russia would be almost totally destroyed. I don't wish that on us or the Russian people. But, the question is: does Putin care?
I hope the answer is will Russian powers force him to care? While Putin has his finger on the button Russia does have a track record for not allowing itself to be destroyed without reason. Cuban missile crisis has several examples of this.
At least let's hope so.
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Old 19th Sep 2022, 14:28
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
He's letting others keep that rhetoric going.

To put this disturbing topic into an aviation context: I wonder if they have (without making a lot of noise about it) already fitted one of the hypersonic missiles with a nuclear warhead, and could thus from their own airspace over their own territory launch one with high confidence that it would not be intercepted. Not sure what target would be worth that risk or escalation, since Russia is still banging on about "special military operation" and not a declared war. My read (which is hardly expert) is that they'd not use a tactical nuke unless they were in a declared war.
Can we assume a tactical nuke strike would just be a scorched earth policy by Putin? Or can something be gained from using one?
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Old 19th Sep 2022, 15:53
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Originally Posted by uxb99
Can we assume a tactical nuke strike would just be a scorched earth policy by Putin?
No. We can make no such assumption.
Or can something be gained from using one?
Raising the ante like that - and it's a major change in what's going on - would need to be done with some kind of gain in mind, but my ability to read minds in the Kremlin is not great.
My best guess is to create more fear of greater escalation, or to attempt to get European states to stop supporting Ukraine since as Mr Biden has pointed out (I'll paraphrase) "The missile are nearly impossible to stop".

If a recent Ukrainian analysis is roughly correct (they assert that Putin has less than 50 but more than 40 of them left)
and if the Russian decision was made to launch even one with a tactical nuclear tip to hit somewhere in Ukraine (pick a target, I've no idea what a best one for such a strike would be)
how many other Kinzhal's have had their warhead replaced with a nuke becomes the next great guessing game? That then lead to who is now under threat from inside Russian territory based on the nominal range of that missile?
All of Ukraine, for sure, and most NATO allies.
US territory is explicitly not under threat in a case like that, and thus the strategic aim might be to create a political divide between the US and the NATO allies in Europe based on fear of an attack that cannot be stopped and the demonstrated will to take that next step.
(As I look at the map, an aircraft armed with one of those could shoot it over the polar ice cap, but I think Canada is in between such a launch and the US, and I don't think Canada is annoying Putin sufficiently to warrant such a strike).
Also, a strike (even a tactical nuke) on US soil nearly guarantees that buckets of sunshine would rain down on various parts of Russia.
That leaves me with: if there is a real intent to do this, rather than a lot of bluster, an air-launched one would hit somewhere in Ukraine and then loads of political signaling (likely via back channel) would begin to inform those in various capitals that "you aren't safe either, you need to reconsider your position" ...

Yeah, it's a reach, almost Hollywoodish, and it's missing a lot of little details that are probably important.

Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 19th Sep 2022 at 16:05.
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