Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[Big Pistons Forever]

Originally Posted by etudiant

Mearsheimer uses 'offensive realism' as the description of international behavior, because there is no recourse to a central authority, prudent leaders try to ensure that the proximate states prefer to deal with you peacefully.

Yet the post Maidan government moved ahead with an anti Russian campaign even though about 25% of their people were primarily Russian speaking. Neighboring with Russia, that was not a prudent initiative..

I accept that as leaders of a sovereign nation, the actions by Kiev were legal, but considering there was no consent by the Russian minority to those actions, their revolt also seems legitimate to me. .

Consequently I do not see the Kiev leadership as heroes, but rather as the irresponsible instigators of this conflagration, much as the Serbian leadership helped set off WW1.

Mearsheimer writes that there is no plausible path for diplomacy currently visible, suggesting that this war will become considerably worse. His judgement has been proven correct thus far.

I am having trouble making the connection here. Are you saying that 25% of the Ukrainian population wanted Ukraine to be part of Russia, not an independent country ?

Do you see Russia having any responsibility to end this conflict ?

[Tartiflette Fan]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

I’m sorry, I know a lot of people slate Boris off on here, but he does not need to do this as his term is coming to an end, but has and absolute kudos to him for doing it,

It is of little import now, but i think it was his attempt to overcome the waves of bad decisions and unpopularity : it was a potential life-belt to keep him afloat and surviving which is his sole aim in life..

[Video Mixdown]

Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan

It is of little import now, but i think it was his attempt to overcome the waves of bad decisions and unpopularity : it was a potential life-belt to keep him afloat and surviving which is his sole aim in life..

​​This thread is about the war, and it is undeniable that the PM and UK Government have played a leading role in assembling the international support that has allowed Ukraine to defend itself so effectively - a role that is likely to continue long after he has left office.

[NutLoose]

Originally Posted by JustinHeywood

https://twitter.com/juliadavisnews/s...lmmtA4snLO2yZQ

Wow.
‘Someday’ Ukrainians and Russians will march together into Warsaw and Berlin.

I wonder if he is referring to Ukraine delivering prisoners to a EU warcrimes commission

[NutLoose]

Sorry my unintentional slip….back to the war

The pontoon bridge being built

Twitter

[Tartiflette Fan]

An interesting - but very long and detailed - read from "The Institute for the Study of War"

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...nflict-updates

This comment in particular highlighted for me the degree to which the Russian army is incapable of advancing.

"

• Russian forces have lost an area larger than Denmark since the high-water mark of their invasion of Ukraine in mid-March and gained an area the size of Andorra (one percent of what they have lost) in the last 39 days. "

The actual numbers relating to the above comparison are 45 000 km2 and 450 km2.

[Ninthace]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

Sorry my unintentional slip….back to the war

The pontoon bridge being built

https://twitter.com/OsintTv/status/1562715132110573569

Allegedly, could be any boat, anywhere.

[NutLoose]

You can see the pontoon bridge being built here

Twitter

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/warmatters/statu...esHqFhGRBbOoFA

Today at about 5 am there were once again strikes on Antonovsky bridge area. A fire started as a result on southern bank.

Video showing Ru continuing to build a barge bridge. As well as a video which, unfortunately, shows movement of Ru trucks on bridge today at 6 am. (Already after the morning strikes on the bridge).

Video by Kherson journalist - Konstantin Ryzhenko.

[NutLoose]

Hahahahahahaa Classic

Twitter

[uxb99]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

Hahahahahahaa Classic

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/...29072449232896

He should have used the classic Red Devils quote;
"I'm sorry but we can't accept your surrender, we just haven't the space"
Well, it happened in the film.

[fdr]

Originally Posted by etudiant

Mearsheimer uses 'offensive realism' as the description of international behavior, because there is no recourse to a central authority, prudent leaders try to ensure that the proximate states prefer to deal with you peacefully. Yet the post Maidan government moved ahead with an anti Russian campaign even though about 25% of their people were primarily Russian speaking. Neighboring with Russia, that was not a prudent initiative.. I accept that as leaders of a sovereign nation, the actions by Kiev were legal, but considering there was no consent by the Russian minority to those actions, their revolt also seems legitimate to me. . Consequently I do not see the Kiev leadership as heroes, but rather as the irresponsible instigators of this conflagration, much as the Serbian leadership helped set off WW1. Mearsheimer writes that there is no plausible path for diplomacy currently visible, suggesting that this war will become considerably worse. His judgement has been proven correct thus far.

Golly.

Whatever you are smoking, don't get caught by the po-po's, they tend to shoot first and then yell stop....

Originally Posted by etudiant

Mearsheimer uses 'offensive realism' as the description of international behavior, because there is no recourse to a central authority, prudent leaders try to ensure that the proximate states prefer to deal with you peacefully.

Mearsheimer... hmmm, Russia had Dugin and Dugina... the USA has a guy called.... People can get out of touch with reality when they stop looking at the facts and rely on status to make proclamations. Your mate Putin, our mate Trump, the facts remain facts, and much that you have put forth is inconsistent with the facts....

Originally Posted by etudiant

Yet the post Maidan government moved ahead with an anti Russian campaign even though about 25% of their people were primarily Russian speaking. Neighboring with Russia, that was not a prudent initiative..

What anti-Russian campaign???? Russia was and remains a criminal enterprise that exists due to the self-interest and indifference and ignorance of the majority of the population. I would think that many of the people that Ukraine would have considered to be friends, are dead, through assassination, poisoning, accidentally drowning in their toilet bowl, falling out of a fixed pane window, and generally having the misfortune to have a moral character that rails at the kleptocracy that has thrived in Russia. You call that anti-Russian, I would think that is anti-Putin. Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union IIRC.... pretty sure that was the way things went, I'm sure I read that somewhere.... Shortly after joining into the party that was the USSR, Ukraine lost 6 million of their population through the brutality of the USSR directed to Ukraine, and to other non-Rus states. Your Russia has a propensity for murder. You expect sympathy for the losses incurred by the gross negligence of Stalin with the purge (read: murder) of the Military leaders shortly before the start of the Great Patriotic War, that arose from Molotov getting into bed with another murderous bedfellow. [point of order: Molotov had attempted to make a pact the week before with the UK and France, and were rebuffed, which seems to be a lost opportunity for some 85 Million lost souls as a consequence of Molotov having a layover in Germany with his mate Ribbentrop. Didn't work out well for Poland... That was on Russia. Russia's rebuff by the UK and France would have been reasonable had the Russians been suggesting carving up Poland with the UK and France. Friends don't let friends drive drunk... etc....]. Now on 20 Feb 2014, Russia invaded various parts of a sovereign nation, that Russia had given undertakings to remain out of the internal politics of (yeah the same country that had a Putin puppet in power... and to respect the inviolate nature of their borders, that existed WEF 8 DEC 1991. Fat chance that Russia keeps it's word, they lie about everything. Is that an unreasonable observation? How many countries that Russia had treaties with did they attack, invade, and interfere with from 8 DEC 1991 on to.... pick a date... for the first 6 months? for the first 10 years, for the first 20 years? More than half of the states that Russia made pledges to honor and respect, to love and to etc... were attacked by Russia. With Russia as a friend, watch your back. Your country has set a new standard for being deceitful and untrustworthy. Yet, some outside of Russia wish that the voice of reason within gets an opportunity to be heard again, there have been many that stood up to object, and most of those are dead. Those that trusted Putin, also many are dead. The conscript that joins the army of Putin, ends up a number, #200. Dead, end of story, lights out.... game over, thanks for playing. Here, have a Lada, the pinnacle of Russian design as a sign of our caring nature for murdering our neighbors and putting your son into a self-imolating bit of technology. Good news is, the families don't have to pay for cremation, their sons can be airmailed back in an urn... those that have any remains remaining... The others of Russia that have been hoodwinked by the criminal crowd to be part of the charade that is the might of Russia, get to have a lifetime of special parking, lots of blue paint needed for the outer oblasts who have been the target of conscription, as service is apparently pretty darn selective in what was once a society of equals. Are you objecting to Ukraine defending itself against the efforts of Russia to invade from 2014 though to now? Do you expect anyone in Ukraine, including the Russian speaker, who have been met by murder and torture and rape and plunder by their saviors, one of the most ill-disciplined and poorly led armies of modern times? Ukraine has given Russia tolerance while Russia has indiscriminately fired weapons into civilian centers, deliberately, while Russia has messed up 2 NPPs so far... Just as well I'm not their leader, I don;t have the restraint and fortitude that they have shown to their murderous neighbor, the klepto-psycho kingdom of a failing state.

Originally Posted by etudiant

I accept that as leaders of a sovereign nation, the actions by Kiev were legal, but considering there was no consent by the Russian minority to those actions, their revolt also seems legitimate to me. .

The Russian minority were not being disadvantaged, they were not being discriminated against. They can always go home to Russia if they so wish, in fact, how about Russia gives the Ukrainians that were deported from Ukraine to Siberia and to the Gulags, starved and murdered, how about you swap them for your Russians, the ones that were forced to take Russian passports in order to keep their livelihoods. How is it that Russia spends most of its time actually pointing guns inward to control its own population, yet talks about it's greatness and the divine destiny that it apparently has, shades of Dugin, less so now of his daughter...

the revolt was initiated and forced by the GRU, read your own history, LGM... Not by anti Russian sentiment, but by 5th column action of a state that just couldn't help itself... there are parables that come to mind on that score, the scorpion and the frog being up there. Scorpions are more trustworthy.

Originally Posted by etudiant

Consequently I do not see the Kiev leadership as heroes, but rather as the irresponsible instigators of this conflagration, much as the Serbian leadership helped set off WW1.

What a load of manure you spread, your garden should be thriving, if it has to listen to that nonsense all day long. You make a statement of opinion on biased statements of pseudo fact, that have no grounding in historical events. Dear friend, Russia started the latest deal in 2014, about the 12th interference with a former USSR state that they had reneged on their word, then you consider that the defence of Ukraine, a sovereign state is grounds to be deemed an irresponsible instigator. You are victimizing the victim, an apparent Russian pass time, which is one of the reasons the rest of the world is quietly happy to watch Russia bog down in it's own slime; expecting sympathy from any other observer that isn't as biased as you is likely to be unproductive. Give examples of what you whinge about, rather than your diatribe against a victimized state.

FACT: Russia signed the treaty to respect all of the former USSR states, and has reneged on over 50% of those states, being the aggressor nation.
FACT: Russia invaded Ukraine, in 2014
FACT: Russia illegally occupied and undertook an illegal and unrecognized annexation of a neighboring nation.
FACT: Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022
FACT: Russia was militarily defeated in the field for the first 30 days, due in large part to the hubris of Russia's leaders, and not in small part by the poisonous leadership style of the Kremlin that has placed the dear leader into an isolation bubble, as the messenger tends to get dead.
FACT: Russia's economy may seem bad now, wait 6 months. The Yale University Management analysis of Russia is that the economy is in a catastrophic collapse process. Your oil revenue is collapsing, and then you might have to work for a living. There is not much likelihood of investment from the west, or from anyone else that wishes to avoid secondary sanctions. The prospect of the foreign military sales surviving the performance of the Russian weapons demonstrated to international voyeurs of carnage is a little less likely than the chance that a T-72 turret will in fact repeat the first sputnik trajectory and enter orbit. (aerospace content, my bad)

Originally Posted by etudiant

Mearsheimer writes that there is no plausible path for diplomacy currently visible, suggesting that this war will become considerably worse. His judgement has been proven correct thus far.

I don't agree with much that John espouses, I think that the view on offensive realism is self-serving to dictators and others that have no moral backbone. I do however agree that the path for diplomacy is very tortuous and uncertain, and here's why...

1. Russia cannot be trusted. Russia attacks and invades, and interferes with everyone that they can.
2. Russia conducts criminal actions on other sovereign lands routinely.
3. Russia has never kept it's word.
4. Russia has suppressed dissent to such an extent, that the criminal operation that is the Kremlin maintains power, it is a cartel in every sense of the word.
5. Russia is currently losing on the field, it has shown that it has minimal competency in strategy or tactics, it relies on terrorizing the population by war crimes, and yet it assumes they will be trusted?? Einstein made an observation on similar insanity.
6. Russia does not have the logistic tail to feed even an enfeebled force in the field. Ukraine's "offensive realism" moment is coming, and they will be able to interdict Russia's ability to maintain anything in the field above a chicken run in the near future.
7. Russia's tanks, APCs & BMP's suck, biggly. They are great for tik-tok memes, but they are not so good for the crews inside them. The good news is, most of those crew are not going to need soviet era prosthetics, or special Lada mods to be able to drive without limbs.
8. the inhabitants of Luhansk, Donetsk, and the ring-ins from Crimea that want to be Russian so badly should consider a change of venue to Russia. Why not? If they like it so much, then just go. Please consider swapping them for the Ukrainian and Tartar-Crimean diaspora, recalling that mass deportation is a crime against humanity.
9. Russia maintains a disregard for human rights, they have no place in the free world, in fact, their contempt that is being voiced for free nations at present is sufficient justification to start sending those that feel that way to an environment where they are more comfortable, the Russia that we have all come to see.
10. Ukraine has the capability to hold Russia in the vise that is the east of Ukraine now, while bleeding out the Russian army. At some point, the states that have been squeezed dry of their sons on this folly will start doing the maths, and we may see the collapse of the Russian Federation, you may end up with a nation that fits the corridor from Moscow to St Petersburg, although, St Petes may start looking longingly at the uplifting leadership of Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, and wonder why they bother dealing with the boorish team in the Kremlin any longer.
11. To be a member of a civilized world, it is desirable to be civilized. Russia has shown an utter disregard for ethical behavior.
12. My maths suggests that, ceteris paribus, Russia is on a steep learning curve to how disagreeable their actions can be to their own citizens. Winter is coming, and the chance that Putin is going to hand over his own cold weather jacket to the 19 Y/Os in the field is remote. Ukraine is getting stronger every day, Russia descends further down the hole that Putin dug.
13. Putin has no reverse gear, he can only sack, murder and otherwise alienate those around him. His ego does not permit a reassessment of his folly.
14. How many people pack up to live in Russia? I mean, seriously, if Russia is so damn good, a veritable garden of Eden, then why are you in the USA, and why is the evacuation of educated Russians a national pastime? Other than Edward Snowden, who in their right mind actually wants to be a citizen of the Russian Federation, if they have a choice? Around 1/3 to nearly a 1/2 million Russians every year migrate to the USA.... who is going to turn off the lights? last year, 7100 Indians elected to go and live in USSR... whoops, Russia. 6500 Chinese 5400 Vietnamese.... UK... 0, French, 0, german, 0, USA, 0.... the nett migration of India, China and vietnam was actually lower yet, 5000, 4200, 3402. How many Chinese, Indians and Vietnamese are likely to bother going to a country that is so lacking honor as Russia? Fun fact, 316,755 Russians migrated to UKRAINE in the first 3 months of 2022. That is, even while being bombed and rocketed by Russia, many Russians prefer Ukraine to Russia.

Opinions, like piles, are ubiquitous. You are most welcome to make your unsupported diatribe that acts to victimize the victim, after all, the rest of us have grown to expect that from your dysfunctional country. There are good, honest, rational-thinking Russians, I've flown with many of them, and they hate what Russia has become. It is their home, and they are embarrassed by it. You elect to live in a civilized country, yet act as though you are the victim. The real victims are lying dead on the roadside, for the simple reason that your Dear Leader doesn't have the moral fortitude to apologize for his incompetent, rash, and ill-considered invasion of a friendly country.

FACT: Ukraine didn't invade Russia.

Your opinions presented as fact are consistent with the lack of ethical balance that seems to be prevalent in the criminal state of Russia. I take no pleasure in the harm that befalls the Russian conscripts that die needlessly in a foreign land as an aggressor, for a reason that they cannot fathom. However, I would rather they go home by train, plane or automobile and make their dissatisfaction known in their own land, against their government, and those like you that apparently support a morally bankrupt and fiscally special needs country, however, should they stay, I fully support the right for Ukraine to defend itself against your aggressor state, and they can return as #300 or #200 as Mars may deem fit.

Ukraine isn't leaving, Russia needs to leave, and on that point, we are back to the starting comment, that I don't see a negotiated peace, i wouldn't take the word of Russian WRT maintaining peace, your paranoia seems to contraindicate that as being honored.

Russia; murderous one day, genocidal the next.

[Beamr]

Rossiskaja Gazeta: Putin signed a decree to increase the RuAF staff by 137000 to 1,15 million people.
Coming to effect Jan 1st 2023. To put this into context: They are intending to increase the amount of their armed forces personnel by 14% in four months. Quite a leap considering they haven't been able to replace the approx 80-100k KIA/WIA/MIA in Ukraine, meaning they are already minus 8-10%.

https://www.gazeta.ru/army/news/2022...18408992.shtml

[ORAC]

Good luck with that.

Still no mobilisation so all have to be volunteers - and they’re already scraping the barrel taking men over 50.

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-raise.../31867388.html

No one left to train them - they’re already being thrown into combat in Ukraine after 5 days.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russ...-report-2022-7

No equipment for them - being sent with basic uniform and no weapons as cannon fodder to the front - where if they’re lucky they’ll be handed body armour stripped from the dead, otherwise having to buy their own - probably also stripped from the dead and resold by their own officers.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/...o-fight-a77751

[NutLoose]

Originally Posted by Beamr

Rossiskaja Gazeta: Putin signed a decree to increase the RuAF staff by 137000 to 1,15 million people.
Coming to effect Jan 1st 2023. To put this into context: They are intending to increase the amount of their armed forces personnel by 14% in four months. Quite a leap considering they haven't been able to replace the approx 80-100k KIA/WIA/MIA in Ukraine, meaning they are already minus 8-10%.

https://www.gazeta.ru/army/news/2022...18408992.shtml

Paper soldiers and their wages pocketed by others in the food chain..

[Usertim]

etudiant
Unfortunately your posts have become more unhinged as time goes by. Initially I somewhat listened to and respected your opinions as a disagreeable but argued position, recently your posts lack any backup or evidence and have become just opinions.
Many posters here take the time to provide documentary evidence of what happened and when in the whole sad chronology, these posts will always be taken more seriously than rhetoric and repeated russian state propaganda.
It would be good if you could do the same and cite sources for some of your more wild ideas.

I was going to write a long reply but fdr did it much better. But I think you will find if the budapest memorandum had been honoured (or never existed) there would have been no need for any Minsk agreements; that russia annexed crimea before any donbass agitations; and that Mariupol was taken by 'rebel forces' in the initial stages back then, and subsequently liberated. I did not see anyone in Mariupol throwing down their weapons and welcoming the russians back this year did you? Sloviansk is another city that was at one stage occupied and liberated, do you see any welcome signs there for russian forces? At the end of the day they can see occupied Donbass and Crimea became just vassal states of RF feeding the klepto hunger at the centre of power.

Disclaimer: I have been providing at least socks and cigarettes to UaF forces since 2014, these days my aid is more practical.

[jolihokistix]

One gun to five recruits?

Is Putin attempting to recreate their WW2 Phyrric victory against the nasties at Stalingrad?

[NutLoose]

Originally Posted by Video Mixdown

Clutching past events like a security blanket won't help you now. When Russia rolled the iron dice they rendered any previous treaties/agreements null and void, along with any control over the outcome.

Nope, am just saying that 25% of the Ukrainian people revolted against the governments new laws and the government sent in the army to crush them, rather than address their grievance.

But that had nothing to do with Russia, it is in another Sovereign state. If those Russians living in that area disagreed with the state of affairs, they could have moved back to their not so glorious Motherland.

[Beamr]

AFP: Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant disconnected from power grid

I hope the russkies have capable people around that can handle it now without the used fuel overheating or reactors melting down. Otherwise... sheeeeet

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1562795029948575750

Twitter

[FUMR]

Is Putin wanting to increase his forces by 137000 personnel perhaps indirectly indicate the loss of roughly the same number in the past six months?