Originally Posted by
Beamr
- today Lukashenka ordered Belarus army to strengthen the defense of Belarus and prepare for wartime norms. (skip a bit)
This all smells like escalation.
Yes, it does, but I wonder at how effective Mr
Lukashenka will be.
Lukashenka has been blackmailed to join the war within the "state union" and he has no option as he knows how Russia left Armenia on its own and he can"t stay on power without Putins support.
He is between a rock and a hard place. I get the feeling from what little I read on his situation that he hasn't the same amount of support in Belarus that Putin has in Russia. If he tells the troops "go" he may get "get stuffed" for an answer. Or not. And given Belarus' position, a quick strike with air and ground assets could seriously set UKR back. I expect that EW and SIGINT assets are keeping a very sharp eye on Belarus.
And this delay would be the opportunity for Ukraine to make a breakthrough, but it would require the West to disregard the NBC threats and make a big boost on arms deliveries to Ukraine: MBTs, long range missiles, even thise A10's or vipers if Ukraine has some pilots as rumoured, anything and everything they need. Make the Z-forces current forces annihilate so that some 100k new troops won't make a difference.
Not sure how quickly they could get up to speed on Warthogs or Vipers.
Originally Posted by
dead_pan
Personally I cannot see any scenario where Putin would use a tactical nuke, even if Crimea was seriously under threat.
I sincerely hope that you are right.
The mood music at last weeks meeting in Kazakhstan strongly suggests his "allies" are getting heartily fed up with the whole enterprise and wish him to conclude something quickly.
Yeah, I think he just realized that going "all in" on Ukraine has left him exposed. And the Armenians are feeling it already.