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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 9th Nov 2022, 11:30
  #11421 (permalink)  
 
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What I cannot understand is you keep reading Russia has abandoned Kherson and the region, so who the heck are the Ukrainians
fighting?

Not all are happy..


Last edited by NutLoose; 9th Nov 2022 at 11:54.
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Old 9th Nov 2022, 11:58
  #11422 (permalink)  
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Kherson city has been abandoned and looted by the Russian command and civil administration. Reportedly they’ve stuffed it full of conscripts in civil clothes with light weapons to make it a street by street hand-to-hand fight.

Also reportedly, the UAF won’t oblige and will will simply sit outside and starve them out whilst keeping the river crossings closed. Without logistic support the remaining BTGs are collapsing and, without a means of evacuation, their armour should fall into UKR hands.

They’ve set up 3 defensive lines on the left bank and, supposedly, massed artillery to hit the UKR forces as they advance on the right bank. But with longer range artillery the UKR forces can batter them instead - and outflank them from the north and take them from the rear pinning them against the river - again.

Meanwhile……

Russian lines collapsing. That one is sure. Question is now only how (dis-)organized this is going to happen.

Northern Kherson is now one big shooting gallery for the Ukrainian artillery.
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Old 9th Nov 2022, 12:00
  #11423 (permalink)  
 
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Ouch... Thats got to hurt.

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Old 9th Nov 2022, 13:25
  #11424 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Kherson city has been abandoned and looted by the Russian command and civil administration. Reportedly they’ve stuffed it full of conscripts in civil clothes with light weapons to make it a street by street hand-to-hand fight.
Also reportedly, the UAF won’t oblige and will will simply sit outside and starve them out whilst keeping the river crossings closed. Without logistic support the remaining BTGs are collapsing and, without a means of evacuation, their armour should fall into UKR hands.
They’ve set up 3 defensive lines on the left bank and, supposedly, massed artillery to hit the UKR forces as they advance on the right bank. But with longer range artillery the UKR forces can batter them instead - and outflank them from the north and take them from the rear pinning them against the river - again.
Meanwhile……
Russian lines collapsing. That one is sure. Question is now only how (dis-)organized this is going to happen.
Northern Kherson is now one big shooting gallery for the Ukrainian artillery.
That is an interesting state of affairs. Would have been a fair plan, so surprised it is the RuZZians that came up with it. However, it is only good if the Ukrainians had fallen for it, which has not been the case so far. Instead, the positioning of the RuZZian tubes is open for a good old SSAR and satellite look, and some IR scanning, to get a picture of where to return the favour from the extended range that Ukraine now has. Every tube in the swamplands is worthy of some ISR, and then some harassment, they have been getting their rest in long enough. It would have worked if the roles were reversed, Ukraine is just a smarter Special Kherson kind of Cat. All of the left bank tubes will be sitting invitingly within 152mm range of the burbs of Kherson, which is going to be in range mainly of 155mm, and is just deeply inside the M270 ranges for all of their existing munitions.

In other words.... have a look at the ranges... Time for some hi res sat images IR/VIS/SSAR...


The road from Hladkicka to Radens'k and around 5km either side would seem to be worthy of a really good survey. It's nicely in the background, with laterals to disperse, and outside of the flood zone and swamp... gotta be a tempting place to have plonked the tubes amongst the myriad of plastic sheet horticulture enclosures.

Separately, the term "500's" has come out, may have been before, that seems to cover desertions, probably is going to be a number that Lada avoids, in the Lada 200 series... The "500's" will be the ones that get fragged by their own side, unless they have long johns to put on the barrels.








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Old 9th Nov 2022, 15:07
  #11425 (permalink)  
 
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I don't know if this is verified.. If so, I can forsee a total collapse of the Army as it retreats in confusion with massive losses, it seems odd for the Russians to have dropped all the bridges before they get across!

Russian High Command has issued a general retreat to all surviving Russian forces at the Western bank of the Dnipro River. Around 40,000 Russian troops are now officially running.

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Old 9th Nov 2022, 15:17
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Russia admitting defeat in Kherson, I wonder where he intends to shift some of the troops, Donbas region?

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Old 9th Nov 2022, 15:29
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Russia’s MiG-31 Crews Are Shooting At Ukrainian Pilots From A Hundred Miles Away—And The Ukrainians Can’t Shoot Back (msn.com)

It’s no secret the Russian air force has failed to achieve air superiority in the sky over Ukraine.Hamstrung by inflexible procedures, desperately short of precision weaponry and battered by stiff Ukrainian air defenses, the Russian Vozdushno-kosmicheskiye sily, or VKS, at best is holding its own over Ukraine, despite a 10-to-1 numerical advantage in fighters and attack jets compared with the Ukrainian air force.

But that doesn’t mean the Russians are doing everything wrong. The three regiments flying the VKS’s best interceptor—the twin-engine, two-seat Mikoyan MiG-31BM—are winning where most of the rest of the air force is losing.

MiG-31 crews, flying high-altitude defensive patrols along the ever-shifting front lines and firing powerful Vympel R-37M air-to-air missiles, in recent weeks apparently have shot down several Ukrainian jets. The Ukrainians’ own fighters and missiles lack the speed, range and altitude performance to fight back effectively.

The VKS’s defensive patrols “have proven highly effective against Ukrainian attack aircraft and fighters, with the MiG-31BM and R-37M long-range air-to-air missile being especially problematic,” Justin Bronk, Nick Reynolds and Jack Watling wrote in a new study for the Royal United Services Institute in London.

The 24-ton MiG-31, which first flew in 1975, is a rare beast. It’s an evolution of the classic, Cold War-vintage Mikoyan MiG-25, a plane the Russians designed specifically to intercept supersonic U.S. Air Force bombers on nuclear attack runs. Today around 90 modernized MiG-31BMs equip three regiments, at least one of which has deployed jets to Belbek air base in Russian-occupied Crimea for sorties over Ukraine.



The MiG-31 flies higher, faster and farther than the Ukrainian air force’s best Sukhoi Su-27 interceptors. The heavyweight fighter can fly as high as 60,000 feet out to 450 miles and dash at Mach 2.5 for short periods.

From their lofty perch, MiG-31 crews can search for targets with the jet’s Zaslon radar and fire a single, underbelly R-37M at targets as far as 200 miles away, although the missile works best at ranges no farther than 80 miles. A Ukrainian Su-27 by contrast can fire a Vympel R-27 missile no farther than 50 miles.

When the Ukrainian army launched twin counteroffensives in the east and south starting in late August, the VKS maintained around-the-clock patrols in eight zones over Ukraine, each patrol involving a pair of MiG-31s or a pair of Sukhoi Su-35s.

The patrols
for Ukrainian attack planes—Sukhoi Su-25s, https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/11/01/the-unkillable-bomber-regiment-ukraine-is-restoring-more-old-su-24s-than-russia-can-shoot-down/ and Mikoyan MiG-29s—supporting the counteroffensives. Outside analysts https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-aircraft-losses-during-2022.html Ukraine has lost four MiG-29s, six Su-25s and
as well as one Su-27 since the counteroffensives kicked off in late August.

It’s unclear how many of those kills the MiG-31 crews can claim. Probably several. “The VKS has been firing up to six R-37Ms per day during October,” Bronk, Reynolds and Watling wrote, “and the extremely high speed of the weapon, coupled with very long effective range and a seeker designed for engaging low-altitude targets, makes it particularly difficult to evade.”

The VKS has written off one MiG-31 in a non-combat accident in Crimea. Other than that, the interceptor crews are unscathed in the current war. Shooting at Ukrainians who can’t shoot back.

The closest Ukrainian forces have come to landing a blow on the MiG-31 force was their one-time bombardment of Belbek air base back in October. The apparent rocket strike on the base destroyed or damaged several Russian planes, but none of them were MiG-31s.
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Old 9th Nov 2022, 15:37
  #11428 (permalink)  
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These are the Identified Russian left bank defence lines I was referencing…



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Old 9th Nov 2022, 15:46
  #11429 (permalink)  
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Wagner Grey Zone not happy…

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Old 9th Nov 2022, 15:50
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The second and third lines of defense are presumably there to stop the first line of defense retreating...
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Old 9th Nov 2022, 16:02
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Originally Posted by pasta
The second and third lines of defense are presumably there to stop the first line of defense retreating...
From old memory, a withdrawal under fire is considered a very difficult maneuver to pull off, and that's with a disciplined and well trained unit. (And even tougher if you are being shot at from your own side during the withdrawal! )
Not sure if this is wishful thinking, as I am not sure how much momentum UKR can maintain at the moment.
Interesting picture illustrating the challenge of "how do you get across the various waterways if the bridges are blown?"
Here's a situation where having a lot of drones and UAVs up in the air could make the sensor-to-shooter link pretty tight, if UKR wants to cause some damage as various waterways get crossed.
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Old 9th Nov 2022, 16:21
  #11432 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ORAC
These are the Identified Russian left bank defence lines I was referencing…



The 3rd line is reportedly where the artillery is focused by the Russians, which is capable of making a mess in Kherson out to the western ring road. That would make any spotters or drones in the city pretty troublesome. Pushing the Russian arty back towards Crimea would be a nice move, and that will take a lot of ISR coverage to be effective. There is the range, the targeting is out aways. Without removal fo the arty, the city will be difficult to enter safely. Hope there is a stack of good surveillance going on.

With the change of leadership in the field recently, it is possible that a reality check did occur, and the point got through to upper management as to the disaster they are undertaking. The M-14 road will become untenable pretty quickly if the invaders vacate the west/right bank, the E-105 bridges into Crimea has been beaten up previously, if they also close, Crimea becomes pretty untenable in all respects, the Kerch bridge is getting ready for another bad day. (I still question that the attack was done by the Ukrainians, I favour an exuberant own goal, although there have not been many disappearing FSB guys in the last month). The whole land bridge from the NE to the SW along the Sea of Azov is at risk of being untenable to do resupply in the near future.

Between petulantly shooting his own men in the front for being repulsed by Ukraine, and holding the federation together by withdrawal, it would seem that a reasonable value proposition is bugging out and returning to Russia politely, with whatever forces can be retained. There is a point in time where the remaining force vs the forces required to maintain the federation will intersect, and that seems to be coming up fast. To that end, a negotiated departure from Ukraine where the deportees are returned, and those that have committed war crimes are banned internationally from travel, might start to be attractive to both sides. The cost to Ukraine is catastrophic, but they will recover with the assistance of the global community, and should be a vibrant EU member. The effect of going into recovery of Ukraine is positive to all economies, apart from being morally supportable. A Marshall Plan for Ukraine is a bargain for what they have accomplished. As Russia never keeps its word, they do need a full security guarantee if they let Russia leave without being mauled. Of all of the items that were on the table, most of them are in the end will not affect Ukraines future, whereas losing more people to make a point will just add more pain. Getting Russia to leave has primacy over all matters, the rest while important in their own right are noise to achieving the signal aim, Russia, go home. Vlad may hang in there until the run off happens in Georgia, hoping that a GOP Senate will mess with support for Ukraine. Perhaps it would, but there is an underlying signal that the US still supports Ukraine more than it supports a Democratic ticket back home. Putin may not make it that long though, he seems to be starting to have a growing tiff with Prigozhin, might be interesting to see who ventilates who first there, "lie down with fleas, you get dogs".

There is some neat SSAR stuff out there, out of Canada and the USA, that fits on pretty small packages, would be nice on some old, tired, RQ/MQ-1's, to give some incentive for Russia to return the guns to Primorski Krai and other desirable parking lots.
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Old 9th Nov 2022, 16:53
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Stremousov is no more (see below from the Guardian). Seems to be an amazing coincidence, must be more to it. Good riddance anyway.

A few hours after Kirill Stremousov, the Russian-appointed deputy head of the Kherson region, announced that Ukrainian forces had gained a foothold on the northern edge of Snihurivka amid heavy fighting, a town that lies on a highway 31km north of Kherson city, Stremousov himself was reported by Russian media to have died in unclear circumstances.According to local media reports, the crash happened near Henichesk, on the Sea of Azov, the seaside town used as the headquarters of the Russian occupation administration since it fled Kherson.


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Old 9th Nov 2022, 17:12
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
From old memory, a withdrawal under fire is considered a very difficult maneuver to pull off, and that's with a disciplined and well trained unit. (And even tougher if you are being shot at from your own side during the withdrawal! )
Not sure if this is wishful thinking, as I am not sure how much momentum UKR can maintain at the moment.
Interesting picture illustrating the challenge of "how do you get across the various waterways if the bridges are blown?"
Here's a situation where having a lot of drones and UAVs up in the air could make the sensor-to-shooter link pretty tight, if UKR wants to cause some damage as various waterways get crossed.
Unless it’s a big bluff, it seems barking mad to announce your withdrawal before you actually do it. A lot of bridges were just blown by Russia.
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Old 9th Nov 2022, 17:14
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Originally Posted by n5296s
Stremousov is no more (see below from the Guardian). Seems to be an amazing coincidence, must be more to it. Good riddance anyway.

A few hours after Kirill Stremousov, the Russian-appointed deputy head of the Kherson region, announced that Ukrainian forces had gained a foothold on the northern edge of Snihurivka amid heavy fighting, a town that lies on a highway 31km north of Kherson city, Stremousov himself was reported by Russian media to have died in unclear circumstances.According to local media reports, the crash happened near Henichesk, on the Sea of Azov, the seaside town used as the headquarters of the Russian occupation administration since it fled Kherson.
Did you see his vehicle, the chassis was separate from the body.

pictures

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Old 9th Nov 2022, 17:15
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Unless it’s a big bluff, it seems barking mad to announce your withdrawal before you actually do it. A lot of bridges were just blown by Russia.
Dunno about anyone else, but I smell a rat. It's almost like a come-on. I'm sure the intelligence folks are all over it though!
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Old 9th Nov 2022, 17:34
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Originally Posted by Jobza Guddun
Dunno about anyone else, but I smell a rat. It's almost like a come-on. I'm sure the intelligence folks are all over it though!
Before attempting to retake the sad, wrecked, corpse laden and looted city, UKR will, I have no doubt, ask itself:

Is there tactical advantage taking it, risking huge losses and creating a salient
Is there strategic advantage
or do we bypass it for now, and pursue easier schwerpunkte?
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Old 9th Nov 2022, 17:54
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Originally Posted by havoc
Russia’s MiG-31 Crews Are Shooting At Ukrainian Pilots From A Hundred Miles Away—And The Ukrainians Can’t Shoot Back (msn.com)

It’s no secret the Russian air force has failed to achieve air superiority in the sky over Ukraine.Hamstrung by inflexible procedures, desperately short of precision weaponry and battered by stiff Ukrainian air defenses, the Russian Vozdushno-kosmicheskiye sily, or VKS, at best is holding its own over Ukraine, despite a 10-to-1 numerical advantage in fighters and attack jets compared with the Ukrainian air force.

But that doesn’t mean the Russians are doing everything wrong. The three regiments flying the VKS’s best interceptor—the twin-engine, two-seat Mikoyan MiG-31BM—are winning where most of the rest of the air force is losing.
Maybe there is some answer to this threat. What if "biolabs" could hatch few squadrons of F-15s?
I just wonder what is Ministry of Defence of Ukraine trying to say with this tweet:

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Old 9th Nov 2022, 18:40
  #11439 (permalink)  
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Ramzan Kadyrov congratulates Surovikin on the defeat in Kherson, saying the withdrawal was a wise decision.
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Old 9th Nov 2022, 18:47
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Russian media posted some photos from the crash site where Russian-appointed deputy head of Kherson region Stremousov allegedly died today


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