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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 18th Sep 2022, 06:30
  #9341 (permalink)  
 
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They do not hang around after liberation.

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Old 18th Sep 2022, 08:28
  #9342 (permalink)  
 
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For those who claim Germany isn't helping Ukraine. These guys probably disagree.


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Old 18th Sep 2022, 08:59
  #9343 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Beamr
For those who claim Germany isn't helping Ukraine. These guys probably disagree.

https://twitter.com/ItsBorys/status/1571151389707079685
I do wonder if there have been any Ukrainian injured moved to the UK for treatment in specialist hospitals like Selly Oak with their specialist blast and trauma teams. The experience is there.
Or wondering out loud if teams are in Europe closer to the boarder to assist?
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Old 18th Sep 2022, 10:39
  #9344 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Beamr
For those who claim Germany isn't helping Ukraine. These guys probably disagree.
They were rightly criticised early on, but they are now being wrongly criticised, the issue is their flip flopping around. They should straight up say they are doing medical flights and treating Ukrainian army in german hospitals, they xx million refugees currently living in germany and being supported by the german government

I think now they are number 3 of the nato countries behind US and UK. I think the big issue is that they have so been screwing their military that they just dont have anything worth giving ultimately so they have had to give the less sexy stuff like 100 tank transporters. They aren't sexy but they are pretty big deal by being able to move damaged/captured armor to rear areas or whole other countries to be repaired or stripped of parts to keep other tanks going
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Old 18th Sep 2022, 11:03
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This gives a pretty good idea of the scale of losses of Russia in Kharkov area. Theve lost the equivalent of a fully equipped mechanized brigade. And on MBT's two brigades. Eg one of the most prestigious mech inf brigades, the 200th, only had 41 MBT's. And these losses in just one week. And on top of it Ukrainians captured most of it! Plus the ammo.


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Old 18th Sep 2022, 11:07
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For those who claim Germany isn't helping Ukraine. These guys probably disagree.
All those ambulances in one place - looks like the queue outside a UK A&E Dept
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Old 18th Sep 2022, 12:54
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Originally Posted by Beamr
This gives a pretty good idea of the scale of losses of Russia in Kharkov area. Theve lost the equivalent of a fully equipped mechanized brigade. And on MBT's two brigades. Eg one of the most prestigious mech inf brigades, the 200th, only had 41 MBT's. And these losses in just one week. And on top of it Ukrainians captured most of it! Plus the ammo.

https://twitter.com/WarSpotting/stat...16692612669441
To leave behind Arty and SPG's smacks of overran and routed.
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Old 18th Sep 2022, 13:15
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Originally Posted by uxb99
To leave behind Arty and SPG's smacks of overran and routed.
Spot on, those MRLS and artillery were'nt (or shouldnt have been) in the front line but in depth, so the fact that Ukraine got those intact speaks volumes of the mayhem amongst the Z-force.

In a week they lost more MBT's than Australia, Canada or Hungary has and 2/3 of what UK has.
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Old 18th Sep 2022, 14:17
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Originally Posted by Beamr
This gives a pretty good idea of the scale of losses of Russia in Kharkov area. Theve lost the equivalent of a fully equipped mechanized brigade. And on MBT's two brigades. Eg one of the most prestigious mech inf brigades, the 200th, only had 41 MBT's. And these losses in just one week. And on top of it Ukrainians captured most of it! Plus the ammo.

https://twitter.com/WarSpotting/stat...16692612669441
That must make the Russians a bigger supplier of military equipment to the Ukraine than Germany
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Old 18th Sep 2022, 14:49
  #9350 (permalink)  

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Thanks for the link, Beamer. Just shows what happens behind the scenes. Good for Germany.
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Old 18th Sep 2022, 16:14
  #9351 (permalink)  
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1/ @ian_matveev, who's one of the smartest Russian-language commentators on the Ukraine war, has posted a very interesting and detailed thread discussing the reasons for Russia's defeat east of Kharkiv. An English translation, with his permission, follows (LONG thread ahead!). ⬇️..

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...775291392.html
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Old 18th Sep 2022, 16:46
  #9352 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by rattman
They were rightly criticised early on, but they are now being wrongly criticised, the issue is their flip flopping around. They should straight up say they are doing medical flights and treating Ukrainian army in german hospitals, they xx million refugees currently living in germany and being supported by the german government

I think now they are number 3 of the nato countries behind US and UK. I think the big issue is that they have so been screwing their military that they just dont have anything worth giving ultimately so they have had to give the less sexy stuff like 100 tank transporters. They aren't sexy but they are pretty big deal by being able to move damaged/captured armor to rear areas or whole other countries to be repaired or stripped of parts to keep other tanks going
Have to disagree there. Scholz refusal goes way beyond Bundeswehr stocks. KMW and Rheinmetall have stocks of older Leo and Marder that Scholz refuses to release. The same applies to stocks of older Leo that Spain wishes to gift but Scholz says NYET
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Old 18th Sep 2022, 16:52
  #9353 (permalink)  
 
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Nice work by Matveev … hope to see more of the same, if it doesn’t help the Russians too much. “Never prevent the enemy from making mistakes”, or something like that!
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Old 18th Sep 2022, 17:02
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Yes but apart from the poor communication, the fragmented organisation, the woeful motivation, the non existent training, the patchy logistics, the corrupted spares and reserves provisions and the schoolboy tactics, what has Putin done for the feared Russian Army?......With apologies to the Life of Brian
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Old 18th Sep 2022, 17:12
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Originally Posted by [email protected]
Yes but apart from the poor communication, the fragmented organisation, the woeful motivation, the non existent training, the patchy logistics, the corrupted spares and reserves provisions and the schoolboy tactics, what has Putin done for the feared Russian Army?
"Brought peace?"
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Old 18th Sep 2022, 17:19
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Excellent article from Matveev, but I too hope that it doesn't help the Russians. It rather smacks of the BBC helpfully telling the Argentinians that their bombs were not exploding because of wrong fuse settings. The next delivery had correctly fused bombs, and ...
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Old 18th Sep 2022, 18:36
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Originally Posted by Geriaviator
Excellent article from Matveev, but I too hope that it doesn't help the Russians. It rather smacks of the BBC helpfully telling the Argentinians that their bombs were not exploding because of wrong fuse settings. The next delivery had correctly fused bombs, and ...
Many of the failings Matveev proposes are systemic, the kind that take months, years and even decades to correct; they won't be changed overnight.

Analysis from Jack Watling echoing the training and structural issues: https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...orming-ukraine
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Old 18th Sep 2022, 18:44
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To be honest and comfort a bit, all the described issues of the Z-force are not solved overnight. The tools are bad (they can't build 2000 modern tanks, 4000 APCs or a thousand artillery pieces due to multitude of issues and not in the timeframe that would make any difference in years to come), the chain of command would require something that will not happen (taking rosguardia, army, wagner et al under same command, but whose command), they do not have the training (none of them in the aforementioned groups, and those who have it is different training without joint force experience), they don't have the motivation to fight (if the president gets billions as his cut, politbyro take millions, generals get a bit less and so on, what does regular Ivan? Takes his cut as washing machines. Thats his only motivation). The list goes on.

The issues lie so deep in the system itself that it will not be solved by just adjusting the fuse, so to say.
It will require a reform of the entire country, its culture and their thinking. It didn't happen during the 30 years after the Iron Curtain came down, it will not happen by christmas this year either. And definately not under the dictatorship of a Cold war era dinosaur who thinks he's the saviour of Russia and the modern day Peter the Great.

Which reminds of an anecdote I heard the other day:

This is Radio Yerevan, we are ready to answer our listeners questions
Q: Is it true that Vladimir Putin is as great of a leader as Peter the Great was?
A: well, all we can say is that they both successfully brought Russia to 18th century.
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Old 18th Sep 2022, 21:44
  #9359 (permalink)  
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Russia is now entirely defenseless against NATO--by its own choice as it tries to fight in Ukraine. Putin showing how really unconcerned he is about a possible NATO threat--he is happy to leave Russia undefended.
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Old 18th Sep 2022, 22:15
  #9360 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Addlepate
Many of the failings Matveev proposes are systemic, the kind that take months, years and even decades to correct; they won't be changed overnight.

Analysis from Jack Watling echoing the training and structural issues: https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...orming-ukraine

"Many of the failings" "All of the failings".

Russia is the embodiment of systemic corruption. Weeds might grow out of manure, but an effective force of arms, not so much.
The pet d' Putin can get his Wagner terrorists, Ukraine has motivated defenders who know exactly what they are flighting for, like the teacher who visits his class. Russia has shown they lack culture under Putin. They only have stockpiles of war crimes to play with, that further alienates their nation.
Algeria could defend itself from camels with Renault 4's or 2CV's as effectively as the junk arms that Putin has devolved the Russian arms industry to.
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