So, whats going on currently
- four Russian occupied areas are arranging a referendum in a very fast pace, by next tuesday.
- today Russian Duma approved to add war time crimes to criminal code, in essence in times of mobilization eg "voluntary surrender" is punished with years of service in the gulags.
- Putin is said to make a statememt on the referendums in the state TV late tonight
- Russian Kilos pulled away from Crimea, also Kerch bridge protective barges are said to be pulled away. Z-force regrouping in occupied territories.
- Lavrov on his way to UN meeting and I would expect him to emphasize the Russias right to defend its territory
- today Lukashenka ordered Belarus army to strengthen the defense of Belarus and prepare for wartime norms
This all smells like escalation.
I'm now playing a bit with scenarios, hoping I'm wrong on this...
Today Putin announces support to referendums, tomorrow Lavrov states in the UN that any attempt to attack "Russian soil" will justify a war and that ir Russia is threatened it will use NBC if necessary hoping that the rest of the world buys that threat,. By next Tuesday the four areas announce "wish to join Russia" and that is swiftly approved by Putin just like the help request by Penis Dushilin in February, Ukraine disagrees and continues the push to liberate its territories, Putin announces mobilization and declares war due to "attack against mother Rossija". It will only be a part mobilization so that it only affects men of certain age and training, to gather some 100-200000 troops as they can't handle more troops (lack of equipment, trained people, officers etc) and to not make the entire population angry (especially st Pete and Moskva areas).
Lukashenka has been blackmailed to join the war within the "state union" and he has no option as he knows how Russia left Armenia on its own and he can"t stay on power without Putins support.
As Russians already know that the declaration of war opens the gates for attacks anywhere without Ukraine having to consider possibility for further escalation, so as the subs are most easily destroyed in ports those are already pulled into safety.
Problem for Russians is that mobilization takes time. It takes at least months to make any real effect in the front unless they just drive the fresh troops to the border by trains and leave them there, WW2 style, some have the rifles and others have the ammo. And this delay would be the opportunity for Ukraine to make a breakthrough, but it would require the West to disregard the NBC thteats and make a big boost on arms deliveries to Ukraine: MBTs, long range missiles, even thise A10's or vipers if Ukraine has some pilots as rumoured, anything and everything they need. Make the Z-forces current forces annihilate so that some 100k new troops won't make a difference.
I hope I'm wrong on this.