Is Ukraine about to have a war?

At time of original post, from adsb.
https://imgur.com/a/RlsCxwR
https://imgur.com/a/RlsCxwR

The Kremlin's mouthpieces blame Ukraine, Estonia and the UK for Daria Dugina's death

. That can be done softly, in a manner like the French did to Japan on car trade back in the day. Considerer how long a single inspector would take to do a comprehensive safety survey A

Purposely? Unwittingly? Under Duress? Mistakenly? On Putin's orders? By some nascent resistance group? Could be any of the above in Russian politics. I think the least likely is Ukraine - why would they bother when their country is full of much more important targets.

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I respect Mearsheimer's expertise and take his comments seriously, because he was outspoken about the disastrous consequences likely to result from the effort to bring Ukraine into the western fold.
He called that exactly, so his current posting deserves attention. Just because it does not make for happy reading is no excuse for brushing it under the rug.
He called that exactly, so his current posting deserves attention. Just because it does not make for happy reading is no excuse for brushing it under the rug.

Purposely? Unwittingly? Under Duress? Mistakenly? On Putin's orders? By some nascent resistance group? Could be any of the above in Russian politics. I think the least likely is Ukraine - why would they bother when their country is full of much more important targets.

Freedom from the Russian threat, Nato membership and economic growth will mean future generations think it was worth the cost.

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For someone that's been through a car explosion and fire, she appears to look remarkably fresh and the grieving father looks relaxed and smiling.

On the other hand, Turkey seems to be doing quite well out of Russian tourists, their national airline being one of the few 'European' ones still flying to Moscow etc. I also suspect there's an angle for Turkey in the grain deal.

I respect Mearsheimer's expertise and take his comments seriously, because he was outspoken about the disastrous consequences likely to result from the effort to bring Ukraine into the western fold.
He called that exactly, so his current posting deserves attention. Just because it does not make for happy reading is no excuse for brushing it under the rug.
He called that exactly, so his current posting deserves attention. Just because it does not make for happy reading is no excuse for brushing it under the rug.
Kissinger changed his mind recently. I wonder if Mearsheimer will too?
I know you've set out your stall as a contrarian but do you honestly believe Ukraine is at fault and weren't free to make their own choices as a sovereign nation?

If it really was a result of infighting within the Russian leadership, then it will be interesting to see whether it is an isolated act or the start of something more serious.

I don't think that that is a likely motive as she has no formal political role (or even a particularly high profile in Russia). The Russian leadership is not homogenous when it comes to the policy on Ukraine and Dugin (if not strictly in a leadership role) was influential among the hardliners/ ideologues. The most likely explanation (in my opinion) is that the assassination targeted the father, and was organised by more liberal/ realist elements within the security services. If it was authorised by Putin, then it seems likely that it may be a prelude to an attempt at de-escalation. I imagine that the hardliners who advised him that a quick war in Ukraine was achievable and desirable may not be that popular right now.
If it really was a result of infighting within the Russian leadership, then it will be interesting to see whether it is an isolated act or the start of something more serious.
If it really was a result of infighting within the Russian leadership, then it will be interesting to see whether it is an isolated act or the start of something more serious.
Back in the 90s people were regularly blown up by car bombs in Moscow etc, often with no clear explanation or beneficiary. The same applies to this attack IMO.
If we're looking for portents, I think it will be noteworthy if Russia let's today celebrations in Ukraine pass without incident (if only as an indication of their ability to do anything significant).

For someone that's been through a car explosion and fire, she appears to look remarkably fresh and the grieving father looks relaxed and smiling.
https://twitter.com/KramarenkoMari3/...83329867931650
https://twitter.com/KramarenkoMari3/...83329867931650
The FSB has a lot of questions to answer.

Not much to be gained from targeting her. Not good for PR - killing young women, no matter their beliefs. I think most likely scenario is that they were after the father, but the operation did not go to plan.

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Indeed.
There is footage out there of her body (apparently) after she was ejected from the vehicle during the blast and, its not pretty. There didn't appear to be enough left intact to allow an open coffin, that's for sure.
Having attended the scene of a fatality on the railway recently (person Vs 120mph passenger train) I can confirm that the body in the footage and what we had to deal with were very similar. IE; closed casket.
There is footage out there of her body (apparently) after she was ejected from the vehicle during the blast and, its not pretty. There didn't appear to be enough left intact to allow an open coffin, that's for sure.
Having attended the scene of a fatality on the railway recently (person Vs 120mph passenger train) I can confirm that the body in the footage and what we had to deal with were very similar. IE; closed casket.

Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Lots to be gained by false-flag attacks to generate public outrage and flagging (sic) support for a failing war - especially against a figure who can be presented sympathetically. And Putin has history….
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publica...ok-ryazan-1999
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia...tment_bombings
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publica...ok-ryazan-1999
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia...tment_bombings

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If he did offer his daughter up, I bet he is peeved, its a definite downgrade from the car he had to a Lada.
