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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 18th Jun 2022, 13:24
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For those skilled in the art who may wish to comment on the state and/or location of the vessel, an uncropped version of the Buyan-M under tow:



Last edited by Sepp; 18th Jun 2022 at 13:30. Reason: Added "and/or location" to text.
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Old 18th Jun 2022, 13:27
  #6382 (permalink)  
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https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...es-2022-06-17/

Gray Eagle Drone Sale to Ukraine Hits Snag
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Old 18th Jun 2022, 13:49
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Russians stealing crops again, this time cherries, with the intention to sell in Crimea, but they skimmed some off the top for themselves, shame the farmer had deliberately poisoned them then.....

Farmers ‘laced cherries with chemicals to poison Russian soldiers’ (msn.com)

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Old 18th Jun 2022, 17:09
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Originally Posted by etudiant
Nice video, but not comfy complaining about the Chinese flying too close to our recon planes when we clearly do just that to the Russians as well.
Wouldn't dream of it dear boy!

Mog


SHHH!
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Old 18th Jun 2022, 17:21
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Lithuania has suspended transit of various cargos to Kaliningrad. Up to 50% of all supplies, according to the Kaliningrad governor.

The sanctioned goods include building materials, metals and all other goods subject to EU sanctions.

whilst not a full blockade it is close to it and crippling for the local economy.

Russia will, it is assumed, either have to accept the sanctions or attempt to deblockade Kaliningrad.
Which they can do quite easily by sea? Seems like a bit of a non-story to me. What's the source - the Torygraph?

In which case .. the Suwalki corridor may come into play.
Urrghh. How many times? This is just not going to happen. Why do journalists keep recycling this daft scenario??
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Old 18th Jun 2022, 17:31
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Originally Posted by Sepp
For those skilled in the art who may wish to comment on the state and/or location of the vessel, an uncropped version of the Buyan-M under tow:
Not skilled, but it looks undamaged to me, if you compare this pic to those taken earlier in its lifetime. Looks more than a little tatty, but I guess its been operating out to sea for some time (it being designed primarily for littoral ops).

I did read that the Russian navy have been unimpressed with the type's performance and are not commissioning any more
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Old 18th Jun 2022, 17:41
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Tatty, and the surface radar radome appears to be on deck just forward of the aft CIWS.
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Old 18th Jun 2022, 17:50
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Originally Posted by Redlands
Tatty, and the surface radar radome appears to be on deck just forward of the aft CIWS.
Good spot!

Maybe it err just fell off? Lucky catch if it did.
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Old 18th Jun 2022, 18:53
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Is it?

see



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Old 18th Jun 2022, 19:12
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Is it?
I think there are two different configurations in use, one with the radome mounted on the mast, the other with it mounted aft per these photos. If you Google this most of the pics show the former.
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Old 18th Jun 2022, 19:15
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It looks to me to be off to the scrappy

Could it be that they are hiding damage on the starboard side?

IG
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Old 18th Jun 2022, 19:40
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Is it?

see


Not the same vessel as posted by Sepp.
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Old 18th Jun 2022, 20:01
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Originally Posted by goofer3
Not the same vessel as posted by Sepp.
Interesting pic - because the Velikiy Ustyug (651) as shown in that pic is indeed being touted at the vessel in the pic I posted (and I believe it to be so, because other ships of the type either [a] have names that do not fit the blanked out characters in my (or Twitter post) pics, or [b] the ship's number does not occupy the blanked out space in same (most other ships, the number appears further aft), or [c] both.

Pic for comparison:




651 has often been photographed without a masthead radar, even when in good order. Note the number is further aft on the stbd side of the hull.

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Old 18th Jun 2022, 20:19
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I feel that as this is the Military Forum, I should declare that I'm not mil, not even ex-... pure civvy. My interest in the discussion here - apart from the faint possibility that we might all be treated to an in depth tanning session - is that this place offers some of the best information and analysis I've seen. I promise to behave.

Last edited by Sepp; 18th Jun 2022 at 20:40.
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Old 19th Jun 2022, 02:25
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Purely. a WAG but could the radome and mast be stowed on deck in order to be towed / pushed under some low bridges?
Speculation on my part.

Originally Posted by Sepp
Interesting pic - because the Velikiy Ustyug (651) as shown in that pic is indeed being touted at the vessel in the pic I posted (and I believe it to be so, because other ships of the type either [a] have names that do not fit the blanked out characters in my (or Twitter post) pics, or the ship's number does not occupy the blanked out space in same (most other ships, the number appears further aft), or [c] both.

Pic for comparison:




651 has often been photographed without a masthead radar, even when in good order. Note the number is further aft on the stbd side of the hull.


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Old 19th Jun 2022, 03:28
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Originally Posted by albatross
Purely. a WAG but could the radome and mast be stowed on deck in order to be towed / pushed under some low bridges?
Speculation on my part.

Would have to be whats the point of having a radar that 270 degrees is blocked by the superstructure of the ship.
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Old 19th Jun 2022, 06:10
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An excellent thread - but in the context of the Cold War the drawdown in production capability and bases started much earlier with the concept of the 3 day war as the Russians advanced before we went nuclear.

Meaning no additional manpower was needed beyond that point. To the point Admin sections and kitchens were closed to provide guards for 72 hours with their work ceasing.

The shock when prolonged operations were required in the preparation for GW I was palpable, with UK stations being gutted to provide these essential services to the few deployed squadrons.

I was at SOC Boulmer and had to give weekly briefings to the families of the cooks, drivers, admin clerks etc who had suddenly been sent to Saudi whilst we the “combat forces” of the Operations Wing we left at home watching it on TV…

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...860118528.html

It is now 115 days since Russia invaded #Ukraine. Today, an examination of how the war has re-emphasised industrial capacity to sustain military operations in the 21st century. ….

This week, an article by Alex Vershinin at @RUSI_org explored the consumption rates of ammunition in the Russo-Ukraine War and how industry capacity to manufacture the large quantities of ammunition needed for modern war is limited. You can read the full article here:

https://t.co/gRAGrrcr0f

The article argues that “war between peer or near-peer adversaries demands the existence of a technically advanced, mass scale, industrial-age production capability.” This is true.

But it is also an old lesson re-learned. In the wake of the Cold War, and the draw down on military spending, military forces were downsized (reducing demand), and militaries engaged in operations that only had short periods of high intensity combat.…
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Old 19th Jun 2022, 06:22
  #6398 (permalink)  
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https://wartranslated.com/what-might...ans-worldview/

What might be the average Russian’s worldview?
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Old 19th Jun 2022, 09:13
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Originally Posted by ORAC
https://wartranslated.com/what-might...ans-worldview/

What might be the average Russian’s worldview?
Isn’t that hard to say?
What’s an “average Russian”?
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Old 19th Jun 2022, 09:20
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Thanks for that link , ORAC. Well worth reading.
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