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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 21st Aug 2022, 21:57
  #8301 (permalink)  
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If the statement by the “NRA” is true this marks the start of a civil war amongst the elite which may spread - and which side will the army, being decimated in Ukraine, take?

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Old 21st Aug 2022, 22:01
  #8302 (permalink)  
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Russian TV channel Tsargrad is now openly calling for the destruction of Ukraine and declaring “Russia cannot co-exist with Ukraine and on the same planet.”
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Old 21st Aug 2022, 22:15
  #8303 (permalink)  
 
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Old 21st Aug 2022, 22:47
  #8304 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Russian TV channel Tsargrad is now openly calling for the destruction of Ukraine and declaring “Russia cannot co-exist with Ukraine and on the same planet.”
There are self-aggrandizing, egocentric, amoral talking heads in apparently ever-increasing numbers all over the planet, and they have influence that far exceeds their competence or fidelity, they have become puppets for hire. Russia is oversubscribed to this propaganda, but the west has it's fair share too. Personally, as with Lord Haw Haw etc, they need to be held accountable, which includes a number of Mr Rupert's sociopathic bunch too in all fairness. The US 1st amendment doesn't give an unfettered right to deliberately espouse B/S and to proffer it to a populace that seems to have lost objectivity.

The Russian resistance indicated to be the "NRA", presumably, the really really real NRA, sounds like a consequence of the great master plan by Putin the strategist. The callous indifference that Putin and his mob of gangsters have shown to the provinces in manning the Putin meat grinder, it is hardly a surprise that people get a bit peeved. There is a more surprising activity in Belorussia, where the actions of the resistance to the last Great European dictator have impacted Govt responses, but at a high cost. The Last Great may be getting near his use-by date. "...Last, Late Great..." ?.

Russian resistance will be aware that to get the attention of Mr V. Putin, the activity will need to ramp up within Moscow and St Pete's city limits, and that is indeed an unfortunate but foreseeable consequence of the cynical way of doing business that has become de rigueur of late.

If the RU TV talking heads want to find the "culprits", A.K.A. "heroic resistance to tyranny", it is their group that is enabling the actions of one man that will lead to resistance. Would think the talking heads would be wanting to be careful turning on their limos of a mornin'... "aye, there be dragons....".

There is a simple fix for this, Vlad, go home, take your remaining troops, care for them, and send them home. Recycle your T-72s to plows, they are not very good at their design task... clean up on aisle 13, pay for your breakages, Ukraine will take Master Card, Visa but not American Express (no one does) learn to read so you can honor your contracts, and go apologise to your conscript catchment regions, they want a bit of a word with you. Thereafter, take your loot, and your sycophants and go spend your days in Soichi, it's nice this time of year. Don't smoke in bed and be careful starting cars, as there are a lot of new Lada owners who are not too impressed with the circumstances surrounding your bargain with their former sons.

Not sure that Russia can stand much more of your success and glorious Special Summer Holidays.

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Old 22nd Aug 2022, 00:56
  #8305 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by fdr
There are self-aggrandizing, egocentric, amoral talking heads in apparently ever-increasing numbers all over the planet, and they have influence that far exceeds their competence or fidelity, they have become puppets for hire. Russia is oversubscribed to this propaganda, but the west has it's fair share too. Personally, as with Lord Haw Haw etc, they need to be held accountable, which includes a number of Mr Rupert's sociopathic bunch too in all fairness. The US 1st amendment doesn't give an unfettered right to deliberately espouse B/S and to proffer it to a populace that seems to have lost objectivity.

The Russian resistance indicated to be the "NRA", presumably, the really really real NRA, sounds like a consequence of the great master plan by Putin the strategist. The callous indifference that Putin and his mob of gangsters have shown to the provinces in manning the Putin meat grinder, it is hardly a surprise that people get a bit peeved. There is a more surprising activity in Belorussia, where the actions of the resistance to the last Great European dictator have impacted Govt responses, but at a high cost. The Last Great may be getting near his use-by date. "...Last, Late Great..." ?.

Russian resistance will be aware that to get the attention of Mr V. Putin, the activity will need to ramp up within Moscow and St Pete's city limits, and that is indeed an unfortunate but foreseeable consequence of the cynical way of doing business that has become de rigueur of late.

If the RU TV talking heads want to find the "culprits", A.K.A. "heroic resistance to tyranny", it is their group that is enabling the actions of one man that will lead to resistance. Would think the talking heads would be wanting to be careful turning on their limos of a mornin'... "aye, there be dragons....".

There is a simple fix for this, Vlad, go home, take your remaining troops, care for them, and send them home. Recycle your T-72s to plows, they are not very good at their design task... clean up on aisle 13, pay for your breakages, Ukraine will take Master Card, Visa but not American Express (no one does) learn to read so you can honor your contracts, and go apologise to your conscript catchment regions, they want a bit of a word with you. Thereafter, take your loot, and your sycophants and go spend your days in Soichi, it's nice this time of year. Don't smoke in bed and be careful starting cars, as there are a lot of new Lada owners who are not too impressed with the circumstances surrounding your bargain with their former sons.

Not sure that Russia can stand much more of your success and glorious Special Summer Holidays.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1561425395379015685
This is starting to remind me of Vietnam. When the Russian draft happens we will see real resistance, but there is a large percentage who will support military activity regardless. It took an American TV news reporter, Walter Cronkite, saying on national news that it was over to really tip the scales with the Viet Nam war. This needs to happen with the Russians.

I was drafted to serve in that war and was inducted in Mobile, Alabama in December 1970 as my draft 'lottery' number was 69, which was not a pass. I reported in December 1970 for induction. I passed all the physical and mental tests and spent the night in a barracks with foolish people. I was sent home the next day as the draft had been over-called. I dodged the meat grinder, although my story is more complex. 'Nuf said. Good luck to the Russian grunts who are in the same situation. Sorry you're there, just say no.


Last edited by Winemaker; 22nd Aug 2022 at 01:11.
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Old 22nd Aug 2022, 04:02
  #8306 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Winemaker
This is starting to remind me of Vietnam. When the Russian draft happens we will see real resistance, but there is a large percentage who will support military activity regardless. It took an American TV news reporter, Walter Cronkite, saying on national news that it was over to really tip the scales with the Viet Nam war. This needs to happen with the Russians.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCdXVWsTpSM
There is a dissonance in the propaganda by the Russian media that followed the demise of the young lady driving the foreign import in Moscow. The immediate clamor is to destroy Ukraine for their actions as they are responsible for the death of the charming young lady who espoused the same line as her still alive father (the day is young)... So.... expanding on that linkage, Russian media wants to kill the things responsible for the heinous act of dispatching the occupant of the vehicle, they are an enemy of the Rodina etc... Indeed they are. Turns out that they are Russian citizens, that have been driven to this point of response by.... V Putin. So, continuing on that theme, can the Russian media please vent their ire at the correct source, which is, V. Putin, ul. Vosdvizhenka d.1; Moscow 1.

It's not often that I concur with the media, but in this instance, I do, that indeed, M V Putin, esq is the enemy of the State of Russia, and all efforts to provide a dispatch service for him by Russian's, to protect Russians from his attacks on Russian's, should be conduct, W.I.E., if not sooner.

It's impolite to hate Ukrainians for something that was in fact done by your own team, and which arises as a foreseeable consequence of
the actions of the crime family syndicate I/C.

Does the NRA change the situation like Walter K did for the US in Viet Nam? I would think that they do, as there is now a direct threat from Russians to Russia, that are the direct consequence of the vampire in the crypt at the kremlin. At the same time, the potential for maintaining a disparate set of states under the thumb of the all mightly Russian forces has been somewhat tarnished, flambée'd, and otherwise diminished, reduced in limbs, increased in depth (fathoms) and generally distributed in an untidy manner around a peaceful neighboring country.

Russia started this entertainment with 120 of 174 odd BTG's, losing half of that number in the first 30 days as being effective. They regrouped, added equipment with more historical character, WW1, WW2, Korean, 5o's, 60's vintage pieces, to give more space in the museums for the latest equipment. With more than the 120 BTG still caught in the quagmire that is Viet Nam Ukraine the reserve capability to maintain a loving and caring hand on the states fortunate enough to be under the benevolent leaders' care would seem to be.... non-existent.

Russia can choose to maintain Vlad's folly for the near future and lose every state that doesn't include the name Moscow or St Petersburg, or they can go to contestant #2, or some other solution to their rather untidy bed that has been made.

A simple Baysean-like review....
  • Probability of Collapse of the Russian Federation? Unknown, but it ain't zero.
  • Probability of a conventional win in the field against Ukraine at all? Closer to zero than 100%.
  • Probability of taking over Ukraine and not losing the Federation? Unknown but close to zero.
  • Probability of taking over Ukraine, and not having a 100-year guerilla war? Infinitesimal, e.g.,Plank scale stuff.
And of course, Russia will choose door #5, but one thing that aviation teaches is, that you can't ignore physics, and putting off a bad decision hoping that things get better is not a brilliant course of action.

The OODA loop, of a united Ukraine vs a despotic and corrupt Russia, looks a lot like this IMHO:
[[b]WARNING: Aviation Content]



That's just on response, effectiveness? That is more stark.
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Old 22nd Aug 2022, 07:02
  #8307 (permalink)  
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Latest attack on the Nova Kakhovka dam. Listen to the sound track, sounds like a full HIMARS salvo, and reportedly all landed within feet of each other.

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Old 22nd Aug 2022, 08:03
  #8308 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Latest attack on the Nova Kakhovka dam. Listen to the sound track, sounds like a full HIMARS salvo, and reportedly all landed within feet of each other.
Looks like they struck 2 different targets there... Much was targeted at the overhanging roadway to the SW of the power station complex, and SE of the main spillways, but they have also targeted the bridge over the lock/canal to the E of the power station. If that has been dropped, then there will be a bit of a nuisance to river transport for the rest of the nastiness, and that bridge looked like a low-risk target WRT the main dam structure. Await the BDA...

Now if there is spare bang available...

HIT ME! : 45°18'34.76"N. 36°30'17.12"E
HIT ME TOO!: 45°18'31.27"N 36°30'19.64"E
ONCE MORE DEAR FRIENDS!: 45°18'32.97"N 36°30'18.30"E
RETURN TO SENDER! 45°18'34.03"N 36°30'19.84"E

etc...

Please Note: No animals were hurt in the renovation of this coat hangar. The area is designated halal, no ORC's allowed. By Order....


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Old 22nd Aug 2022, 09:30
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I think you can count this as a hit as well


Giving them a hint they are not wanted.

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Old 22nd Aug 2022, 09:57
  #8310 (permalink)  
 
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They must be worried that one of them has a SAM in his budgie smugglers.



Smile, you're now on the Ukrainian target list..



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Old 22nd Aug 2022, 10:46
  #8311 (permalink)  
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[aviation content]

the little airport just north of Sevastopol, at aeroport Imeni A. Koltunovoy would seem to be an open invitation unless the guests have left the building. Some 40+ Su-31/35 and a smattering of MiG-29, and a handful of L-39's. Hopefully safely near Vladivostok or some other safe area. 5nm ENE of harbor... looks like a great place to spend time in speedo's, for tourists with smartphones and FB accounts.

44°41'11.25"N 33°34'21.57"E
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Old 22nd Aug 2022, 11:01
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Wow ... they do like to park close together in straight lines! Bless them!
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Old 22nd Aug 2022, 11:51
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Originally Posted by MPN11
Wow ... they do like to park close together in straight lines! Bless them!
And often with munitions stacked between them, they obviously haven't watched the film Pearl Harbour

It looks like the Kherson bridge is taking a caning again, and in daylight.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1561656619615780864?cxt=HHwWgICwlf2aj6wrAAAA

..

Last edited by NutLoose; 22nd Aug 2022 at 12:08.
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Old 22nd Aug 2022, 13:37
  #8314 (permalink)  
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Mind boggling incompetence by the Russians in executing a false-flag op.

Ignoring the totally out of proportion head on the photo, as stated we asked to believe not only that she took the pass into Russia with her - but presented it to Russian border security when leaving so they could photograph it….

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Old 22nd Aug 2022, 13:46
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Yet again, a pretty face has been the downfall of a man. When will we ever learn?
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Old 22nd Aug 2022, 14:14
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Old 22nd Aug 2022, 14:31
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Locals from occupied #Kherson city report that the automotive Antonisvkiy bridge across the Dnipro river is no more.

Today, #Ukraine AF struck the bridge again right at the moment when 9 Russian trucks full of ammo were crossing it. Ammo explosions facilitated its destruction.


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Old 22nd Aug 2022, 15:15
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Originally Posted by etudiant
In that case, taking out one of his close associates
But Dugin isn't, is he? This is a figment of the west's imagination, by many accounts.

To me, that is too complicated, it is simpler to attribute this to a foreign intelligence service
You mean the SBU? Anyone else would be far from "simple" to attribute.

As fdr noted, who would benefit from this? Hard to tell at this distance, even more so because we're talking about Russia.
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Old 22nd Aug 2022, 15:25
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Mind boggling incompetence by the Russians in executing a false-flag op.

Ignoring the totally out of proportion head on the photo, as stated we asked to believe not only that she took the pass into Russia with her - but presented it to Russian border security when leaving so they could photograph it….
They never really try that hard. I think there's an FSB directorate dedicated to retrospectively planting the most incriminating evidence at crime scenes (passports, explosives, signed confessions, letters from Zelensky wishing them bon chance etc etc) to cover up their incompetence in thwarting such attacks.
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Old 22nd Aug 2022, 15:32
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
They never really try that hard. I think there's an FSB directorate dedicated to retrospectively planting the most incriminating evidence at crime scenes (passports, explosives, signed confessions, letters from Zelensky wishing them bon chance etc etc) to cover up their incompetence in thwarting such attacks.

Could be anyone, rent a model?


why would you not check on the driver if it had just happened and possibly the passenger as the door was open..

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