Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[mickjoebill]

Originally Posted by rattman

your the one claiming there 800 military aircraft up. I am not going to go count them, but 200-250 at a guess

At time of original post, from adsb.
https://imgur.com/a/RlsCxwR

[rattman]

Originally Posted by mickjoebill

At time of original post, from adsb.
https://imgur.com/a/RlsCxwR

Not sure what you are trying to prove with a photo taken by a potato, but at the time there was approx 250 military aircraft up over the US. The majority of these were trainers. T-38, texans, Cessna 172 and EC135's none of which are useful for invading a country. This was about normal or fraction above normal amount for the time of day

[megan]

The Kremlin's mouthpieces blame Ukraine, Estonia and the UK for Daria Dugina's death

One thought I had was did her father purposely sacrifice his daughter in an attempt to rally the population?

[Tartiflette Fan]

Originally Posted by fdr

. That can be done softly, in a manner like the French did to Japan on car trade back in the day. Considerer how long a single inspector would take to do a comprehensive safety survey A

On a point of accuracy, I never heard of that (whilst working in that industry). There was ,however, the well-publicised requirement for all video-recorders to be examined at the Poitiers customs-post - many hundreds of km from major ports. IIRC cars were simply limited in number on an EU-wide basis

[Video Mixdown]

Originally Posted by megan

One thought I had was did her father purposely sacrifice his daughter in an attempt to rally the population?

Purposely? Unwittingly? Under Duress? Mistakenly? On Putin's orders? By some nascent resistance group? Could be any of the above in Russian politics. I think the least likely is Ukraine - why would they bother when their country is full of much more important targets.

[Economics101]

Originally Posted by etudiant

I respect Mearsheimer's expertise and take his comments seriously, because he was outspoken about the disastrous consequences likely to result from the effort to bring Ukraine into the western fold.
He called that exactly, so his current posting deserves attention. Just because it does not make for happy reading is no excuse for brushing it under the rug.

Wrong on one major point. Ukraine is not being brought into the western fold by others: it's desperately trying to escape from Moscow's clutches. It is not about western manipulation and plotting its about Ukraine's own very fervently held wishes.

[peter we]

Originally Posted by Video Mixdown

Purposely? Unwittingly? Under Duress? Mistakenly? On Putin's orders? By some nascent resistance group? Could be any of the above in Russian politics. I think the least likely is Ukraine - why would they bother when their country is full of much more important targets.

There is a story circulating that Dugin offered to sacrifice his faughter for the cause. The nazi one.

[peter we]

Originally Posted by Economics101

Wrong on one major point. Ukraine is not being brought into the western fold by others: it's desperately trying to escape from Moscow's clutches. It is not about western manipulation and plotting its about Ukraine's own very fervently held wishes.

it's a disaster for Russia..

Freedom from the Russian threat, Nato membership and economic growth will mean future generations think it was worth the cost.

[Less Hair]

Could the right wing young daughter be considered to be any future political competitor to Mr. Putin?

[NutLoose]

For someone that's been through a car explosion and fire, she appears to look remarkably fresh and the grieving father looks relaxed and smiling.

Twitter

[dead_pan]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

Turkey could also screw up Russias Syrian support by closing their airspace to overflights.

I think people are overstating the significance of Erdo's comments. Despite his many faults, he's actually pretty adept at playing both sides. FWIW Turkey has never recognised the Russian annexation of Crimea, so he's sticking to a long-held line. Nothing new here.

On the other hand, Turkey seems to be doing quite well out of Russian tourists, their national airline being one of the few 'European' ones still flying to Moscow etc. I also suspect there's an angle for Turkey in the grain deal.

[dead_pan]

Originally Posted by etudiant

I respect Mearsheimer's expertise and take his comments seriously, because he was outspoken about the disastrous consequences likely to result from the effort to bring Ukraine into the western fold.
He called that exactly, so his current posting deserves attention. Just because it does not make for happy reading is no excuse for brushing it under the rug.

Depends on your perspective. It could be argued that we are where we are because of the consequences of Russia trying to re-assert their control over Ukraine. Putin had been bragging about doing this for years.

Kissinger changed his mind recently. I wonder if Mearsheimer will too?

I know you've set out your stall as a contrarian but do you honestly believe Ukraine is at fault and weren't free to make their own choices as a sovereign nation?

[peter we]

Originally Posted by peter we

There is a story circulating that Dugin offered to sacrifice his faughter for the cause. The nazi one.

General SVR Telegram channel

[Recc]

Originally Posted by Less Hair

Could the right wing young daughter be considered to be any future political competitor to Mr. Putin?

I don't think that that is a likely motive as she has no formal political role (or even a particularly high profile in Russia). The Russian leadership is not homogenous when it comes to the policy on Ukraine and Dugin (if not strictly in a leadership role) was influential among the hardliners/ ideologues. The most likely explanation (in my opinion) is that the assassination targeted the father, and was organised by more liberal/ realist elements within the security services. If it was authorised by Putin, then it seems likely that it may be a prelude to an attempt at de-escalation. I imagine that the hardliners who advised him that a quick war in Ukraine was achievable and desirable may not be that popular right now.

If it really was a result of infighting within the Russian leadership, then it will be interesting to see whether it is an isolated act or the start of something more serious.

[dead_pan]

Originally Posted by Recc

I don't think that that is a likely motive as she has no formal political role (or even a particularly high profile in Russia). The Russian leadership is not homogenous when it comes to the policy on Ukraine and Dugin (if not strictly in a leadership role) was influential among the hardliners/ ideologues. The most likely explanation (in my opinion) is that the assassination targeted the father, and was organised by more liberal/ realist elements within the security services. If it was authorised by Putin, then it seems likely that it may be a prelude to an attempt at de-escalation. I imagine that the hardliners who advised him that a quick war in Ukraine was achievable and desirable may not be that popular right now.

If it really was a result of infighting within the Russian leadership, then it will be interesting to see whether it is an isolated act or the start of something more serious.

I think you're overstating the importance of Dugin. From what I've heard/read he was a bit of a has-been.

Back in the 90s people were regularly blown up by car bombs in Moscow etc, often with no clear explanation or beneficiary. The same applies to this attack IMO.

If we're looking for portents, I think it will be noteworthy if Russia let's today celebrations in Ukraine pass without incident (if only as an indication of their ability to do anything significant).

[WB627]

Originally Posted by Less Hair

Could the right wing young daughter be considered to be any future political competitor to Mr. Putin?

She is reported to have been after Sergei Shoigu's job as she reckoned she could do a better job (probably not difficult), so that provides one suspect. If she is that ambitious then the top job might have been in her sights making Putin suspect no 2.

Originally Posted by NutLoose

For someone that's been through a car explosion and fire, she appears to look remarkably fresh and the grieving father looks relaxed and smiling.

https://twitter.com/KramarenkoMari3/...83329867931650

Open coffin at the funeral. Was she even in the car? Is she even dead?

The FSB has a lot of questions to answer.

[Low average]

Not much to be gained from targeting her. Not good for PR - killing young women, no matter their beliefs. I think most likely scenario is that they were after the father, but the operation did not go to plan.

[The Helpful Stacker]

Originally Posted by WB627

Open coffin at the funeral. Was she even in the car? Is she even dead?

Indeed.

There is footage out there of her body (apparently) after she was ejected from the vehicle during the blast and, its not pretty. There didn't appear to be enough left intact to allow an open coffin, that's for sure.

Having attended the scene of a fatality on the railway recently (person Vs 120mph passenger train) I can confirm that the body in the footage and what we had to deal with were very similar. IE; closed casket.

[ORAC]

Lots to be gained by false-flag attacks to generate public outrage and flagging (sic) support for a failing war - especially against a figure who can be presented sympathetically. And Putin has history….

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publica...ok-ryazan-1999

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia...tment_bombings

[NutLoose]

Originally Posted by The Helpful Stacker

Indeed.

There is footage out there of her body (apparently) after she was ejected from the vehicle during the blast and, its not pretty. There didn't appear to be enough left intact to allow an open coffin, that's for sure.

or identify
If he did offer his daughter up, I bet he is peeved, its a definite downgrade from the car he had to a Lada.