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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 23rd Aug 2022, 20:36
  #8361 (permalink)  
 
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The worm has turned......

President Erdogan says that Russia is required by international law to leave Crimea and give it back to Ukraine.

Talking of worms....

Here is another one that has seen which way the wind is blowing and wants to be on the right side when it ends....

Slovak Defense Minister has announced that Slovakia will send 30 BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine exchange for 15 Leopard2A4 Main Battle Tanks from Germany.


Scholz had better pull his finger out quick, otherwise it will all be over before his tanks arrive.

No guts no glory


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Old 23rd Aug 2022, 21:49
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Approximately 800 military aircraft airborne over USA in the last hour.
HIgh level of surveillance aircraft airborne around US and North of Venezuela

​​​​​​ State Dept ordered all US civilians and to leave Ukraine.
https://ua.usembassy.gov/security-alert-u-s-embassy-kyiv-ukraine-6/
Mjb


Last edited by mickjoebill; 23rd Aug 2022 at 22:06.
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Old 23rd Aug 2022, 21:50
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Originally Posted by etudiant
For those who have access to 'Foreign Affairs', John Mearsheimer's latest piece on this conflict is well worth reading. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukrai...g-fire-ukraine
His take is that there is no settlement in sight or under discussion and that both sides have upped their aims, so the prospect is for further escalation, with no obvious stopping point.
He sees the destruction of the Ukraine power grid as a likely first step..
His assessments have been wrong on many occasions. Most likely will be wrong on this too
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Old 23rd Aug 2022, 21:52
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Originally Posted by mickjoebill
Approximately 800 military aircraft airborne over USA in the last hour.
HIgh level of surveillance aircraft airborne around US and North of Venezuela

​​​​​​Reports that State Dept ordered all US civilians and military to leave Ukraine.

Mjb
Source? Sounds like wibbling to me
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Old 23rd Aug 2022, 21:56
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
Source? Sounds like wibbling to me
ADSB exchange for the flight info.
US state department for the alert.
https://ua.usembassy.gov/security-al...yiv-ukraine-6/

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Old 23rd Aug 2022, 22:03
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Originally Posted by etudiant View Post
For those who have access to 'Foreign Affairs', John Mearsheimer's latest piece on this conflict is well worth reading. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukrai...g-fire-ukraine
It could have been dictated by Moscow's troll factories. Give Putin this time what he will be content with to avoid nuclear war.

1. If Putin is insane, then nuclear war is inevitable anyway.

2. If He isn't insane, giving him anything now guarantees he will regroup and be back for more. Followed, at some point when it goes too far by WW3,

logically, therefore, only defeat for the rapists and other war criminals (preferably with a Nuremberg style trial and sentencing of the criminals, but I don't hold my breath on that one) is the only possibility to avoid WW3. QED.
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Old 23rd Aug 2022, 22:06
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
Source? Sounds like wibbling to me
There is more up than I would expect at this time of day, but its trainers like Texan2, T-38. Also the 20+ blackhawks in on exercise also adds some extra's
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Old 23rd Aug 2022, 22:10
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Originally Posted by rattman
There is more up than I would expect at this time of day, but its trainers like Texan2, T-38. Also the 20+ blackhawks in on exercise also adds some extra's
Number for normal day is ..?

Mjb
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Old 23rd Aug 2022, 22:15
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Originally Posted by mickjoebill
Number for normal day is ..?

Mjb
your the one claiming there 800 military aircraft up. I am not going to go count them, but 200-250 at a guess
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Old 23rd Aug 2022, 22:33
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Originally Posted by mickjoebill
Approximately 800 military aircraft airborne over USA in the last hour.
HIgh level of surveillance aircraft airborne around US and North of Venezuela https://ua.usembassy.gov/security-al...yiv-ukraine-6/
Mjb
So, unless the USA is going to invade Venezuela, what are the implications for Ukraine?, Why would 800 aircraft airborne around US and north of Venezuela necessitate the evacuation from Ukraine of US personnel?
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Old 23rd Aug 2022, 22:42
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Originally Posted by cynicalint
So, unless the USA is going to invade Venezuela, what are the implications for Ukraine?, Why would 800 aircraft airborne around US and north of Venezuela necessitate the evacuation from Ukraine of US personnel?
nearest military aircraft to venezula is a spanish A-310, so unless spain is planning to invade with 200 infantry
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Old 23rd Aug 2022, 22:44
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Originally Posted by WB627
That is a major game changer. If Turkey takes that position, they have the ability to stop all Russian marine trade beyond the Bosphorus, which trashes Russias dwindling energy revenues which are already hurting. That can be done softly, in a manner like the French did to Japan on car trade back in the day. Considerer how long a single inspector would take to do a comprehensive safety survey and search for war munitions, while applying all EU OH&SA rules impeccably, and workplace agreements, breaks for a hookah, Coffee & baklava etc. By the time the inspector has driven from Antalya to Istanbul, amidst the traffic, the poor guy/girl will be exhausted. Pity. Fridays are out... Sundays are out for the other side of the creek.... Russias capacity was limited previously, with a 4 day round trip cycle... India is now around 40 days, China is 70 days.. and the oil is being sold at a $35 discount on a collapsing price due to, at least in part the cooling of global trade caused by Putin and his ruckus. At present oil is costing more to sell than produce for Vlad's wonder math, and that is going to be the case while Russia remains belligerent. Latest projection by Yale university is Russia is heading for "economic oblivion", which is not going to go down well with the priviledged of Moscow and St Petes. Makes for sober reading, and does not appear to be biased, it just presents some brutal facts that Vlad should have been keenly aware of prior to his field trials of the Russian military.

Russia has to work out a way to recover any semblance of confidence in its trading partners, as the partners it now has been forced to trade with are price driven, not ideological. While V Putin is in power, or any of his crony crims, that is going to be... "....is problem...".

The NRA could rapidly gain support I would think, the winds of change may be starting to "blow",as heralded by the hapless young lady Dugina; Guess Russian Uber may become popular with the current Russian regime, "...is safer, da..."

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Old 23rd Aug 2022, 23:13
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Originally Posted by rattman
nearest military aircraft to venezula is a spanish A-310, so unless spain is planning to invade with 200 infantry
Quite! I was just querying the relevance of the information to the situation in Ukraine!
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Old 23rd Aug 2022, 23:15
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Originally Posted by mickjoebill
Approximately 800 military aircraft airborne over USA in the last hour.
Mjb
Perhaps RTB following: https://www.mlive.com/news/2022/07/m...in-august.html
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Old 23rd Aug 2022, 23:19
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FDR
Perceptive, thought provoking post!
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Old 23rd Aug 2022, 23:37
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Turkey could also screw up Russias Syrian support by closing their airspace to overflights.
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Old 23rd Aug 2022, 23:44
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Scholz has just announced the delivery of 3 x Iris-T AA systems and 10 recovery-tanks. Total value about E 500 million. No dates given. It might be coincidental, but these could not be described as offensive weapons: he still seems to sit on the fence.
They are also providing 250 Vulcano artillery rounds that are high precision 80Km rounds and if you look at what they have or are providing it is extensive.

https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-...kraine-2054992

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato...ojectiles.html
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Old 24th Aug 2022, 00:43
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
His assessments have been wrong on many occasions. Most likely will be wrong on this too

I respect Mearsheimer's expertise and take his comments seriously, because he was outspoken about the disastrous consequences likely to result from the effort to bring Ukraine into the western fold.
He called that exactly, so his current posting deserves attention. Just because it does not make for happy reading is no excuse for brushing it under the rug.
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Old 24th Aug 2022, 00:47
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Originally Posted by Fitter2
It could have been dictated by Moscow's troll factories. Give Putin this time what he will be content with to avoid nuclear war.

1. If Putin is insane, then nuclear war is inevitable anyway.

2. If He isn't insane, giving him anything now guarantees he will regroup and be back for more. Followed, at some point when it goes too far by WW3,

logically, therefore, only defeat for the rapists and other war criminals (preferably with a Nuremberg style trial and sentencing of the criminals, but I don't hold my breath on that one) is the only possibility to avoid WW3. QED.
Did you even read the article? Your comments don't relate to anything Mearsheimer wrote.
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Old 24th Aug 2022, 02:05
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Originally Posted by rattman
nearest military aircraft to venezula is a spanish A-310, so unless spain is planning to invade with 200 infantry
US mil aircraft doing search track on adsb at time of posting.

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