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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 25th Aug 2022, 15:41
  #8441 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Beamr View Post
AFP: Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant disconnected from power grid

I hope the russkies have capable people around that can handle it now without the used fuel overheating or reactors melting down. Otherwise... sheeeeet




https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1562795029948575750
Well, this is what they’ve been trying to do all along, hoping that their own or Ukrainian artillery will cut the feeder lines to the Ukrainian grid.

The problem I read somewhere is that the cooling systems run on the power that they are trying to disconnect, so reliable alternative temporary power is needed from another source while they attempt to disconnect north-flowing electricity.

Last edited by jolihokistix; 25th Aug 2022 at 16:45.
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Old 25th Aug 2022, 15:46
  #8442 (permalink)  
 
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Etudiant, here is your glorious Russia in all it's glory................. and hopefully soon to be sanitised of everything Russian and returned to Ukraine.

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Old 25th Aug 2022, 15:52
  #8443 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by FUMR View Post
Is Putin wanting to increase his forces by 137000 personnel perhaps indirectly indicate the loss of roughly the same number in the past six months?
Russia's math... RusPutin can get his 137,000 in a single Mini Cooper, and still have room for some vodka bottles. (not the dart...)
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Old 25th Aug 2022, 17:44
  #8444 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by FUMR View Post
Is Putin wanting to increase his forces by 137000 personnel perhaps indirectly indicate the loss of roughly the same number in the past six months?
...just Putin having his rinse...rinse moment.
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Old 25th Aug 2022, 18:44
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Not sure if the main bridge in Kherson as I remember blue yellow lamp posts.
Translates as Current status of the Antonov bridge in Kherson.
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Old 25th Aug 2022, 20:06
  #8446 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Video Mixdown View Post
Clutching past events like a security blanket won't help you now. When Russia rolled the iron dice they rendered any previous treaties/agreements null and void, along with any control over the outcome.
No argument, the law is silent in wartime.
That imho is exactly what Mearsheimer and others have been harping on, when nations feel their vital interests are threatened, they will respond, irrespective of prior treaty obligations.
Given the results to date, it seems obvious that the Russian response was wrong. In context of Putin's oft quoted view that the collapse of the USSR was the seminal catastrophe of our era, the effort to decapitate the Ukraine simply provoked a concerted US/European effort to prevent Russia from turning back the clock.
So now both sides are stuck, while Europe hopes that sanctions will cause Russia to withdraw and Russia hopes that economic pressures will force Europe to remove the sanctions, .people are dying in Ukraine.
It is stupid beyond belief, even worse is that such stalemates make escalation almost inevitable, as Verdun and the Somme examples from WW1 underscore.
Mearsheimer points out that there is no visible diplomatic path forward to settle this conflict, so that escalation is the most likely outcome.
Of course, imho this is just the latest in the west's fratricidal wars which have opened the door to Asian dominance in world affairs. I don't think that these wars are desirable.
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Old 25th Aug 2022, 23:16
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Back in our regular program it appears that the HARM's in Ukraine aren't the latest batch.



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Old 26th Aug 2022, 00:31
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Originally Posted by Thrust Augmentation View Post
You are 100% correct.

Ignore & do not feed the troll.
Listen to all opinions regardless.
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Old 26th Aug 2022, 02:15
  #8449 (permalink)  
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Esteemed Colleagues in Military Aviation:

I recommend that you follow @dead_pan's example when you engage with what you assess as information of dubious merit.

All of us at one time or another have come across sundry rumors, information that doesn't make sense, and outright nonsense. How do we deal with it?

We do our best to find out what is correct, then we get that information out promptly. We do so because acting upon bad information risks the next operation (in peacetime or in war) ending badly.

Please adopt those professional habits to this discourse.

I have reduced some of the noise, and look forward to more aviation and military content.

Warmest Regards

T28B
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Old 26th Aug 2022, 02:16
  #8450 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by etudiant View Post
No argument, the law is silent in wartime.
Putin 24 FEB 22: SPECIAL MILITARY OPERATION.:

Not a "war", a criminal home invasion, with special circumstances; pre-meditation, conspiracy, racial profiling, genocide, rape, murder, wilful property damage.


Originally Posted by etudiant View Post
That imho is exactly what Mearsheimer and others have been harping on, when nations feel their vital interests are threatened, they will respond, irrespective of prior treaty obligations.
You justify the wholesale breach of international obligations based not on law, but a talking head who benefits from book sales. The poster child that you have for your premise is..... Russia. It is Russia that attacked Chechnya 2 times and then ran follow-up subversion, it is Russia that attacked Moldova, Georgia, and the other signatory states to the agreements that Russia had obligations to expressly not interfere, attack, or otherwise annoy... Russia feels no need to keep their word, yet you get upset with the rest of the world supporting it's victims. You confirm Russia is criminal in intent. If they don't intend to honor their obligations, then don't sign treaties stating that you will. The civilized world wishes to get on with life; Russia intends to get ion with genocide, murder, and rape of its neighbors, all under the auspices of defending Russia... Russia can stay as a hermit kingdom of murderers, or it can join civilization, it doesn't get to bitch about the unfairness of the civilized world's response to their depraved actions. Russia is, how you say... the word... Nekulturny, is so? Da!.


Originally Posted by etudiant View Post
Given the results to date, it seems obvious that the Russian response was wrong. In context of Putin's oft quoted view that the collapse of the USSR was the seminal catastrophe of our era, the effort to decapitate the Ukraine simply provoked a concerted US/European effort to prevent Russia from turning back the clock.
You presume that Russia has the fortitude that the French, British and Germans had on the front. My grandfather arrived in France in August 1914, and survived at the front for all of the madness of the Somme offenses, and left the field after the armistice.

Now, Russia fell apart in 1917, and walked off the battlefield, due to the revolt. That is where Russia is heading again at this time, due to the cynical action of the new emperor V Putin. Putin has done more damage to the Russian military than WW-1 did. To be clear, Putin did that by being an agent for the corruption that was endemic within the USSR to flourish under his rapacious kleptocratic governance. Your military is slightly more effective than Eritrea's.... own goal! Putin then set up the conditions precedent to not have a valid mental model of the world, through his despotic and poisonous, lethal, fall out of the window, drown in bathtub methods of managing dissent. Hardly a surprise that he was isolated... He expected Ukraine to fold like a soufflé.... he was wrong.




Originally Posted by etudiant View Post
So now both sides are stuck, while Europe hopes that sanctions will cause Russia to withdraw and Russia hopes that economic pressures will force Europe to remove the sanctions, .people are dying in Ukraine.
Russia is stuck, Ukraine is gaining strength, and can work tirelessly to defeat the logistics of Russia. Russia can bleed out in the field, have an internal rebellion as they have lost credibility to maintain a union under an iron rule that was found to be rusted out, or they can do themselves a favor, and ask for a cease-fire and remove themselves from all Ukrainian sovereign land. There are other options, door #5 etc, which result in the defeat of Russia's own population by the hand of Putin.

Originally Posted by etudiant View Post
It is stupid beyond belief, even worse is that such stalemates make escalation almost inevitable, as Verdun and the Somme examples from WW1 underscore.
This isn't Verdun or the Somme, Russia is going to bleed out in the field, and yet Putin can't bring himself to tell the truth to the Russian population, Wars historically were dependent on the economic strength of the combatants, today, that is only partially true, what determines the outcome is the moral element; Ukraine is fighting a criminal invader on its soil. Russia didn't even bother to tell it's troops that they were going to invade a friendly neighboring country that has never attacked Russia.

Originally Posted by etudiant View Post
Mearsheimer points out that there is no visible diplomatic path forward to settle this conflict, so escalation is the most likely outcome.
I disagree; the collapse of Russia is far closer and more likely. Russia is on a trajectory down the toilet plug, and that is a non-linear process, snowball is a good metaphor. Look at your armed forces capability now, compared to 23 FEB 22, look at who your friends are.. Eritrea can come and help... What do you escalate a Special Military Operation into? A really Special one?

Russia is on the precipice of losing the federation, It will start quietly and accelerate as the states that have been under Moscow's control determine that Moscow lost the plot, corrupted itself into ignominy and that there is no material gain to remaining a pet of Putin. the good ol' days of corruption will be coming home to roost soon enough.

Originally Posted by etudiant View Post
Of course, imho this is just the latest in the west's fratricidal wars which have opened the door to Asian dominance in world affairs. .
What "fratricide" are you referring to? You could use other adjectives but... fratricide? Huh? crazy person says what? https://www.google.com/search?q=frat...hrome&ie=UTF-8

Originally Posted by etudiant View Post
I don't think that these wars are desirable.
This isn't a "war" according to your death star commander, is Social Military Operation... oops Special Military Operation....

Otherwise, glad to actually agree if you mean naked criminal aggression against a neighboring country in violation of the UN Charter.

P.S.: you do know that Russia as a belligerent party has no vote in the UNSC on any matter pertaining to a conflict they are a party to? Time for reinforcement of global condemnation of Russia's habitual aggression against its neighbor states.
I speak a little Russian, perhaps Russia will invade whatever country I am in to "protect" me? You make comments previously about protecting "Russian speaking" people, yet English is spoken by over half the world's population, yet, England doesn't feel a need to invade France anymore... because some countries have evolved, others are stuck in their glorious memories of bygone greatness. In the meantime, your national resource in energy has been mainly siphoned off to the oligarchs rather than giving benefit to the nation. The time of oil revenue dependency is coming to a close for Russia, and then what grift are they going to use to keep occupied?

A protracted war was a possibility until Russia's performance amazed all with being so incompetent and so dependent on materiel and supply staggeringly compromised by endemic corruption.

On military aviation matters, I have more confidence in the survivability fo the A-10 in the field; the predicate that air superiority needed to be in hand has been made moot by the performance of the Russian air assets, which have very little interest in actually coming into contact with the air defenses of Ukraine. Conversely, MANPADS and AAA from the Russian side of the lines will be a threat, but was ever thus. The A-10 is a veritable point source of "shock 'n awwwww"; given the chance to demonstrate, I doubt that many Ukrainian pilots will not jump at the opportunity to invite the guests to leave the country in style. One thing that has come out of the Russian tactics is the lob toss of rockets; would think that the A-10 would be a solid platform to get some 2.75"s into the area with a modicum of discomfort to the recipients. The GAU-8 is memorable, acts as a disincentive to troops mulling over the merits of assisting the criminal actions of Putin or not. Just a couple of squadrons would be a good start. Yes, don't expect them to returned serviceable, but many of the drivers will get back.

The A-10 has high operational costs, certainly. But it has a level of survivability that is nearly unparalleled, and is available from an operator that has tried for years to kill it as a program. If someone has a few squadrons of Su-25's laying around with good munitions then that's a very good option, Ukraine has trained and competent Su-25 drivers already, the A-10 would not be an arduous transition should the Su-25 availability be constrained. Pretty sure Russia is unlikely to offer many to Ukraine....

Last edited by fdr; 26th Aug 2022 at 02:56.
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Old 26th Aug 2022, 03:31
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Yes, the level of corruption must be staggering, when the oligarchs murdered, stole and bribed their way into companies and took over, they reaped the fortunes they were making on yachts, homes, and art for themselves instead of reinvesting it into modernising and diversifying into goods that they could only buy from the opening up western markets, and just like the EU who sold their energy security down the river for the cheap Russian gas this is coming back to haunt them.
Their need for western electronics in their aircraft and main battle tanks etc is proving to be their Achilles heal, something thank God I believe the west has started to wake up to over the likes of China and Huawei being involved in our telecommunications systems.
I do hope the U.K. drops any plans to use them in the future and we all really need to look at our strategic suppliers for our core military and countrywide infrastructure ensuring if a war ever comes we will not be subject to the Vunerability the Europeans and Russia are finding themselves in with both energy and basic core parts used throughout industry, there is a lot to be said for homegrown.
Just look at the inability to ramp up military production the world over due to dumping production facilities and selling off parts of it means a rapid growth possibility has gone, the availability of machining equipment as an example is no longer there.

Last edited by NutLoose; 26th Aug 2022 at 03:42.
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Old 26th Aug 2022, 03:52
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Originally Posted by NutLoose View Post
I do hope the U.K. drops any plans to use them in the future
Might not be an issue, the discussion going around is that Huawai is fevorishly fighting to stave off bankruptcy atm.
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Old 26th Aug 2022, 03:55
  #8453 (permalink)  

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Originally Posted by NutLoose View Post
Just look at the inability to ramp up military production the world over due to dumping production facilities and selling off parts of it means a rapid growth possibility has gone, the availability of machining equipment as an example is no longer there.
One thing my Ma, who lived through the Blitz, always said when they closed a car plant, "Where will we build the tanks when we need to?" A simple argument, but so pertinent!
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Old 26th Aug 2022, 05:16
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Originally Posted by rattman View Post
Might not be an issue, the discussion going around is that Huawai is fevorishly fighting to stave off bankruptcy atm.
And who will then own them?

Last edited by Winemaker; 26th Aug 2022 at 05:18. Reason: english
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Old 26th Aug 2022, 05:43
  #8455 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Beamr View Post
Back in our regular program it appears that the HARM's in Ukraine aren't the latest batch.


https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status...89397980512257
How old were the torpedoes that sank the Belgrano ? If they work as intended, that's good enough.
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Old 26th Aug 2022, 06:45
  #8456 (permalink)  
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https://www.c4isrnet.com/newsletters...ile-launchers/

‘Vampire’ to transform Ukraine pickups into deadly missile launchers

WASHINGTON — The U.S. is sending Ukraine “Vampire” kits that transform pickup trucks and other non-tactical vehicles into highly portable missile launchers.

…..the Vehicle-Agnostic Modular Palletized ISR Rocket Equipment system is a portable kit that can be installed on most vehicles with a cargo bed for launching the Advanced Precision Kill Weapons System or other [email protected] munitions.

The L3Harris-made weapon ― a small, four-barreled rocket launcher and sensor ball ― can be mounted in two hours and operated by a single person, the company said. It can be equipped with missiles to hit ground or air targets including unmanned aircraft systems.

“The Vampire system itself is a counter-UAS system, ” said Colin Kahl, undersecretary of defense for policy, said at a press briefing Wednesday. “It is a kinetic system that uses small missiles essentially to shoot UAVs out of the sky.”

While the Vampire system isn’t advertised as a counter-drone weapon on L3Harris’ website, Ukraine has used similar munition-style weapons to take down drones throughout its conflict with Russia…..

The Biden administration selected the Vampire — a low-cost and easy-to-assemble weapon compared to other counter-drone measures, such as electronic warfare technologies — for a package advertised as providing supplies for Ukraine’s long-term needs.

“We’re trying to be very deliberate about what systems we think makes the most sense for Ukraine to have in that context, and it also matters very much: Can they sustain it? Can they afford it? Because of course billions of dollars of international assistance may not be something 10 years from now or 20 years from now,” Kahl said….

APKWS: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanc..._Weapon_System
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Old 26th Aug 2022, 06:45
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Originally Posted by B Fraser View Post
How old were the torpedoes that sank the Belgrano ? If they work as intended, that's good enough.
They used them because they knew they would work
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Old 26th Aug 2022, 07:27
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It’s not just what people think that matters, but how they think

Re T28B, #8450 ‘information of dubious merit

Debunking Handbook

https://skepticalscience.com/docs/De...dbook_2011.pdf
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Old 26th Aug 2022, 08:01
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We've all seen plenty of these videos already where russkies MBT's blow up due to crew doing something idiotic so there is nothing new in this video. And that is actually the problem for them: I am overwhelmed by the scale of being stupid within the RuAF and how incredibly incompetent they are, It's as if they weren't trained at all and they would be missing even the slightest common sense. And it has been so since the war started, the day one.

There is no way they can keep up with this despite vast resources and being a military superpower (well, at least on paper). What springs to mind is that even though they are holding a fifth of Ukraine currently the collapse of RuAF will be sudden and violent once it happens.



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Old 26th Aug 2022, 08:15
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Originally Posted by rattman View Post
They used them because they knew they would work
It has been stated that if we had used the store of WW2 Barrage Balloons we might not have lost so many ships.
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