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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Old 7th Aug 2022, 22:44
  #7681 (permalink)  
 
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Ukrainian airforce alluding to something or just **** stirring


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Old 7th Aug 2022, 23:25
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I would say the answer is yes.
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Old 8th Aug 2022, 00:22
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
No typo, I added it in after I wrote the post but before uploading it to take out any ambiguity.
I think it was near Baghdad and was a strengthened building, they launched from if I remember correctly out at sea a couple of missiles, one was to punch a hole through the building wall and the other then flew through the hole and hit the generators inside. Precision weapons hadn’t been factored into the building and up until then just about everyone wouldn’t have thought you could put another through the hole of the first.
Agree entirely that this dual warhead approach is operationally practiced methodology,
In this case, who on earth would want to. This is the largest nuclear plant in Europe, at least .three times the size and contaminant content of Fukushima.
Imho it is insane to even think of this as a military target.

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Old 8th Aug 2022, 02:00
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Originally Posted by etudiant
Agree entirely that this dual warhead approach is operationally practiced methodology,
In this case, who on earth would want to. This is the largest nuclear plant in Europe, at least .three times the size and contaminant content of Fukushima.
Imho it is insane to even think of this as a military target.
And who's making it a military target? Since you can't guess, the answer starts with Russkies.
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Old 8th Aug 2022, 06:32
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I have no idea if this is true or will ever happen, but according to Russian state media North Korea has offered 100000 "volunteers" to fight for Kremlin in Ukraine. With N. Korean made weapons (I have personally no idea what is the quality of DPRK made weapons, but most likely not as good as Russian).

article by the New York Post.

https://nypost.com/2022/08/05/russia...100000-troops/
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Old 8th Aug 2022, 06:37
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Originally Posted by ORAC
I presume the ones being press-ganged in Donetsk and Luhansk don't count....
No they don't. They had the opportunity to leave 8 years ago and since, when the press ganging started. Most people left for Russia or Ukraine.
By staying they volunteered and this is exactly how Russia is treating them.
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Old 8th Aug 2022, 06:50
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excellent interview with Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, founded in 1997. Pukhov is quite closely affiliated with the Russian Ministry of Defence and is a member of the board of experts within the government of the Russian Federation.

Pukhov in detail goes over the advantages and weak points of both the Ukrainian and the Russian armed forces and offers a sober view of the current situation with the Western weapon supplies to Ukraine. At 2,500 words, the interview is fairly long, but reads well and offers a unique perspective not typical to the usual Russian sources. The original interview in the Russian language is available here.


https://wartranslated.com/russian-de...apon-supplies/
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Old 8th Aug 2022, 07:06
  #7688 (permalink)  
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An interview with Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies. Pukhov is quite closely affiliated with the Russian MoD and is a member of the board of experts within the gov-t of the RF.

https://wartranslated.com/russian-de...apon-supplies/

Russian Defence Research Expert on AFU performance, the effect of Western weapon supplies
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Old 8th Aug 2022, 09:28
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Originally Posted by peter we
No they don't. They had the opportunity to leave 8 years ago and since, when the press ganging started. Most people left for Russia or Ukraine.
By staying they volunteered and this is exactly how Russia is treating them.
This is outrageously wrong as a generalisation. I am hosting a Ukrainian refugee whose family are from Donbas - a town near Sieverodonetsk. They are primarily Ukrainian speakers although, of course, they also (used to) speak Russian. Although they were begged (my guest's word) to leave at the very beginning of the war they were reluctant to leave their home and unable to believe that the current situation could possibly happen. These are well educated and capable people. For a considerable period they were effectively imprisoned in a partially destroyed home lacking all utilities. Cars leaving for western Ukraine were routinely destroyed and their occupants killed. One grandparent is over 90 years old and extremely disabled. Fortunately it was eventually possible to extract them to the west of the country.
Is it that surprising that people like these were reluctant to leave their homes - not least because they were probably the only asset that they owned? There's a great deal more that I could say about the above but it's not for public consumption. There's an appalling lack of empathy with the victims of the war that is starting to emerge here in the UK, where many, if not most, people think that the economic impact on their relatively safe and manageable lifestyles is far more serious than a major war in Europe.
Unfortunately I believe we are currently experiencing the early tremors of an earthquake which is going to change "Western" civilisation. Assuming there will be much left of it.
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Old 8th Aug 2022, 09:46
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Good man, I would too if I had the facilities, although it's hitting me financially, support needs to be done and in greater numbers, the cost of Ukraine falling will be significantly more. My regards to the family you are hosting and tell them to stay strong.
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Old 8th Aug 2022, 10:40
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Quoted in a number of newsfeeds. I cannot find the original russian source though.

TDLR:The Russian occupiers announced that they had mined the Zaporizhzhia NPP and are ready to blow it up. Head of the radiation, chemical and biological defense troops of the Russian armed forces, Major General Valery Vasiliev, who now commands the Zaporizhia NPP garrison, said."The enemy knows that the plant will be either Russian or no one's. We are ready for the consequences of this step."

https://censor.net/en/news/3359281/r...ant_energoatom
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Old 8th Aug 2022, 11:12
  #7692 (permalink)  
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Seems to be the origin -Energoatom, the z Ukrainian nuclear power plant operating agency.




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Old 8th Aug 2022, 11:48
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The commander of the troops of radiation, chemical and biological protection from the Russian Federation, Major General Valery Vasiliev, said that "There will be either Russian land or a scorched desert"
Glad he never specified the Country, I would imagine that would be tanatamount to using a nuclear weapon in Ukraine and the Russian land and scorched desert he is talking about may well be his homeland as that would I assume cross the redline..
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Old 8th Aug 2022, 11:50
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Originally Posted by skridlov
This is outrageously wrong as a generalisation. I am hosting a Ukrainian refugee whose family are from Donbas - a town near Sieverodonetsk. They are primarily Ukrainian speakers although, of course, they also (used to) speak Russian. Although they were begged (my guest's word) to leave at the very beginning of the war they were reluctant to leave their home and unable to believe that the current situation could possibly happen. These are well educated and capable people. For a considerable period they were effectively imprisoned in a partially destroyed home lacking all utilities. Cars leaving for western Ukraine were routinely destroyed and their occupants killed. One grandparent is over 90 years old and extremely disabled. Fortunately it was eventually possible to extract them to the west of the country.
Is it that surprising that people like these were reluctant to leave their homes - not least because they were probably the only asset that they owned? There's a great deal more that I could say about the above but it's not for public consumption. There's an appalling lack of empathy with the victims of the war that is starting to emerge here in the UK, where many, if not most, people think that the economic impact on their relatively safe and manageable lifestyles is far more serious than a major war in Europe.
Unfortunately I believe we are currently experiencing the early tremors of an earthquake which is going to change "Western" civilisation. Assuming there will be much left of it.
it's not wrong as a generalisation. The 2014 invasion resulted in a poverty struck region where millions of young (basically) people left for Russia or Ukraine to avoid the war and wages half that of Ukraine. The region is funded by pension payments from people who don't want to move because yhey are are too old or incapable and those who decided to stay to help them. I don't understand the logic of staying in a war zone if you can possibly move, unless you support the regime. If you really don't want to get called up you should run away.
I note your family didn't move even when begged to do so, were Ukrainian yet chose to stay in Russian occupied territory, knowing what the Russians are like.
edit:
Sieverodonetsk was only recently occupied so why did you even mention this? We were discussing the areas occupied iin 2014. Anyone eligible to be mobilised in Ukraine was so in Feb 2022. By Ukraine.
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Old 8th Aug 2022, 11:52
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Re Pukhov’s understanding above. An insightful read, (and not too long!) @ Peter we and ORAC. Thank you.
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Old 8th Aug 2022, 11:54
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Yes, a good read. Thanks
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Old 8th Aug 2022, 12:00
  #7697 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Beamr
I have no idea if this is true or will ever happen, but according to Russian state media North Korea has offered 100000 "volunteers" to fight for Kremlin in Ukraine. With N. Korean made weapons (I have personally no idea what is the quality of DPRK made weapons, but most likely not as good as Russian).

article by the New York Post.

https://nypost.com/2022/08/05/russia...100000-troops/
That seems to belie a Special Shopping Operation or whatever the justification is today. Would be an interesting learning point for all concerned. NK would certainly need to bring their own kit. However, FRed team has a shambolic supply chain, logistics seems to still be awaiting Murmansk convoys to run on up to give their troops any supplies. So, NK is going to move, what, X thousand tanks, tubes n trucks across that wonderful autobahn that Siberia has made famous. Would be an outstanding reason to provide full capability in ranges to take out all off the MSR access from Russia into all of Ukraines East n sough, including Crimea.

The Death Stars leader is not prepared to call a blatant act of war exactly what it is, his ego prohibits doing that; and instead he is going to get assistance from a group that the Russians need to save their butt? Maybe, It would be a loss of face of gargantuan proportions, and, if Ukraine still kicks their butts which is not out of the question, (Russia is not going to stop at any border if they are a roll... ) how would Kim 3.0 go with his southern neighbours when they are shown to be as effective as Russia's much vaunted armoured forces. At least 100,000 NKs would get some food but lord knows where that would be sourced.
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Old 8th Aug 2022, 12:17
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Originally Posted by fdr
Would be an interesting learning point for all concerned. NK would certainly need to bring their own kit. However, FRed team has a shambolic supply chain, logistics seems to still be awaiting Murmansk convoys to run on up to give their troops any supplies. .
My skepticism of the 100,000 number is substantial. The Russians are having a devil of a time logistically supporting their own troops now, NK's armed forced are not built / structured for global ops (heck, most nations' armed forces are not) so NK isn't going to have the wherewithal to support 100K troops thousands of miles away.
While I don't think it wise to rule out an expeditionary force being offered (as an example, El Salvador offered up a unit to help for the Coalition in Iraq, serving with the Spanish Legion) I will guess that a deployment by rail from NK through Russia would be able to support a few brigades.
But, here's the kicker: what if the Chinese agree to pony up a bit of resources to provide support to this deployment? Pure speculation here, but that would change the art of the possible somewhat.
That story might also be complete moonshine.
Korotchenko was notably interested in what he called the North Korean’s “wealth of experience with counter-battery warfare” — a telling remark given reports of Ukraine’s long-range artillery success since acquiring US-made HIMARS rocket systems in June. “If North Korea expresses a desire to meet its international duty to fight against Ukrainian fascism, we should let them,” Korotchenko said.
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Old 8th Aug 2022, 12:19
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And one would assume you would struggle to get them to go home again afterwards, regardless of the outcome.
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Old 8th Aug 2022, 12:29
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Well I doubt that an average North Korean conscript is as fit and healthy as the relatively elite border guard who defected.

He had dozens of parasitic worms , tuberculosis , and Hep B

https://edition.cnn.com/2017/12/04/h...ntl/index.html

They are all so starved they have their own version of Light Infantry

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