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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 30th Jul 2022, 18:57
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https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2022/0...er-heavy-fire/

New problems also arose with the replenishment of ammunition for the Gepard anti-aircraft tank, the first five systems of which were recently delivered to Ukraine, according to the report. During test firings in Germany, it turned out that the Gepard firing system did not recognize the ammunition of a Norwegian manufacturer, so the shells now have to be improved. The modified ammunition is due to be tested again in August.
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Old 30th Jul 2022, 19:49
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CIA/MI6 estimate Russian losses at 100 000 - 125 000 KIA/WIA. Says there is no significant reaction from the people because the dead come from ethnic minorities far away on the frontiers , rather than middle-class families in St Petersburg and Moscow

https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland...124344710.html
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Old 30th Jul 2022, 19:52
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2022/0...er-heavy-fire/

New problems also arose with the replenishment of ammunition for the Gepard anti-aircraft tank, the first five systems of which were recently delivered to Ukraine, according to the report. During test firings in Germany, it turned out that the Gepard firing system did not recognize the ammunition of a Norwegian manufacturer, so the shells now have to be improved. The modified ammunition is due to be tested again in August.
Damn. just like an Audi TT gearbox not recognising anything that doesn't cost a VW fortune
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Old 31st Jul 2022, 07:59
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan View Post
-

Any link for that ?
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Old 31st Jul 2022, 09:15
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Thanks for that. Do you have any idea when the WTD made this finding ?
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Old 31st Jul 2022, 09:54
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan View Post
Thanks for that. Do you have any idea when the WTD made this finding ?
No, can't read German, so it's hard to search. Twitter messages suggest that it's a known issue dealt with by not using this ammunition or send it to the workshop every 4 weeks, hence the new service centre in Poland.

There was also an issue in Afghanistan with the temperature of the water cooling.
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Old 31st Jul 2022, 10:03
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Rough translation: It's about teething troubles with a new type of ammunition in case of steep fire. The ammunition seems to move slightly backwards inside the barrel causing unexpected pressure and wear at places not made for it. This was reported during early test and evaluation but is not solved yet.
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Old 31st Jul 2022, 10:25
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Originally Posted by Less Hair View Post
Rough translation: It's about teething troubles with a new type of ammunition in case of steep fire. The ammunition seems to move slightly backwards inside the barrel causing unexpected pressure and wear at places not made for it. This was reported during early test and evaluation but is not solved yet.
It's not new ammunition, 2009 purchase and very expensive.

https://defense-and-freedom.********...llery.html?m=1
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Old 31st Jul 2022, 10:42
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Ukraine 'peeing' on Russia's parade?

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...hq-2022-07-31/

Bless them, they seem a bit upset their Navy Day has been ruined.
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Old 31st Jul 2022, 11:01
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It's not new ammunition, 2009 purchase and very expensive.
I tried to help. If you know better don't ask.
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Old 31st Jul 2022, 12:10
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Originally Posted by peter we View Post
It's not new ammunition, 2009 purchase and very expensive.

https://defense-and-freedom.********...llery.html?m=1
That order was for 30 000 pcs costing E 63 000 000 (E 2 100 pc )

There was a further order placed in 2019 with Rheinmetall for another 32 000 pcs with a value of E 109 000 000 ( E 3 400 per pc ) I'm unsure if that's expensive or not. The special aspect of the shell is that the explosive is very resistant to exploding other than when fired, so protects crew against sympathetic explosion in SPG. The twitter link says that the problem is due to the shell sliding backwards under its own weight after loading when the barrel is elevated, which seems to indicate a problem of incorrect manufacturing tolerances, which seems inexplicable especially since this SPG was first produced in 1996.

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Old 31st Jul 2022, 12:23
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Originally Posted by The Helpful Stacker View Post
Bless them, they seem a bit upset their Navy Day has been ruined.
When i read this in another paper, I wondered what kind of drone, as I would have thought the missiles from a Bayraktar drone would have caused more casualties. The following quote from The Guardian indicates a small, "retail-type" drone was used, so that means local insurgency in Sevastopol. I hope those responsible can avoid the FSB and carry out more good work. They have certainly won a major PR victory with celebrations in Sevastopol being cancelled and the population being advised to stay indoors.

"Six injured after Ukrainian drone flies into Russian Black Sea fleet HQ, reports say

AP reports that the drone that flew into the Russian headquarters of its Black Sea fleet has injured six people.

We reported earlier that five people were wounded, but the Sevastopol mayor, Mikhail Razvozzhaev, has said six people were injured in the blast.

The Black Sea fleet’s press service said the drone appeared to be homemade and described the explosive device as “low power”. "


https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...latest-updates
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Old 31st Jul 2022, 12:42
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Olenivka POW massacre thread

1) it wasn't a GMLRS rocket
2) it was a thermobaric weapon
3) russia staged it and did so (as usual) incompetently….



Last edited by ORAC; 31st Jul 2022 at 13:21.
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Old 31st Jul 2022, 12:54
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Ammunition storage area, owned by company with a history of supplying Ukraine, experienced a small explosion and a fire this morning. Suspicion of Russian involvement, if so they failed to trigger a major explosion.

Site now being inspected by drones to see if it is safe to enter.

If Russia explosives are shown to have been used it will be the first Russian attack on NATO territory during the war.

https://bnr.bg/en/post/101684253/fir...lties-reported

Last edited by ORAC; 31st Jul 2022 at 13:23. Reason: Sp
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Old 31st Jul 2022, 14:13
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Ammunition storage area, owned by company with a history of supplying Ukraine, experienced a small explosion and a fire this morning. Suspicion of Russian involvement, if so they failed to trigger a major explosion.

Site now being inspected by drones to see if it is safe to enter.

If Russia explosives are shown to have been used it will be the first Russian attack on NATO territory during the war.



https://bnr.bg/en/post/101684253/fir...lties-reported
If it's proven there was Russian involvement, Article 5 would apply wouldn't it?

Although I would imagine elements within NATO, that are far more dependant upon Russian gas, would do all they could to lay the blame on Russian 'irregular forces' acting without sanction from the Kremlin.
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Old 31st Jul 2022, 14:21
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Originally Posted by The Helpful Stacker View Post
If it's proven there was Russian involvement, Article 5 would apply wouldn't it?
.
I don't imagine so. Nobody mentioned that in relation to the Salisbury poisonings. Unless it's a bomber with red stars or a missile fired from Russian soil, then any decision will be a long time in coming and the time delay makes any decision far less likely to be military retaliation.
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Old 31st Jul 2022, 15:54
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Interesting turn of events in Sevastopol drone attack.

The Ukrainian navy has denied the drone attack is their doing and has put forward the theory that is was a Russian drone. Their reasoning is that the Russians feared that a naval "regatta" as is traditional for Russian Fleet Day would give Ukraine an unparalleled opportunity to launch an attack on their ships, and they therefore chose this diversionary manoeuvre which gave them an excuse to call things off.

Possible I suppose. When I read about this this morning, I thought it was over the top of the Russians to cancel everything because of a small drone attack.

https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland...126889867.html
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Old 31st Jul 2022, 16:10
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Geez… demining efforts for the brave.

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Old 31st Jul 2022, 16:41
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Lots of drone stuff here...

https://gagadget.com/en/144986-ukrai...r-shell-video/
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Old 31st Jul 2022, 18:01
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Ammunition storage area, owned by company with a history of supplying Ukraine, experienced a small explosion and a fire this morning. Suspicion of Russian involvement, if so they failed to trigger a major explosion.
Site now being inspected by drones to see if it is safe to enter.
If Russia explosives are shown to have been used it will be the first Russian attack on NATO territory during the war.
https://bnr.bg/en/post/101684253/fir...lties-reported
Interesting observation farther down that link about a fifth column explosion in Czech republic.


Originally Posted by The Helpful Stacker View Post
If it's proven there was Russian involvement, Article 5 would apply wouldn't it?
Real life isn't a video game. Article V protections aren't some "if this then that - automatically" idiot switch. But they do include planning, and prep, and training together for a variety of security contingencies that make the collective defense both coherent and achievable as well as timely - if the Atlantic Council (now 30 nations) agrees that it needs to do X, Y, or Z.
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