Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[henra]

Originally Posted by Beamr

These videos aren't nice, especially since that specific video made suffering a comedy. That is wrong.

That was my point. This is not comedy. This is tragedy.
Even for many/most of the individual Russian soldiers (Wagner/Chechen thugs excluded they are there fully knowing what they signed). And Yes, they did sign the paper themselves. Did the average regular Army Soldier think they would ever go to war? I'm sure, No. Russian regular Army has seen very little to no combat in the last 75 years (and it shows by their inexperience and lacking proficiency). >>90% of the dirty messing Russia did in the last decades was by rather 'irregular' troops plus a tiny bit of Air Force. Main exception being the Helicopter crews in Afghanistan back in the day.

[wondering]

UKR needs a lot more heavy gear to push back RU. A few HIMARS and arty pieces don´t change the fundamental metrics. RU still has a lot more. Otherwise, UKR keeps loosing too many soldiers just trying to hold off RU.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/08/...gainst-russia/

I hope, I am wrong. But, the published RU combat losses by UKR look inflated. Definitely too high for aircraft and helicopters.

https://static.euromaidanpress.com/w...-172754-2.jpeg

[fdr]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

I must admit I have wondered if this is the Ukrainians plan for a while, make a big play for Kherson drawing Russian troops from elsewhere to bottle them up by dropping bridges and taking out their supply dumps and resupply lines thus rendering them less combat effective while maintaining the ability to accurately hit high value targets,
Thus while the other areas especially around the likes of Izyum, allow the Ukrainians a breathing space and the ability to stall the Russian advance by pushing on Izyum and cutting off the Russian main supply route into the region.

Nutty, you could be right, but the UF would need pretty good C&C and unimpeded supply chains to pull of something like that off. The lead up to Kherson was pretty much the antithesis of any of the Sun Tzu mantra's... hard to have the advantage of surprise when you are sending the plan to the Red Team by all mediums. About the only thing that doesn't rely on surprise is long range arty, and even then, it is a factor as stats show, the first salvo does the harm, the recipients are big on getting into cover otherwise. (the reason the PzH2K fires 5 rounds with simultaneous TOT).

A run to Izium and cutoff of the Red Teams NE MSR would be a pretty gutsy move...

The UF have shown an ability to be effective at interdiction, matching the Red Teams own goal on the train set with their own bit of mayhem on munitions trains. As difficult as things have been in the field for the UF, the C&C of the Team Bled has been pretty patchy, being short by 1000 officers of various flavours probably helps there.Pushing ground troops into Kherson right now without having depleted the Team Rouge's ammo would be difficult. The defence is still doing work well above their weight, but need more assistance from those that benefit from their standing the wall for the rest of us ingrates.

The Vermillions are still left with a problem in Kherson, their shortest supply route is pretty banged up, and the other options are limited and exposed too. The option for an Incheon moment has more or less gone to the bottom of the Black Sea, not before time.

Prefer that Puteen just decides to go home and tend to his flock there, as it does appear that the ball of wool that is the RF today is starting to get decidedly raggedy around the edges. there is a real risk that the overextended RF can no longer hold the union of love and kindness together, which should make for a need for lots of popcorn. At the rate that the carmines are going they will at least save on voting costs for the next celebration of Krimmin power, they will have Moscow and... St Pete's, and the rest of the great land will be looking towards their own independence from the yokels in the big cerise shed with the pointy roofs.

Russia is able to make threats that they have made since Sting made songs about their antics, China has the wheels coming off the rickshaw at an accelerating pace, and adds more reasons for the global supply chain to reset to countries that are less intent on pi$$ing off their customers and neighbours while endeavouring to support despotic Dear Leaders.

There were apparently some northerners in Formosa some 6,000 years back, but they didn't stay, they then returned to cause some mischief 5,500 years later, and then handed it over to the dudes from the land of far far away, who barely did anything to it. Post the antics of Mr & Mrs Mao, CKS and his band actually made something of the place, and it is a pretty darn neat place today. PRC has their hands full redoing the wheel nuts on the rickshaw, Taiwan adds nothing to their resume, and it alienates their faltering wonder economy from those that actually made that possible. "there be dragons... ".

[ORAC]

that was long ago. They were withdrawn pretty quickly.

I presume the ones being press-ganged in Donetsk and Luhansk don't count....

[jolihokistix]

Fdr quote: “and then handed it over to the dudes from the land of far far away, who barely did anything to it.”

Apparently they turned the arid eastern quarters into fertile agricultural lands inter alia, which is one of the many reasons the two countries have such a close relationship today.

[Tartiflette Fan]

Originally Posted by ORAC

I would suspect you have no idea what you are talking abou?

An aircraft is designed for light weight to slice through the air, a shell is designed to penetrate concrete with explosive plasma jets to severe steel let alone a few inches of concrete.

Bottom line - the containment vessel is easily penetrated - and the external cooling systems and ponds are obviou and unprotected.

You are right that I have no special knowledge but I was paraphrasing articles I had read. The Swiss publication below confirms that , although there are seemingly more incremental changes than I remembered.


https://www.ensi.ch/de/2011/11/04/ke...zeugabstuerze/ (partial translation "Nuclear power plants are sufficiently protected against aircraft impact " )

"a shell is designed to penetrate concrete with explosive plasma jets to severe steel let alone a few inches of concrete."

When you write this, you are also venturing outside your sphere of expertise. What you describe there is a shaped-charge war-head which is, as far as I have been able to find out, not used in field-artillery. The reason is obvious: this is an indirect fire weapon and until now the accuracy simply wasn't there, and using such charges would have been sheer waste. Artillery shells are normally designed to kill and destroy with blast and/or shrapnel, or possibly distribute sub-munitions
i.e. spreading the effect of the explosion rather than concentrating it.

[ORAC]

What you describe there is a shaped-charge war-head which is, as far as I have been able to find out, not used in field-artillery.

I presume Russia will have an equivalent, even if not publicised.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SMArt_155

SMart 155 armour piercing artillery shell. Believed in use by Ukraine, or the French equivalent.

https://mezha.media/en/2022/07/12/sm...-or-155-bonus/

SMArt 155 or 155 BONUS? The Armed Forces use very interesting high-precision projectiles to destroy the enemy

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/army...tillery-shell/

[ORAC]

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...854499328.html

How has the Russian army responded to the huge casualties it's suffered in Ukraine? For a bonus 🧵, I'll draw once more on @wartranslated's archive of translated phone calls by Russian soldiers, which have been intercepted and published by the Ukrainians.

——————-

Original Twitter thread with links to his previous threads..

https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/stat...8piuZoFAvU0FvQ

[Tartiflette Fan]

Originally Posted by ORAC

I presume Russia will have an equivalent, even if not publicised.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SMArt_155

SMart 155 armour piercing artillery shell. Believed in use by Ukraine, or the French equivalent.

https://mezha.media/en/2022/07/12/sm...-or-155-bonus/

SMArt 155 or 155 BONUS? The Armed Forces use very interesting high-precision projectiles to destroy the enemy

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/army...tillery-shell/

If you read the initial comment to which I replied ( below) you will see that the talk is (by implication ) of dumb rounds, thus rounds using advanced sensor systems which would obviously not be targeting the containment, are not relevant. just to add however, the shells you cite are using sub-munitions to target tank top-armour (50-70 mm thick ? ) and I don't believe that would be capable of penetrating 700 mm of reinforced concrete. In the hugely unlikely event it did, it would be a pinprick and there would be no tears as Lonewolf speculated.

"Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 View Post
All it takes is one round to fall short and it ends in tears."

[jolihokistix]

I am sure there is redundancy but how vulnerable would a cooling pipe be?

[Winemaker]

According to the International Atomic Energy Agency

RBMK reactors do not have what is known as a containment structure, a concrete and steel dome over the reactor itself designed to keep radiation inside the plant in the event of such an accident.

Chernobyl reactors were/are RBMK machines so damage protection would depend on which type of reactor is being shot at.....

[NutLoose]

Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50

Don't you mean the Israelis? The US blew up a lot of stuff in Iraq, but a nuclear plant wasn't one of them.

read it again and note the word NONE

[ORAC]

Is there a Russian general somewhere saying “There seems to be something wrong with our bloody tanks today.”….

https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status...POzDozN5ubJc2g

[NutLoose]

If there was ever a need for the west to intervene this is it. It also makes you think, with all the bluster, Russia sending troops and armour etc into the Kherson region, why would they need to mine it unless the fear losing it and the area.

Twitter

[mickjoebill]

A Ukraine PR video seeking to raise funds for drones.
80 Matrice 300 models just delivered to accelerate a formal army drone program. (Ballpark specs, US$10k, 2.7kg payload, 55 min endurance depending on variant) They hope to have 1000.
I'm just completing drone pilot licence at mo and I reckon there will be no problem training soldiers.

​​​​​​A UK analyst has stated these multirotor drones in general will have negligible impact on the war.

But both lowing of cost of stabilised thermal imaging modules and improvements in power density of battery has recently occured, the tech is moving fast.

So my question is, will these factors result in development of new lightweight gravity munitions? Maybe innovative munitions that don't necessarily rely on a blast effect to disrupt the enemy?
WIll both weapons designers and their CFOs begin sharpening their pencils when delivery systems number the '000s?

You Tube

Mjb

[fdr]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

If there was ever a need for the west to intervene this is it. It also makes you think, with all the bluster, Russia sending troops and armour etc into the Kherson region, why would they need to mine it unless the fear losing it and the area.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/...C-1fWjzJcrAAAA

That is definitely getting into the bad sports column, and it is nuclear terrorism. Hard to argue that it isn't a terrorist action by the state of Russia.

There are 6 x VVER1000 water-water energetic reactors. They do have a containment structure before some criminal terrorist organization starts blowing up the containment or takes out the water feed. It is similar to PWRs found elsewhere and at least got rid of the PVC problem that the RBMK reactors of Chornobyl brought to light. They are water moderated so that has some level of safety, but of course, removal of the water coolant is going to go quickly to a corium outcome, and that's if Europe, the Middle East, Asia Minor, and Russia are lucky. It uses zirconium-clad fuel rods, so that is going to give a high probability of containment failure á la Fukushima, from a hydrogen explosion. Nuclear safety doesn't account for that level of terrorist involvement in damaging the reactors.

Last time Chornobyl at least had the opportunity for some mitigation, which cost the lives of.... 31 by the Soviet and Russian govt accounts, or thousands by the rest of the available sources (4k-60k). What is certain is that a major containment failure will deposit buckets of kBq worth of 137Cs and similar goodies all around the area, dependent on the wind fields for the immediate event and the continuing fallout until contained. In the middle of criminal action by Russia, that could be some time, it is apparent that Russia has zero concern for its own soldiers' health (digging foxholes around Chornobyl etc) and they certainly could care less for any other people in the area they are supposedly "liberating" or other neighboring countries. In peacetime, some mitigation can be expected, in Russia's special criminal enterprise, it would take a change of attitude to care at all about their people or others. Given the gross incompetence of the Red Team, a disaster at this NPP could easily exceed the 1986 effort by their former glorious leaders. Check windy.com and have a look at the direction of the winds at various levels.

Now, destruction and loss of containment will kill a lot of those close by, it is improbable that an evacuation would be managed by the gang that couldn't shoot straight to minimize fatalities. The same gang for the same reasons is unlikely to have the wherewithal to limit contamination. (refer to foxhole diggers above...). The spread would mean the 1MBq level would likely be extensive, and that has a long-term death rate of around 5% for that level of exposure to ionizing radiation. That will at least assure Mr Putin gets his name in print for the next 20,000 years, (Stalin, Hitler, Bubonic Plague, Putin, Ebola).

Putin owns his puppy poop: "...you break it, you bought it..."

This risks a situation that could reasonably be an attack on NATO, if a deliberate act by Mr Putin results in contamination and deaths in any NATO country.

It is well beyond time to get the fat backsides sliding off their comfortable chairs in the UN HQ and get them to do their #$%@$ job. Russia is not permitted under the rules to vote on any UNSC matter that they are a direct party to.

Countries that would be severely affected by a loss of containment:

• Romania
• Bulgaria
• Turkey (forget about visiting Istanbul or Ankara for the next 20,000 years)
• Ukraine
  • Crimea (20,000 years, in almost all cases)
  • Donbas (good for nothing for the next 20,000 years, so Russia, enjoy that outcome)
    • Luhansk
    • Donetsk
    • etc
• Russia
  • Rostov on Don,
  • Novosrossiysk
  • Volgograd
  • Astrakhan
  • Sochi
• Azerbaijan
  • Baku
• Georgia
  • Tblisi
• South Ossetia (thanks, Vlad!)
• Turkmenistan
• Uzbekistan
  • Tashkent
• Tajikistan
  • Dushanbe
• Kazakhstan
  • Aktau
  • Almaty
• Kyrgystan
  • Bishkek
• N & W China

& points east

FL180/ 500mb


F340/250mb

[ORAC]

Erdogan helping Putin evade economic sanctions - and doubtless help Turkey with its own economic problems.

Bloomberg: 5 Turkish banks adopt Russian payment system.

After a meeting with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin in Sochi, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said “there are serious developments regarding the work that Turkish banks are doing on Russia’s Mir payment system."

[Kent Based]

Talking of concrete pentration by 155mm dumb rounds, here's a useful example of ww2 era testing. There's an average pentration of 3 feet on concrete reinforced pillboxes. Sometimes much more than 2 metres was achieved.

https://www.alternatewars.com/WW2/Do...5-FEB-1944.htm

Concrete containment shields on nuclear plants seem to be around 2 metres thick.

[ORAC]

You Tube

[meleagertoo]

Note though that the steel plates are only an inch or so thick and sandwiched between far more bulky slabs of something (polystyrene perhaps).
They're trying to make it look as if they're penetrating fifteen feet of steel plate. They aren't. More like ten inches.
That demo is nowhere near as impressive as it appears at first glance.