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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 31st Aug 2022, 12:07
  #8681 (permalink)  
 
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With the UKR counter offensive now in full swing, I think it has a lot more to do with not accidentally giving your enemy any useful information. There will sadly be losses on both sides but I tend to think that the Russians will come off a lot worse!
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Old 31st Aug 2022, 12:15
  #8682 (permalink)  
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This is one of the key indicators I have been looking for that Russian Artillery has "hit the wall" in terms lacking logistical capability to go on.

Barrel liners have to be replaced regularly or you destroy the artillery barrels…..

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...877213701.html
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Old 31st Aug 2022, 12:21
  #8683 (permalink)  
 
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Some movement in the field apparently

twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1564932134544052225
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Old 31st Aug 2022, 13:04
  #8684 (permalink)  
 
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I know its off season but how would you like a holiday in somewhere that is hot at the moment?

The Russian Federation plans to strengthen the defence of Crimea with residents of Moscow and St. Petersburg, as well as military personnel. Source: Chief Intelligence Directorate, information provided by the press service of the Ministry of Defence
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Old 31st Aug 2022, 13:21
  #8685 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by rattman View Post
why would you expect anything else. These are large amount of rookie troops going against entrenched positions, exactly the same as what the russians have been required to do. Theres going to be big a body count on the ukrainian side
Probably, unless they can get local air superiority.
Originally Posted by FUMR View Post
With the UKR counter offensive now in full swing, I think it has a lot more to do with not accidentally giving your enemy any useful information. There will sadly be losses on both sides but I tend to think that the Russians will come off a lot worse!
We'll see.
As to the Twittersphere: good job locking the journos out. As much of a good idea as 'embedded reporters' can be, it's also a risk which has been amplified by the Twittersphere (in a way that had not yet manifested when imbedding with troops in Iraq was done). OPSEC is important.
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Old 31st Aug 2022, 13:37
  #8686 (permalink)  
 
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Nutloose's twitterlink in 8686 is exactly the sort of thing UKR is trying to avoid. Geolocated it is one link in the overall intelligence chain. Dark means just that.

Unless, of course, it is a deliberate tweet to mislead.
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Old 31st Aug 2022, 15:38
  #8687 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Fitter2 View Post
Nutloose's twitterlink in 8686 is exactly the sort of thing UKR is trying to avoid. Geolocated it is one link in the overall intelligence chain. Dark means just that.

Unless, of course, it is a deliberate tweet to mislead.
Unfortunately "ITK" is the TLA that most armchair military 'specialists' seem to care about and my, do they like to flex their knowledge, regardless of potential consequences.
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Old 31st Aug 2022, 16:04
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
This is one of the key indicators I have been looking for that Russian Artillery has "hit the wall" in terms lacking logistical capability to go on.

Barrel liners have to be replaced regularly or you destroy the artillery barrels…..

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...877213701.html
On that topic, its a bitch when this happens to you...
when it happens to russkies its quite alright


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Old 31st Aug 2022, 16:28
  #8689 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by The Helpful Stacker View Post
Unfortunately "ITK" is the TLA that most armchair military 'specialists' seem to care about and my, do they like to flex their knowledge, regardless of potential consequences.
A later post says they are in the positions they are in as it is a suspected minefield so are following in the APC tracks.

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Old 31st Aug 2022, 18:13
  #8690 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose View Post
A later post says they are in the positions they are in as it is a suspected minefield so are following in the APC tracks.
Not sure why you're responding to me. I'm not doubting the information in the Twitter post, just commenting on the amount of people posting stuff on social media who are seemingly desperate to be seen as 'in the know' (ITK).
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Old 31st Aug 2022, 19:06
  #8691 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 View Post
Probably, unless they can get local air superiority.
We'll see.
As to the Twittersphere: good job locking the journos out. As much of a good idea as 'embedded reporters' can be, it's also a risk which has been amplified by the Twittersphere (in a way that had not yet manifested when imbedding with troops in Iraq was done). OPSEC is important.
Granted, but the ability to harvest, collate and disseminate "finds" to the front line may be beyond the Orcs ability. Either that or their Int. is better than much of their other armed services.

Which is not to say that OPSEC should be breached, far from it.
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Old 31st Aug 2022, 20:18
  #8692 (permalink)  
 
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I can't obviously speak for others here, but I do have to say that in the midst of a major operation I'll hold to the STFU principle.

I'm however very grateful for all the links, informative and often enlightening, provided by fellow PPRuNers.
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Old 31st Aug 2022, 21:11
  #8693 (permalink)  
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This isn’t about a blitzkreig. They have 25 Russian BTGs (most about 50% manned and short of food, ammo and everything else) trapped in a pocket where they’ve dropped all the bridges for resupply, have good ISR, and the entire area is in artillery/HIMARS range.

No need to take heavy casualties, just gradually cut each off and grind them slowly into the dust until winter arrives….

Arestovych on Kherson: "No point waiting for quick radical changes. This is a long story. Russians have 25-30 BTGs there, knocking them out quickly won't work. But what will work is to open up their logistics and smash it with artillery and HIMARS".
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Old 31st Aug 2022, 21:33
  #8694 (permalink)  
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https://theins.ru/en/politics/254573

A farewell to arms. By year end Russia will be left almost without shells, artillery and armored vehicles

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Old 31st Aug 2022, 22:11
  #8695 (permalink)  
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What is 'officer slavery', why do Russian army officers complain of it, and why is the Russian army like a Roach Motel – officers can check in, but they can't check out? Here's the first part of a 2-part Thread on why it can be hard to leave the Russian army if you're an officer.…

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...203841538.html

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Old 31st Aug 2022, 22:15
  #8696 (permalink)  
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An unfamiliar smell of defeatism emanating from Russian militant channels.…



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Old 1st Sep 2022, 00:18
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Originally Posted by NutLoose View Post
It sounds like the defence of Kherson was crumbling before the Ukrainian counter attack.



https://news.yahoo.com/report-drunk-...001518057.html
Perhaps the west should provide new supplies of vodka and other favored beverages to those fighting for Russia in occupied Ukraine.
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Old 1st Sep 2022, 00:36
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Originally Posted by GlobalNav View Post
Perhaps the west should provide new supplies of vodka and other favored beverages to those fighting for Russia in occupied Ukraine.
'Twill never be allowed! Goes completely against health recommendations on alcohol consumption!
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Old 1st Sep 2022, 02:07
  #8699 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by GlobalNav View Post
Perhaps the west should provide new supplies of vodka and other favored beverages to those fighting for Russia in occupied Ukraine.
Defect with a tank get a lifetime supply of vodka
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Old 1st Sep 2022, 03:46
  #8700 (permalink)  

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Originally Posted by rattman View Post
Defect with a tank get a lifetime supply of vodka
Give up guns, surrender and waive RF citizenship
+ UKR citizenship
+ 1 year restoration labor with roof, food and heating provided
+ 12000 EUR (delivered by 500/month)
+ 3 year work permit to EU
+ Red Cross family reunion after 5 years.

Would the en-masse movement be observable from the satellites?


The poor grunts (both literally and figuratively) signed up to RF forces in a hope for better existence to what they had been facing. The suggestion above probably doubles their offer on equivalent terms.

Plus the chance of not having to kill, a whole new definition of priceless.

Unfortunately for the forsaken souls, probably valid on both sides, many don't care about not dying themselves anymore.
​​​​​
And Ukraine will need to face the demographic drop in male population inland.
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