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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Old 8th Aug 2022, 12:30
  #7701 (permalink)  
fdr
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Glad he never specified the Country, I would imagine that would be tanatamount to using a nuclear weapon in Ukraine and the Russian land and scorched desert he is talking about may well be his homeland as that would I assume cross the redline..
Causing a meltdown of the NPP would hardly be in keeping with their care of the people of Donbas, it would make Hitlers commands to raze Paris and other cities look like trivia. It would also mess up around 20% of Russia, and that also happens to be Russias main food source, warn areas in winter (well, relatively) nd as shown below, of the 145M and reducing Russians out there, it gets to take out much of the most heavily populated parts of Russia. Outstanding.

Additionally, why would the Russians assume that following weaponising of NPPs, that the 12 locations that they have would not be open to "special wiring faults"? Those are not needing to be having a bad day from military strikes, I mean, having RBMKs upwind of major cities, makes one hope that the power lines are reliable, after all, taking out the transmission lines from any nuke station runs a high likelihood of a scram, and that also ends up with a highly desirable standby power system to keep the pumps running, isolating from the grid and the resultant scramming gets rid of a lot of those amps needed to keep the whole mess from repeating the PVC problem that remains a habit of the RBMKs. Now they did fix the AZ-5 self isolation mode, apparently, but that was brought to all by the same system that sold tank barrels for scrap... that gave the images of the rotted tyres on their APCs.. Any assumption that the Russian NPPs have functioning safety systems would take a lot of faith or naiveté. Now, would prefer all of the silly talk of removing 25% of the arable land of the world to save the face and butt of a despot got put into the dustbin of historically bad ideas. How destroying the most arable parts of Russia out of spite, forget about the following days whoopsies at all of Russias NPPs, ow that is in the Russians best interest is lost to me. Not sure that you can still write in the margin of history that Putin saved Donbas by making it and 1/4 of Russia uninhabitable for 20,000 years....

Playing around with irreversible systems out of spite or with 120mm tubes is not a recommended practice.

Peter Zeihan makes a pretty good overview of Russias countryside, in his discussions on demographics, and that shows how little of Russia is a fun place to live for most of the year, and much of that is downwind of the NPP of topical discussion, and all of the rest is downwind of Mullet Rouge's 12 NPPs that seem to be subject to some risk all of their own.



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Old 8th Aug 2022, 13:03
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Korea is also offering labour to help rebuild some of the destroyed cities, but giant statues of Kim Jong-un and his family are hardly what Russia needs scattering across the Donbas.
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Old 8th Aug 2022, 13:35
  #7703 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by fdr
That seems to belie a Special Shopping Operation or whatever the justification is today. Would be an interesting learning point for all concerned. NK would certainly need to bring their own kit. However, FRed team has a shambolic supply chain, logistics seems to still be awaiting Murmansk convoys to run on up to give their troops any supplies. So, NK is going to move, what, X thousand tanks, tubes n trucks across that wonderful autobahn that Siberia has made famous. Would be an outstanding reason to provide full capability in ranges to take out all off the MSR access from Russia into all of Ukraines East n sough, including Crimea.

The Death Stars leader is not prepared to call a blatant act of war exactly what it is, his ego prohibits doing that; and instead he is going to get assistance from a group that the Russians need to save their butt? Maybe, It would be a loss of face of gargantuan proportions, and, if Ukraine still kicks their butts which is not out of the question, (Russia is not going to stop at any border if they are a roll... ) how would Kim 3.0 go with his southern neighbours when they are shown to be as effective as Russia's much vaunted armoured forces. At least 100,000 NKs would get some food but lord knows where that would be sourced.
Please remember this is a story in the New York Post.... which is equivalent to some British rags.
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Old 8th Aug 2022, 13:53
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Originally Posted by Winemaker
Please remember this is a story in the New York Post.... which is equivalent to some British rags.
Who picked the story up from the 60 minute show on Rossiya 1 state TV - which does not say anything without Kremlin approval, eg their statement yesterday' to kill those journalist bitches from Bild' which was widely reported in German media.

I don't doubt that NK reinforcements are a crazy idea and it will not happen.The fact that russian state propaganda discusses it as a possibility speaks volumes about how much problems they have. They are just bonkers , Poland just made a huge arms deal with S Korea. I imagine they would be equally happy to provide arms to Ukraine to defeat some NK horde.
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Old 8th Aug 2022, 14:13
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Originally Posted by Winemaker
Please remember this is a story in the New York Post.... which is equivalent to some British rags.
This is fighting talk Sir ! I have no doubt that some British rags - more than one - are more scruddy that the New York Post, if only for the fact that they have been under the ownership of the same proprietor for longer.
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Old 8th Aug 2022, 14:17
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Originally Posted by Usertim
, Poland just made a huge arms deal with S Korea. I imagine they would be equally happy to provide arms to Ukraine to defeat some NK horde.
Has that actually been finalised ? I did read a report where there was a comment from Korea saying that the Poles wanted wildly unrealistic pricing.. That seems very odd, as you would expect such key points to be pretty well agreed ( maybe some small disagreements left ) way before it got to the end stage.
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Old 8th Aug 2022, 15:11
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Originally Posted by peter we
it's not wrong as a generalisation. The 2014 invasion resulted in a poverty struck region where millions of young (basically) people left for Russia or Ukraine to avoid the war and wages half that of Ukraine. The region is funded by pension payments from people who don't want to move because yhey are are too old or incapable and those who decided to stay to help them. I don't understand the logic of staying in a war zone if you can possibly move, unless you support the regime. If you really don't want to get called up you should run away.
I note your family didn't move even when begged to do so, were Ukrainian yet chose to stay in Russian occupied territory, knowing what the Russians are like.
edit:
Sieverodonetsk was only recently occupied so why did you even mention this? We were discussing the areas occupied iin 2014. Anyone eligible to be mobilised in Ukraine was so in Feb 2022. By Ukraine.
- Some were trying to safeguard businesses, land, property they had;
- Some were too poor or too frightened to move away, especially if they had nowhere or no-one to go to;
- Some were genuinely deluded, and came to realise the truth too late (if they have yet done so at all);
- Some had done stuff that was not a good look outside DNR/LPR/etc;
- Some were making good money out of the situation;
- Some were in fact Russian in every way;
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Old 8th Aug 2022, 16:11
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Possibly post last nights strike on the Kherson bridge, looks like more potholes to attempt to repair. watching the film you can see what looks like already patched holes, which means the new ones are in the same area of the previous ones, so the whole structure must be getting doubtful as to its strength in that area, patches or no patches.


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Old 8th Aug 2022, 16:27
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And as for this showing Ukrainians fleeing Kherson into Russian controlled territory and not towards Ukrainian, who in the right mind would head towards the contested front lines, better to move the other way out of the city until its is over, then return.

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Old 8th Aug 2022, 18:35
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Has that actually been finalised ? I did read a report where there was a comment from Korea saying that the Poles wanted wildly unrealistic pricing.. That seems very odd, as you would expect such key points to be pretty well agreed ( maybe some small disagreements left ) way before it got to the end stage.

The contracts have been signed for the fighters and the 180 K2's and I think some k9's they will be korean built, the 800 additional K2 + associated k9's and ifv's have not been signed. The korean built K2 will start delivering this year for completion by 2024, same with the a planes
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Old 8th Aug 2022, 20:07
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Also looks like we know how the harms were launched. Sounds like they were launched from ukrainian fighters

Under Secretary of Defense Colin Kahl did a US Defense Department Press briefing today about a new $1 billion support package for Ukraine, and issues related to Taiwan. At about 00:26:27, in response to a question by CBS, he said this: "In recent pda packages, we have included a number of anti-radiation missiles that can be fired off of Ukrainian aircraft that can have an effect on Russian radars
https://www.c-span.org/video/?522229...aine-war&live=
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Old 8th Aug 2022, 20:23
  #7712 (permalink)  
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Germany official pull out of Nordstream 2.

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Old 8th Aug 2022, 20:25
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Finland is chipping in and sending military personnel to train Ukrainian forces in UK. With Canadian and Swedish staff it adds up to roughly 370 trainers. I've no idea how many are coming from the UK or are other countries joining the efforts.

https://www.defmin.fi/en/topical/pre...mme.12997.news
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Old 8th Aug 2022, 20:26
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Originally Posted by rattman
Also looks like we know how the harms were launched. Sounds like they were launched from ukrainian fighters
Maybe/maybe not. I would certainly drop in any disinformation that I felt would leave Ivan a little more uncertain. One of the previous links showed a launcher inside ordinary freight-containers.
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Old 8th Aug 2022, 20:26
  #7715 (permalink)  
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Rattman,

Which would imply they have already acquired and flying some F-16s…

https://mezha.media/en/2022/08/08/agm-88-harm/

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Old 8th Aug 2022, 20:37
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Rattman,

Which would imply they have already acquired and flying some F-16s…

https://mezha.media/en/2022/08/08/agm-88-harm/
disagree, think the harms are being fired from russian / soviet aircraft. Still think the F-16, specifically the F-16 in ukrainian camo released by the UAF on social media is the ultimate troll.
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Old 8th Aug 2022, 22:01
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Would some of Polands westernised Migs be capable of launching them?

No, these are likely fully NATO and adapters from Slovak/Polish/Bulgarian MIGs were used.
I heard the Slovakian MiG-29 might have been modified to fire HARMS; there were also rumors of a ground-based system, but the integration with the targeting computer seemed questionable.
My thoughts also, that some of the planes given to Ukraine may have been modified to be compatible with NATO standard bus and weapons.

Last edited by NutLoose; 8th Aug 2022 at 22:14.
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Old 8th Aug 2022, 23:21
  #7718 (permalink)  
 
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Finland is now sending instructors to the U.K. to join us in training Ukrainian troops, that’s now Finland, Sweden, Netherlands, Canada and the U.K involved.



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Old 8th Aug 2022, 23:27
  #7719 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Finland is now sending instructors to the U.K. to join us in training Ukrainian troops, that’s now Finland, Sweden, Netherlands, Canada and the U.K involved.

New Zealand also has artillery instructors there as well
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Old 9th Aug 2022, 00:19
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Originally Posted by rattman
New Zealand also has artillery instructors there as well
Cool…… it’s really getting to be multinational.
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