Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[Winemaker]

From Wartranslated.com, which is a Ukrainian site so factor that in, intercepted phone call between Russian soldiers:

There’s nothing. Everything is for the show. There’s nothing. At all. Their mortars and artillery men fire accurately as f*ck. They’ll shoot, then adjust with drones. A drone is often hanging above us. They have drones with thermal vision for the night, and regular ones for the day. They’ll launch a drone, ours can’t do anything with the drones. They hold them roughly along the *front* line, adjusting. They launch a mortar bomb, it explodes somewhere. They will adjust. Ten bam-bam-bam-bam-bam they put down more, and that’s it. The square is closed. Losses inflicted. Worked well, time to go. That’s how they work. They don’t have some massive authority or something to have 500 bombs in their storages. Not a lot of people. They have like 2-3 people in a crew. They’ll come with a mortar, fire and go.

Pretty smart use of UAV's for ranging..... This is prior to the introduction of HIMARS.

[rattman]

Originally Posted by Winemaker

From Wartranslated.com, which is a Ukrainian site so factor that in, intercepted phone call between Russian soldiers:

Pretty smart use of UAV's for ranging..... This is prior to the introduction of HIMARS.

I never knew this, saw an interview with a ukrainian tanker apparently they practiced using tanks as indirect fire support with it being corrected by drone. That was pre war tactic, now apparently they are doing it with the truck mounted bofors like AA guns

[MJ89]

You may recall my comment on graphic content as norm on twitter now with the conflict, well i saw this back in the liveleak days and think, as horrible that it is it should probably be seen by most, as a reminder that Russia's been doing this stuff since the 90s, and backing the worst in Europe (SERBs) apart from themselves.
And seem to revil in re-creating a microcosm of the worst of history.

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- Chechnya

Some may have seen before, i haven't seen it since about a decade ago but if anyone has any info on it possibly being fake, id really like to know.

History repeats itself

[tartare]

Originally Posted by MJ89

You may recall my comment on graphic content as norm on twitter now with the conflict, well i saw this back in the liveleak days and think, as horrible that it is it should probably be seen by most, as a reminder that Russia's been doing this stuff since the 90s, and backing the worst in Europe (SERBs) apart from themselves.
And seem to revil in re-creating a microcosm of the worst of history.

https://twitter.com/_Drunken_Rabbit/...qrqTd9o24S7UiQ - Chechnya

Some may have seen before, i haven't seen it since about a decade ago but if anyone has any info on it possibly being fake, id really like to know.

History repeats itself

Indeed.
While not in any way excusing it, it is simply the Russian way of waging war - casual savagery - since the time of the Czars.
What we are seeing now is a repeat of Chechnya - the only difference being it's in high definition colour, near real time and able to be seen by a much wider proportion of the global population due to the Internet.
Their behaviour in combat is the result of many hundreds of years of history and culture, absolutist rulers, medieval servitude, fatalism and resignation.

UPDATE:
If this is true - it could be game-changing: US to supply ATACMS to UKR.
Trying to embed Tweet but not having much luck...

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[Tartiflette Fan]

Originally Posted by Beamr

Finland is chipping in and sending military personnel to train Ukrainian forces in UK. With Canadian and Swedish staff it adds up to roughly 370 trainers. I've no idea how many are coming from the UK or are other countries joining the efforts.

https://www.defmin.fi/en/topical/pre...mme.12997.news

Just out of curiosity, why is the UK the sole training point ? Is it because of being the most enthusiastic W European supporter and also having the most widely spoken common language ? Training facilities and training areas aren't any better/more widely available than in other states, are they ? I suppose though - answering my own question - the only other large contenders would be France and Germany - both of which have been significantly more reticent on all matters Ukrainian.

[Beamr]

Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan

Just out of curiosity, why is the UK the sole training point ? Is it because of being the most enthusiastic W European supporter and also having the most widely spoken common language ? Training facilities and training areas aren't any better/more widely available than in other states, are they ? I suppose though - answering my own question - the only other large contenders would be France and Germany - both of which have been significantly more reticent on all matters Ukrainian.

I am in the understanding that urban warfare training is the main focus point and that UK would have very suitable premises readily available in required scale for thousands of troops. You can't build such training environment overnight.

[Tartiflette Fan]

Originally Posted by Beamr

I am in the understanding that urban warfare training is the main focus point and that UK would have very suitable premises readily available in required scale for thousands of troops. You can't build such training environment overnight.

Well, if the urban warfare is correct, then I see the sense. I would have thought though, that since these are absolutely raw recruits with no experience, then general training would have been more important, unless Ukraine is specifically targeting these troops at planned urban offensives (starting with Kherson ) over the coming months. That's just my own -otherwise uninformed -speculation though.

[Beamr]

Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan

Well, if the urban warfare is correct, then I see the sense. I would have thought though, that since these are absolutely raw recruits with no experience, then general training would have been more important, unless Ukraine is specifically targeting these troops at planned urban offensives (starting with Kherson ) over the coming months. That's just my own -otherwise uninformed -speculation though.

The inurban areas of Ukraine are very much flat as a pancake controlled by artillery via UAV's. Theres nothing much to hide or fight for infantry. The warfare in attack will be cleaning the villages and towns, jence the need for urban warfare skills.

In normal circumstances the basic training would probably be around 8 weeks and group specific training around 8-12 weeks, but in wartime circumstances theres no such luxury as time. It will be very tight schedule to get 10000 new troops out of the oven every 120 days.

[NutLoose]

Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan

Well, if the urban warfare is correct, then I see the sense. I would have thought though, that since these are absolutely raw recruits with no experience, then general training would have been more important, unless Ukraine is specifically targeting these troops at planned urban offensives (starting with Kherson ) over the coming months. That's just my own -otherwise uninformed -speculation though.

They are doing all of it, kitting them out, teaching basics then urban conflict as far as I can see.

[dead_pan]

Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan

Well, if the urban warfare is correct, then I see the sense. I would have thought though, that since these are absolutely raw recruits with no experience, then general training would have been more important, unless Ukraine is specifically targeting these troops at planned urban offensives (starting with Kherson ) over the coming months. That's just my own -otherwise uninformed -speculation though.

I did read the Ukrainians we were training did have some combat experience i.e. weren't raw recruits.

Interesting thought regarding the training curriculum. Its no doubt informed by Ukr high command in light of their experiences. Maybe the view is that their troops could have done better in the likes of Severodonetsk?

[dead_pan]

US confirm they have indeed supplied HARM missiles to Ukr:

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[NutLoose]

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https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...british-forces

The training will give volunteer recruits with little to no military experience the skills to be effective in frontline combat. Based on the UK’s basic soldier training, the course covers weapons handling, battlefield first aid, fieldcraft, patrol tactics and the law of armed conflict.

[Beamr]

Originally Posted by radio free europe

Belarus Air Force Starts Exercises At Home And At Russian Base

Belarus' air force is holding exercises on its territory and at a military training base in Russia, the Belarusian Defense Ministry said on August 9.

According to the ministry, the drills involve live fire and are to be held in two phases: the first from August 9 to August 11 in Belarus, while the second one on August 22-25 will take place at Russia's Ashuluk military training base located in Russia's southwest near the border with Kazakhstan.

Hopefully Lukashenka doesn't get any bad ideas, last time there was a joint exercise in Belarus it ended with full scale war

https://www.rferl.org/a/belarus-air-.../31980214.html

[NutLoose]

Being taught how to fight a war by Russia, ohhhh the irony of it all.

Another great Ukrainian leader.

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[NutLoose]

This is a long way back behind the lines..

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[Wokkafans]

Melitopol also getting some attention.

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[dead_pan]

Originally Posted by Beamr

Hopefully Lukashenka doesn't get any bad ideas, last time there was a joint exercise in Belarus it ended with full scale war

There's eff all chance Belarus joining the war. Firstly, they'd be no match for even Ukr irregular and conscript forces, secondly they'd risk a full scale revolt at home

[ORAC]

Remember that not everything will be long range artillery. Ukraine has long range groups operating behind enemy lines.

using the same vehicles and speaking the same language they’ll easily merge into the ongoing troop movements - until they strike.

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by Beamr

Hopefully Lukashenka doesn't get any bad ideas,
https://www.rferl.org/a/belarus-air-.../31980214.html

Thanks for the aviation content.
For dead_pan: while I think that your assessment of Belarus is probably right, I am not content to think "never" is a prediction I'd be willing to make.
Lukashenko is a bit of a wild card, but I think that this bit is his greatest concern

secondly they'd risk a full scale revolt at home

Above all else, he wants to remain in power.

[Pali]

They have no idea what are they committed to...
SpecNaz? Hardly. I see no helmets, kevlar, night viz or tactical gear.
Пушечное мясо.

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