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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 27th Jun 2022, 15:36
  #6581 (permalink)  
 
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If you want to be objective about this, Ukraine is getting weapons and ammo from other nations, so Russia is getting weapons/ammo from other nations, although it might be that this was Russian ammo staged in Belarus before the war "special operation" started.
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Old 27th Jun 2022, 15:54
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The other worry is Russia has been building its troop levels back up in Belarus I believe.

The QRF can be based out of "theatre" I seem to remember reading and shipped in as and when, but they would do that anyway if there was an incursion, though I can see a stiffening up of what is already in those Eastern Countries.
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Old 27th Jun 2022, 16:05
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
If you want to be objective about this, Ukraine is getting weapons and ammo from other nations, so Russia is getting weapons/ammo from other nations, although it might be that this was Russian ammo staged in Belarus before the war "special operation" started.
True, I also see some people going on about about the cost of the HIMARS and their ammunition they are receiving, true they are expensive, but when you put it into perspective they are cheap, if you can take out and hit target with 6 rounds avoiding collateral damage, where the Russians expend 60 or 70 rounds often missing the targets by a long way, then you are onto a winner.
For one, you do not need all the launchers, ammo and the supply chain the Russians need to get those to the launch / firing point, often to be wasted constructing new duck ponds around the farmland of Ukraine, and two, you in effect negate the ten to one advantage in firepower, as you achieve your military objective with fewer weapons and rounds....
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Old 27th Jun 2022, 16:37
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Aviation content

Martlet appearing to take down a Russian KA52

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Old 27th Jun 2022, 18:27
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Regarding NATO forces uplift and deployment, I heard that the plan is eg for Estonia to create a new, permanent NATO led division in Estonia with up to 25000 troops. It would consist of 10000 locals and rest would be on rotation from bigger NATO countries. It would be a big leap from current situation of approx 2000 troops.
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Old 27th Jun 2022, 19:58
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
True, I also see some people going on about about the cost of the HIMARS and their ammunition they are receiving, true they are expensive, but when you put it into perspective they are cheap, if you can take out and hit target with 6 rounds avoiding collateral damage, where the Russians expend 60 or 70 rounds often missing the targets by a long way, then you are onto a winner.
For one, you do not need all the launchers, ammo and the supply chain the Russians need to get those to the launch / firing point, often to be wasted constructing new duck ponds around the farmland of Ukraine, and two, you in effect negate the ten to one advantage in firepower, as you achieve your military objective with fewer weapons and rounds....
Aviation related response: When one is using, for air dropped munitions, guided bombs such as JDAM or a GBU-12 LGB, it takes a lot fewer bombs to hit/neutralize/destroy a target...but each bomb is more expensive.
There used to be a Copperhead artillery round that could be lased to the target, not sure if our folks still use those.
Originally Posted by Beamr
Regarding NATO forces uplift and deployment, I heard that the plan is eg for Estonia to create a new, permanent NATO led division in Estonia with up to 25000 troops. It would consist of 10000 locals and rest would be on rotation from bigger NATO countries. It would be a big leap from current situation of approx 2000 troops.
A division sized unit can't be stood up, nor become combat effective, in a short time. I'd love to see the proposed ToE for that unit.
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Old 27th Jun 2022, 19:58
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The casualties from various reports would suggest that this war is not sustainable for much longer without out serious reinforcements for both sides .
That might risk escalation beyond the present kill zones . Doesn’t look like arming the grannies and grandpa’s has brought anything but more death to civilians .
Maybe the Turks and Poles could attempt a pig roast of the Russians , with some help from Latvia and Estonia they might just win a few battles before the tactical nukes are used and the big city killer nukes start heading to the weapons factories around the globe .
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Old 27th Jun 2022, 20:04
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Originally Posted by fitliker
Maybe the Turks and Poles could attempt a pig roast of the Russians , with some help from Latvia and Estonia they might just win a few battles before the tactical nukes are used and the big city killer nukes start heading to the weapons factories around the globe .
While I am now more pleased than ever that the US finally got out of the ABM treaty (it only made sense during cold war MAD, which is thirty years in our past) I am pretty sure that the Poles and Turks have little desire to bring the war home to their civilian populations, which is what this "pig roast" that you suggest would likely induce.
And I think it a pretty safe call that nobody (and probably not anyone in the Russian brain trust) want to see nuclear missiles slung about at capitals all over the world.
Though the Chinese might be pleased to watch and eat popcorn, such an exchange would harm the global economy such that China would not be a fan as it would hit them hard in the wallet.
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Old 27th Jun 2022, 20:07
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flight time is 30 seconds.thats sone range, 9miles? How's that possible if its a Martlet?
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Old 27th Jun 2022, 20:35
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Emel.OW
Despite the fact that me and the majority of my friends are strictly against this war, we couldn’t ignore a few things. First was the growing Russophobia in the western world (we’re talking about the pre-war times of course), with the adjective “Russian” becoming equal to “evil” in the western press. Russian hackers, Russians messing with the US elections and so on.
Unfortunately, those few "things" were the fruits of your Governments foreign policy. Invasions of Georgia, Crimea etc added to those "things". I'm afraid your comment is just propaganda on the part of the Russian Government, appearing to oppose the war, but giving justification of Russia's actions of invading a neighbour. We have looked at considered your different perspective; the problem is, we don't believe you.
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Old 27th Jun 2022, 20:48
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Originally Posted by peter we
flight time is 30 seconds.thats sone range, 9miles? How's that possible if its a Martlet?
9 miles would be the range if it were travelling at max speed for the duration of the intercept. In reality, there will be an unpowered phase where the missile is decelerating. The duration of this phase will largely be determined by the amount of course adjustment that the missile has to do (based on the manoeuvring of the target). For a relatively slow target (such as a helicopter) this will be minimal and the missile would likely be able to successfully intercept close to it's maximum range, potentially when it is quite low on energy.
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Old 27th Jun 2022, 21:04
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Originally Posted by Emel.OW
Talking about the global security - was it that much to ask for from our side, just not to expand NATO anymore? I know you might say that it’s all BS, and that NATO is purely a defensive structure. But on the other hand, just imagine let’s say Mexico joining a “defensive alliance” with Russia, and guess what kind of response one could expect from the States.
Of course, there is a reason why Mexico joining a defensive alliance with Russia is something that can only be imagined, whilst many of your neighbours (including - almost unthinkable just 6 months ago- Finland and Sweden) are desperate to join NATO? If you are against the expansion of NATO, then you would be better asking the question of your own government; they are the people driving its expansion.
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Old 27th Jun 2022, 21:13
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Emel.OW

I'm glad you're against the war, especially as you say you're Russian - but be careful not to overcomplicate things...or to subtly shift the blame onto others. Those young Ukranian bodies that are uploaded to Twitter and the like wouldn't be there if not for the actions of your ruler. Their young blood is on your hands whether you like it or not. They didn't invade Russia, they didn't threaten Russia - you came to their land and killed them on their own soil. Deal with it, and try your best to hold your ruler to account.
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Old 27th Jun 2022, 21:59
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Originally Posted by peter we
flight time is 30 seconds.thats sone range, 9miles? How's that possible if its a Martlet?
As said above, the blurb on the Web gives its range about 8 Km, but then again you do not put out the true capability of your weapons, I did think though as it was approaching perhaps they should have waited a little longer, but they are the ones that know what they are doing

Last edited by NutLoose; 27th Jun 2022 at 22:22.
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Old 27th Jun 2022, 22:38
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Originally Posted by Emel.OW
I wasn’t talking about the current situation, just the prerequisites
Dear Sir,
Did you mean "precursors"?

The "Prerequisite" for the invasion of Ukraine as it has been handled was a head of state without restraints by normal government checks & balances, a now distant history of invasions of the Russian frontier for a bit over a thousand years, a kleptocratic government that diverts sovereign wealth to individuals, a system that has so ingrained repression and extrajudicial acts by the regimes in charge, that meaningful dissent is devastated removing the opportunity to correct the aberration that exists in the Kremlin. It is possible that the current management is not an aberration, it is the foreseeable outcome of a system that has become accepting of the misbehavior of its heads of government. Add unfortunate autoloader design paradigms for theatric effect, a propensity to conduct indiscriminate warfare and a disregard for the norms of the Geneva Convention, an inability to honor contracts and treaties, breach of their own promises memorialized by their own hand on pledged behavior, a total disregard of the truth to their own conscripts, and you get Russia today. One-man-bands are attractive on the surface, as they often appear to fix the moribund nature of governance, but they have a strong propensity to lead to irrational action based on the whims of "the one". Suppress dissent and odd outcomes are just a matter of inconvenient timing.

The damage done to Russia's international standing arises from the purported adoration of a strong man, "a man like Putin" who manipulated the population and established a one-man-band determining the fate of all Russians.

The inability of the Russian airforce to obtain control of the air is a surprise, as is the inability of the BTGs to conduct combined force operations. The roll call of deceased military leaders and the imprisonment of Russians for protest, for service personnel objecting to being destroyed by lies from corrupt leaders, for having deficient weapons as a consequence of corrupt practices in the military..... Russia has its true heroes, the 200+ Russian journalists that have been murdered since the 60's, dissenters prepared to brave the brutality of your man Putin, and others who have elected to renounce the actions of their government. Russian forces committing mass destruction, murder and rape, and theft still color the actions in general.

Economically, this unnecessary war is a disaster for Russia; your future potential is diminished, the path to return to global trade is going to be interesting, and restoring trust is a challenge, and comes with overheads. Going to be a brave manager to lend, lease, or rely on the word of honor of any Russian entity anytime soon. Reparations, possibly. War crimes, certainly. Export of energy?, who will trust Russia as a supplier of strategic goods? Oil, gas, self-immolating weapon systems? Russian "military advisors"? Technology? Skilled trades? Russia is reaping the rewards of its repression, paranoia, and demographics all at once, with the timing set by Putin.

There is no "success" in any outcome in Ukraine, the strategic goal of lebensraum from NATO has resulted in energizing a tired alliance and adding new members on Russia's borders. A takeover of Ukraine is a greater disaster for the Russian military and cost to Russia than a withdrawal. Russia has made enemies of a neighbor that did have some shared history, much of it involving persecution, forced relocation and acts of genocide by the Soviet central government. Attempting genocide of 46 million of your neighbors would certainly enshrine Ruiussias place in history, as it appears for odd reasons, the Ukrainians would like Russia to leave its sovereign land and return to their national borders, and to please pay for damages arising during your rampage.

The shooting in Ukraine is only the start of the problems for Russia, and whether the Russian Federation will survive at all is an interesting question. How and when change occurs is quite unclear, but it will need a few good citizens.

Russia isn't evil, it has permitted the establishment of a kleptocratic dictatorship from inaction due to disinterest, self-interest, fear and subjugation of its population precluding demands of better governance. That leads to evil acts by evil men in power, prerequisites to stains on the name and reputation of your country and people.

Last edited by fdr; 27th Jun 2022 at 22:53.
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Old 27th Jun 2022, 23:30
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Originally Posted by Emel.OW
Hi Nuttie. With all the respect, let me give you a different perspective, from a simple Russian middle-class guy point of view
Such a large post of **** to justify the war, your country invaded ukraine twice, georgia, massacares in syria and mali. Ever occured to you that why people hate your country. People hate the US for exactly the same ****, you have only your government to blame.

I think you are speaking out your ass.

Your whole post is effectively my life hasn't changed so I have no reason to give a **** about the ukrainian and fellow russians dieing. Would I be right to assume you live in moscow or saint petersberg ?
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Old 27th Jun 2022, 23:36
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Emel.OW

I wouldn’t say that the West hated Russia, there was always a bit of underlying distrust, Salisbury in the U.K. and the Nerve Agent poisoning brought that home, the US election meddling possibly another,
Personally from a western perspective the fact is Ukraine is a sovereign country and Russia was wrong to invade it in 2014, and then to invade again and carry out the current war.
I think everyone was stunned how poor the Russian military actually is, but there is a difference between the pretty show vehicles which are probably not combat ready but are wheeled out every May 9th parade and the poor vehicles they actually operate, it shows the corruption and theft of military equipment on a large scale, the tyres were one such item, A set of 50 Michelin XZL tyres retails on Alibaba at approximately $36,000, whereas 50 sets of the Chinese equivalent retails at around $208, hence not expecting a war anytime soon no doubt someone was buying the cheap sets, billing for the expensive and pocketing the cash, unfortunately for them the war showed up their corruption.

I would agree the West needed to arm Ukraine faster and in greater quantities, it might sound a strange reasoning but doing it in small slow pieces it is prolonging the war, if Ukraine had the means to stop it then Putin would have been forced to either retreat or sue for peace, thus preventing the needless deaths on both sides. Personally as I said at the time, when Russia said they were sending “peacekeepers” in, the west should have done the same along the front as it was.

I am afraid although not partisan to the actions of a few, the Russian people on a whole will be tarred with the rape and murder of men, women and children in the likes of Bucha for many many years to come. It is up to the Russian people to change this, the west is powerless to undo decades of an ingrained culture. And as for being humans, a lot of your troops and hierarchy have already lost that description.
But we are slipping into Jetblast territory, so let’s get back to what’s happening militarily.
I would add your English is very good.

.

Last edited by NutLoose; 28th Jun 2022 at 00:00.
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Old 27th Jun 2022, 23:42
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Originally Posted by Emel.OW
🤷🏻‍♂️ Just my opinion, not trying to justify anything. Simply wondering how people can judge others without knowing the details
What dont we know, russia attacked a sovriegn democracy (twice) and murdered 10 of thousands of civilians, has kipnapped 1000's of civilians. Raped untold numbers of ukrainian women and children. Stole food from country ! What am i missing ?

But hey at least you can still buy your ****ty coffee from starbucks starvlads
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Old 27th Jun 2022, 23:46
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Emel, in many ways Western propaganda is just as effective as it's Russian counterpart in demonising the 'enemy'.
Just as much of the Russian population believes us to be a bunch of gay drug addicts there are, as you can see, many victims of Western propaganda who think all Russians are evil heartless child killers, every one guilty by proxy for not 'voting' Putain out (as if! Western naiivety is sometimes quite unbelieveable too).

It was ever thus.
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Old 27th Jun 2022, 23:58
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Originally Posted by Emel.OW
Hang on, so you’re blaming me personally or what?
Blaming your government. But your poor argument that well we did it because the west "demonised us" as a justification makes massive ----. (as an aussie theres a word I would use here that would get in trouble I guess)

We dont need to demonise russia, they have done it well enough just by the actions, murder, rape threatening nuclear attack every other day. Makes your government a criminal state, if you support your government or try to justify it, makes you a ****ty human being as well
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