Originally Posted by
Emel.OW
I wasn’t talking about the current situation, just the prerequisites
Dear Sir,
Did you mean
"precursors"?
The "Prerequisite" for the invasion of Ukraine as it has been handled was a head of state without restraints by normal government checks & balances, a now distant history of invasions of the Russian frontier for a bit over a thousand years, a kleptocratic government that diverts sovereign wealth to individuals, a system that has so ingrained repression and extrajudicial acts by the regimes in charge, that meaningful dissent is devastated removing the opportunity to correct the aberration that exists in the Kremlin. It is possible that the current management is not an aberration, it is the foreseeable outcome of a system that has become accepting of the misbehavior of its heads of government. Add unfortunate autoloader design paradigms for theatric effect, a propensity to conduct indiscriminate warfare and a disregard for the norms of the Geneva Convention, an inability to honor contracts and treaties, breach of their own promises memorialized by their own hand on pledged behavior, a total disregard of the truth to their own conscripts, and you get Russia today. One-man-bands are attractive on the surface, as they often appear to fix the moribund nature of governance, but they have a strong propensity to lead to irrational action based on the whims of "the one". Suppress dissent and odd outcomes are just a matter of inconvenient timing.
The damage done to Russia's international standing arises from the purported adoration of a strong man, "a man like Putin" who manipulated the population and established a one-man-band determining the fate of all Russians.
The inability of the Russian airforce to obtain control of the air is a surprise, as is the inability of the BTGs to conduct combined force operations. The roll call of deceased military leaders and the imprisonment of Russians for protest, for service personnel objecting to being destroyed by lies from corrupt leaders, for having deficient weapons as a consequence of corrupt practices in the military..... Russia has its true heroes, the 200+ Russian journalists that have been murdered since the 60's, dissenters prepared to brave the brutality of your man Putin, and others who have elected to renounce the actions of their government. Russian forces committing mass destruction, murder and rape, and theft still color the actions in general.
Economically, this unnecessary war is a disaster for Russia; your future potential is diminished, the path to return to global trade is going to be interesting, and restoring trust is a challenge, and comes with overheads. Going to be a brave manager to lend, lease, or rely on the word of honor of any Russian entity anytime soon. Reparations, possibly. War crimes, certainly. Export of energy?, who will trust Russia as a supplier of strategic goods? Oil, gas, self-immolating weapon systems? Russian "military advisors"? Technology? Skilled trades? Russia is reaping the rewards of its repression, paranoia, and demographics all at once, with the timing set by Putin.
There is no "success" in any outcome in Ukraine, the strategic goal of lebensraum from NATO has resulted in energizing a tired alliance and adding new members on Russia's borders. A takeover of Ukraine is a greater disaster for the Russian military and cost to Russia than a withdrawal. Russia has made enemies of a neighbor that did have some shared history, much of it involving persecution, forced relocation and acts of genocide by the Soviet central government. Attempting genocide of 46 million of your neighbors would certainly enshrine Ruiussias place in history, as it appears for odd reasons, the Ukrainians would like Russia to leave its sovereign land and return to their national borders, and to please pay for damages arising during your rampage.
The shooting in Ukraine is only the start of the problems for Russia, and whether the Russian Federation will survive at all is an interesting question. How and when change occurs is quite unclear, but it will need a few good citizens.
Russia isn't evil, it has permitted the establishment of a kleptocratic dictatorship from inaction due to disinterest, self-interest, fear and subjugation of its population precluding demands of better governance. That leads to evil acts by evil men in power,
prerequisites to stains on the name and reputation of your country and people.