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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 24th Jun 2022, 20:25
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My dad was in the artillery - 25 pounders in Africa and Italy - but nothing told me beyond a few tales of getting drunk and suspiciously easily returning to the gun-position.in the early hours.
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Old 24th Jun 2022, 20:52
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Crikey…

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Old 24th Jun 2022, 23:27
  #6523 (permalink)  
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NotAsAMod:
As to what the EOD team did, I am glad that is not my job.
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Old 25th Jun 2022, 09:21
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So the Russians bragged about taking out a few Ukrainian positions destroying the buildings, only one slight flaw in that plan, they were the lifting stations supplying the water to millions of the population in the Donbass region. Something they will not be able to fix while the war is on going, not their smartest move in the book to deprive you’re own side of water.

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2022...nfrastructure/


At present the extensive water supply system that was supplying drinking water to four million people and supplying industry has stopped operating”, said Dr. Lambroschini. “The canal and pipeline system is damaged by months of shelling. Also water can’t flow without electricity to operate pumps and filters. Power lines have been cut, power stations bombed. As a result the whole region under the impact of the Russian advance into Ukrainian territory in most of Luhansk and Donetsk Oblast has been cut off from essential utilities (power, water, sewage).”

“At this point the water situation will remain critical because repairs would require de-mining and re-establishing power lines.”

Last edited by NutLoose; 25th Jun 2022 at 09:32.
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Old 25th Jun 2022, 11:29
  #6525 (permalink)  
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Interesting that they would film and boast about it, documenting their own war crimes…

https://www.icrc.org/en/doc/resource...her/57jmra.htm
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Old 25th Jun 2022, 14:35
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No one said they were smart.
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Old 25th Jun 2022, 17:21
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Russian IL-76 crash in Ryazan.. Probably unrelated to the war, but maintenance, fatigue and the whole temp of war may have contributed.
Just curious, any particular reason you post the Twitter links in quote tags, instead of directly? It forces us to go on Twitter instead of being able to view the tweet and the associated videos directly here.
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Old 25th Jun 2022, 17:21
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The Russian "strategy", if you could call it that is centered around an overwhelming indiscriminate artillery barrage in the direction of advance. This has produced incremental success but at the cost of a tremendous expenditure of ammunition, over 50,000 shells per day according to some reports. This is clearly unsustainable even with the depth of Russian ammunition stocks.

I predict that given the demonstrated lack of basic logistical competence of the Russian forces they are one day, probably fairly soon, just going to run out. That is the front line Brigades that are expecting a new load of shells are going to find out that suddenly there are none and all that shelling is just going to stop.

I think the Ukrainian leadership realize this and are just hanging on soaking up shells until the inevitable occurs and Russian arty is no longer a factor, at which point I think you will see the Russian advance collapse and a general rout occur.
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Old 25th Jun 2022, 17:34
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Russian MP Andrey Gurulyov is really going head over heels for WW3 on Russian state TV. Warmongering WW3 over Kaliningrad and not even hiding the fact that they would start it.

Originally Posted by the independent
London will be the first strategic Nato target to be hit by Russian missiles should a third world war erupt, a close ally of president Vladimir Putin has claimed.

Speaking on Russian state TV, Andrey Gurulyov, an MP who sits on Moscow’s defence committee, described how a possible full-scale invasion of Nato’s Baltic state members would work.

Mr Gurulyov, a former military commander and member of the pro-Putin United Russia party, said: “We’ll destroy the entire group of the enemy’s space satellites during the first air operation.

“No one will care if they are American or British; we would see them all as Nato.

“Second, we’ll mitigate the entire system of anti-missile defence, everywhere and 100 per cent. Third, we certainly won’t start from Warsaw, Paris or Berlin. The first to be hit will be London.

“It’s crystal clear that the threat to the world comes from the Anglo-Saxons.”

He said an invasion was the only way to prevent the West from blockading Kaliningrad, a Russian semi-exclave between Lithuania and Poland.

Gurulyov said Western Europe would be “cut off from power supplies” – which he said would also be destroyed – and “immobilised.”

“In the third stage, I shall see what the USA will tell Western Europe on continuing their fight in the cold, without food and electricity,” he continued. “I wonder how they [the US] will manage to stay aside.”

“This is the rough plan, and I deliberately leave out certain moments because they are not to be discussed on TV.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b2108980.html
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Old 25th Jun 2022, 18:42
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He. Looks pissed, shame he never mentions that the response would be pretty much be instantaneous and equally as destructive.
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Old 25th Jun 2022, 19:17
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Not to mention the fact that, judging by the accuracy of some of their weapons in the recent past, they may even nuke themselves!
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Old 25th Jun 2022, 22:01
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We like to think that Putin has shot himself in the foot (if not higher), but his oil and gas revenues are holding up just fine and western Europe is heading into a major energy crisis over the next winter if not sooner.

War may have the purpose of gaining control over resources and a productive population, but the destruction of infrastructure by shelling results in nothing really won except for heaps of rubble.

We see similar in Syria and Yemen. Ukraine has the very good fortune of having powerful allies on its side.

There's rumblings of resurrecting the JCPOA with Iran which would get its oil back on the world market (read China would turn to buying oil from Russia instead of Iran). Israel will of course have something to say in Washington.

As often said, who runs out of munitions first will be a deciding factor, but will that be weeks, months or years from now?
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Old 25th Jun 2022, 22:14
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Just curious, any particular reason you post the Twitter links in quote tags, instead of directly? It forces us to go on Twitter instead of being able to view the tweet and the associated videos directly here.
Because for some reason when I post directly it causes Pprune severe problems and I got barred for doing so.

I forgot on one occasion a couple months ago on JetBlast and am now, it would seem, permanently barred from the forum. I don’t wish that to occur here so obey their directions.
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Old 25th Jun 2022, 22:40
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Because for some reason when I post directly it causes Pprune severe problems and I got barred for doing so.

I forgot on one occasion a couple months ago on JetBlast and am now, it would seem, permanently barred from the forum. I don’t wish that to occur here so obey their directions.
There but for the grace of the mods go I. I have to confess the rules on posting links are not entirely clear to me.

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Old 25th Jun 2022, 22:44
  #6535 (permalink)  
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Lithuania and the Suwalki Gap now most definitely an imminent flash point.

“Lithuania won’t agree to concessions on transit of Russian goods through neighboring Kaliningrad.

“Lithuania must and will maintain control over the goods transported through its territory,” said Lithuania’s President Gitanas Nausėda.”….
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Old 25th Jun 2022, 22:49
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This might might not end well. There are people in the Kremlin that are off their rockers.
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Old 25th Jun 2022, 23:25
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Originally Posted by WB627
There but for the grace of the mods go I. I have to confess the rules on posting links are not entirely clear to me.
I might have remebered the situation wrong so deleted what was here

Last edited by rattman; 26th Jun 2022 at 03:46.
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Old 26th Jun 2022, 01:04
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Russia's "strategy", if you want to call it that, is massive indiscriminate long range artillery bombardments along the line of advance. They are expending large caliber shells at an unprecedented rate and are rapidly drawing down their stocks. Given the demonstrated logistical incompetence of the Russian army I predict one day in the not too distant future the Arty Battalions are going to ask for the next round of ammo supplies an be told "oops we just ran out". The long guns are suddenly going to go silent and the Ukrainians are going to attack leading to a massive rout.

I think that rather than a long drawn out slug fest there is going to be a massive and sudden change of fortunes, and not in a good way for the Russians. The impact of having the entire senior leadership cadre of the Russian Army chosen for political fealty, instead of military competence is going to bite Putin in the Arse. Ironically the small number of competent Generals have largely been killed off leading from the front.
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Old 26th Jun 2022, 01:19
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Lithuania and the Suwalki Gap now most definitely an imminent flash point.



“Lithuania won’t agree to concessions on transit of Russian goods through neighboring Kaliningrad.

“Lithuania must and will maintain control over the goods transported through its territory,” said Lithuania’s President Gitanas Nausėda.”….
Vaguely recollect that Lithuania agreed to allow free transit for Russian goods as part of the deal when the Russians left. Not sure how the EU membership overrides prior agreements.
Plus, it seems a silly provocation, as Russia has ample ship service to Kaliningrad to supplement the rail links.
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Old 26th Jun 2022, 04:00
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Originally Posted by etudiant
Vaguely recollect that Lithuania agreed to allow free transit for Russian goods as part of the deal when the Russians left. Not sure how the EU membership overrides prior agreements.
Plus, it seems a silly provocation, as Russia has ample ship service to Kaliningrad to supplement the rail links.
you mean like Russia promised to protect Ukraine for giving up nukes?
The Russians are so famous for keeping their word (not to mention written agreements) that it has no significance if such an agreement exists.

It has to be remembered that the closure is only affecting sanctioned goods. It is not a total blockade (which would be good, would make the russkies get some of their own medicine).

Also you'll need a lot of ships to make up for the railway connection. The biggest cargo ships can't make it to the Baltic sea and the biggest shipping companies have stopped going to Russian ports. They'd be looking for ships badly to make up for the lost connection.
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