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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Old 26th Jun 2022, 05:31
  #6541 (permalink)  
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Russia has a ferry service from St Petersburg once or twice a week, but it was a very small capacity, nowhere near enough to replace the road/rail link used d to bring in heavy bulk resources.
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Old 26th Jun 2022, 06:50
  #6542 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by etudiant
Russia has ample ship service to Kaliningrad to supplement the rail links.
That's great in the summer, not so great in the winter if the sea freezes.
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Old 26th Jun 2022, 07:01
  #6543 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by B Fraser
That's great in the summer, not so great in the winter if the sea freezes.
russia has dozen icebreakers in the Baltic sea. As does all the other Baltic sea countries. Ice hasn't been an issue for hundred years soon.
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Old 26th Jun 2022, 08:49
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Originally Posted by Beamr
Mr Gurulyov, a former military commander and member of the pro-Putin United Russia party, said: “We’ll destroy the entire group of the enemy’s space satellites during the first air operation.

“No one will care if they are American or British; we would see them all as Nato.

“Second, we’ll mitigate the entire system of anti-missile defence, everywhere and 100 per cent. Third, we certainly won’t start from Warsaw, Paris or Berlin. The first to be hit will be London.
These two statements really struck me. After 4 Months of fighting they are still unable to eliminate the few Fighter Aircraft and S-300 Systems of Ukraine but suddenly are able to take out the satellites and the whole Missile defence of NATO within hours/days. Total delusion/desperation. It tells a lot about frustration and hurt pride.

And that is why I don't think the Lithuanian Blockage is such a great idea. Russia has left rationality long behind. It's pure emotion. And that is prone to doing stoopid things.
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Old 26th Jun 2022, 09:23
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Originally Posted by henra
And that is why I don't think the Lithuanian Blockage is such a great idea.
If it was indeed a blockade, then I would agree. But it isn't.
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Old 26th Jun 2022, 09:28
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Originally Posted by etudiant
Vaguely recollect that Lithuania agreed to allow free transit for Russian goods as part of the deal when the Russians left. Not sure how the EU membership overrides prior agreements.
Plus, it seems a silly provocation, as Russia has ample ship service to Kaliningrad to supplement the rail links.
The Russians were kicked out, the agreement makes clear that Lithuania can block it as its a independent sovereign state.
Russia has absolutely no right to transit the country.
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Old 26th Jun 2022, 13:50
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Originally Posted by peter we
The Russians were kicked out, the agreement makes clear that Lithuania can block it as its a independent sovereign state.
Russia has absolutely no right to transit the country.
Not sure they were 'kicked out', they left as the USSR fell apart iirc.
There was recognition in the eventual text that stuff to and from Russia to Kaliningrad was an internal transfer, not subject to customs controls.
More broadly, this just seems a petty provocation, not sensible when one shares infrastructure such as the power grid with the grouchy neighbor.
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Old 26th Jun 2022, 14:09
  #6548 (permalink)  
 
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Well ORAC you have achieved the virtually impossible, after ten maybe twelve years fighting agin it I have gone and joined twxxter.
simply because the quality of yours and others input and tired of having to restart pprune because twitter had blocked the page, worth it, we'll see
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Old 26th Jun 2022, 14:23
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Originally Posted by etudiant
There was recognition in the eventual text that stuff to and from Russia to Kaliningrad was an internal transfer, not subject to customs controls.
.
Standard TIR carnet. Nothing spectacular there. You can't white wash Russias unjust actions by blaming others.
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Old 26th Jun 2022, 14:24
  #6550 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Beamr
Standard TIR carnet. Nothing spectacular there. You can't white wash Russias unjust actions by blaming others.
Be assured - he will carry on trying.
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Old 26th Jun 2022, 14:26
  #6551 (permalink)  
 
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Latest heavyweight replacement for Ukraine commanding general.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...s-Ukraine.html
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Old 26th Jun 2022, 15:47
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Originally Posted by Beamr
Standard TIR carnet. Nothing spectacular there. You can't white wash Russias unjust actions by blaming others.
That is silly, I've only noted that the restrictions are contrary to the existing agreements and it is not appropriate to attribute them to treaties signed subsequently with the EU.
More to the point, that region afaik has its utilities pretty integrated with Russia's, so don't be surprised if Russia cuts off the water or the power links.
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Old 26th Jun 2022, 15:50
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Latest heavyweight replacement for Ukraine commanding general.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...s-Ukraine.html
Got to have some sympathy for the Russian generals, handed a mess and told to fix it, stat, by the guy who created it in the first place.
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Old 26th Jun 2022, 15:54
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Originally Posted by etudiant
That is silly, I've only noted that the restrictions are contrary to the existing agreements and it is not appropriate to attribute them to treaties signed subsequently with the EU.
More to the point, that region afaik has its utilities pretty integrated with Russia's, so don't be surprised if Russia cuts off the water or the power links.
1. Lithuania is using exclusively ground water resources for drinking water. I have no idea how Russians will cut that off.
2. while lithuania imports 70% of its electricity, nowadays big portion comes from Sweden and the network is pretty integrated to rest of Europe. How is Russia going to cut that, invading Lithuania or Sweden?
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Old 26th Jun 2022, 16:18
  #6555 (permalink)  
 
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Lithuania has already 'disconnected' itself from Russian gas, one of, if not the only country to do so in it's entirety.
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Old 26th Jun 2022, 16:28
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Originally Posted by etudiant
Got to have some sympathy for the Russian generals, handed a mess and told to fix it, stat, by the guy who created it in the first place.
I have sympathy for the people defending their country, not these corrupt barbarians. He'll make a good target - has anyone done any stats on their life expectancy?
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Old 26th Jun 2022, 16:46
  #6557 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Video Mixdown
He'll make a good target
- as Bob Mortimer would say 'he's a sniper's dream'
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Old 26th Jun 2022, 17:20
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Originally Posted by etudiant
Not sure they were 'kicked out', they left as the USSR fell apart iirc.
There was recognition in the eventual text that stuff to and from Russia to Kaliningrad was an internal transfer, not subject to customs controls.
More broadly, this just seems a petty provocation, not sensible when one shares infrastructure such as the power grid with the grouchy neighbor.
Do keep up at the back.

They have already been working towards disconnecting Kalingrad's grid from the Baltic states, and the Baltic states from Russia's grid.

https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-englis...says-president

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ad-2022-06-22/

In fact it is Russia that is likely more nervous about any grids getting disconnected as Russia has cancelled the pending isolation test for Kalingrad. It is Kalingrad that could end up islanded for a very extended period.

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...st-2022-06-23/

For any EU-bashers around here, please note that the ability for the Baltic states to do this disconnection from the Russian grid is an EU-funded project, just like there are many other EU funded projects that have had dual use intent. The gas lines are also flowing backwards etc, road and rail links and airport expansions that quietly got built are in good use, etc. The 2025 availability date for the Baltic disconnect would appear to have been accelerated, just as the Ukraine & Moldova disconnect from Russia also got accelerated - as did their connection to the EU grid.

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/pres...tement_22_1789

By the way, Lithuania is only intending to prevent transport of stuff between Russia and Kaliningrad that is subject to EU embargos. Not other stuff.


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Old 26th Jun 2022, 17:21
  #6559 (permalink)  
 
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I see Germany has fired up their coal power stations again, perhaps we should…… oh wait we knocked them all down, I would love to know where they are getting the coal from as it used to come from the Donbass.

I see the warmongers on Russian TV say they will determine how much the west remains….


The US Naval attaché taking a selfie of himself given the Z marks a finger has gone down a treat lol.


Last edited by NutLoose; 26th Jun 2022 at 18:19.
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Old 26th Jun 2022, 17:38
  #6560 (permalink)  
 
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You need to listen to this Turkey, fifth columnist and destroying the oil infrastructure in the Netherlands and tankers in ports.

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