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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Old 28th Jun 2022, 06:57
  #6621 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by peter we
another comment from Twitter sugguested 6000m (average 200m/s) presumably from one of the explosions heard.​​Whatever, this is impressive for such a low cost missile (£48k build cost). LMM is looking impressive
if talking about the martlet vs helicopter. it was about 4km, watch for impact, count between that and sound. 12 second, speed of sound is approx 330ms. range approx 4000m.

the more accurate number 12.5 seconds * 343ms = 4,287.5m
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Old 28th Jun 2022, 07:41
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If the UK is a true flag waver for the increase in NATO's RRF, I don't see how that would be compatible with the intended premature retirement of the C-130 fleet.
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Old 28th Jun 2022, 08:15
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Originally Posted by T28B
NotAsAMod
If I may offer some insight: that point of view, which you question, may be informed by a perspective that the current war in Ukraine (initiated in February of this year) is related to, and indeed a continuation of, the internal conflict within Ukraine that has been ongoing since about 2014 - when Russia annexed Crimea - and during which a Malaysian airliner was shot down. (If you do even a cursory search, you will find threads on the R&N section of PPRuNe involving that tragic incident, and the subsequent Dutch investigation of that).
While I cannot read that poster's mind, a variety of informed observers of the current conflict see that relationship in one form or another.
Now, wait a minute. Of course there are different perspectives but If you would look more deeply into the history of the insurrection you would find that it was orchestrated by Kremlin via operatives like Igor Strelkov Girkin or Pavel Gubarev etc. and you can hardly talk about genuine "people's" movement. Without direct Russian military involvement (as you remember correctly the MH17 was shot down by Russian Buk from Kursk brigade) this would be a no story quite long ago.
Putin started that initial conflict, kept it alive and invaded sovereign country which per his own words "doesn't exist", because as he sees it – it was, it is and will be Russia.
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Old 28th Jun 2022, 08:38
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Just a quick "thank you" to the moderators for keeping this thread going. It's strayed a long way from "military aviation" at times, but is one of the best sites for information as to what is really happening.
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Old 28th Jun 2022, 09:34
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All through this 'Special military operation' I have seen on FR24, aircraft with Turkish registrations (both airline and 'private') flying from Moscow, and Sorche and heading out over 'NATO' airspace. I thought air traffic to/from Russia was banned? Even some of their diplomats had difficulty getting home. Yet this doesn't get mentioned in the press?
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Old 28th Jun 2022, 10:06
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Anyone else read into this as they are worried that it is going to happen? Why would you make such threats if you were sure the region was safe and that Ukraine wouldnt be able to make headway.

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warns NATO countries that "any invasion of Crimea would be considered a declaration of war on Russia and could lead to a third world war."
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Old 28th Jun 2022, 10:10
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Originally Posted by mmitch
All through this 'Special military operation' I have seen on FR24, aircraft with Turkish registrations (both airline and 'private') flying from Moscow, and Sorche and heading out over 'NATO' airspace. I thought air traffic to/from Russia was banned? Even some of their diplomats had difficulty getting home. Yet this doesn't get mentioned in the press?
mmitch.
It's the Russian operators that are banned from EU (and many others) airspace. It's not where the flight is originating/destining but who is operating the flight.
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Old 28th Jun 2022, 10:19
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Why would you make such threats
Speculation. Medvedev feels the need to get/keep his name in front of the Russian public ( for possible succession ? ) so he makes bellicose statements to appeal to all (especially the ranters in the Duma ). It's wise to choose an unlikely scenario, so that your words are not fired back at you in three months when that scenario comes to pass.
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Old 28th Jun 2022, 10:25
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Originally Posted by peter we
another comment from Twitter sugguested 6000m (average 200m/s) presumably from one of the explosions heard.​​Whatever, this is impressive for such a low cost missile (£48k build cost). LMM is looking impressive
One does have to question the tactics and situational awareness of the helo's crew. I mean, stooging along at a couple of thousand feet apparently without a care in the world. That's just asking for a wake-up call.
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Old 28th Jun 2022, 10:31
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Anyone else read into this as they are worried that it is going to happen? Why would you make such threats if you were sure the region was safe and that Ukraine wouldnt be able to make headway.
It does look imminent any time soon but maybe he knows something we don't about the state of Russia's military? On a related note, I wonder how the peninsular's general population would react to an an attack on the Kerch bridge, something which is much more feasible/likely?
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Old 28th Jun 2022, 10:55
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When you see the routes being taken to remove the stolen grain, the bridge shows its importance, along with the movement of goods inwards to support the war.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/61790625
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Old 28th Jun 2022, 10:57
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
It does look imminent any time soon but maybe he knows something we don't about the state of Russia's military??
That should presumably be " does not look imminent " ?

It's not specified in the comment by Medvedev, but I read that as a NATO invasion and not a Ukrainian one. I can't see any justification that anyone - even the Russian populace - would accept for starting WW3 if Ukraine were to find the strength to move back into Crimea. At most , the "special operation " would have to move up a gear.
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Old 28th Jun 2022, 11:36
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Old 28th Jun 2022, 12:16
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Originally Posted by rattman
if talking about the martlet vs helicopter. it was about 4km, watch for impact, count between that and sound. 12 second, speed of sound is approx 330ms. range approx 4000m.

the more accurate number 12.5 seconds * 343ms = 4,287.5m
That's an average speed to target of 143m/s. Given the top speed 500m/s it must of been travelling at sub 100m/s on impact
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Old 28th Jun 2022, 12:27
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Coming soon to a western intelligence centre??

https://defence-blog.com/russian-fig...le-in-ukraine/

Russian fighter jet lost a secret air-to-air missile during strikes into northern Ukraine, according to social media posts from Voyennyy Osvedomitel.

Ukrainian emergency services have found and unearthed wreckages of Russian-made R-77-1 medium-range air-to-air missile, also known as Izdeliye 170-1, in the Zhytomyr region.

Apparently, one of the most advanced Russian missiles was lost during the battle in northern Ukraine due to a technical malfunction.
The R-77-1 (NATO reporting name: AA-12B) is the latest generation of Soviet-era active-radar-guided R-77 missiles, which was subsequently introduced on Russian Su-35 Flanker fighters.The Russian Air Force entered the R-77-1 air-to-air missile into service in 2015. It offers improved resistance to countermeasures, a more sensitive seeker, and aerodynamic refinements — the lattice fins at the rear are retained.

According to open sources, the R-77-1 is 15 kg (33 lb) heavier than the basic R-77 / RVV-AE, weighing 190 kg (420 lb) rather than 175 kg (386 lb). The maximum range is increased to 110 km (68 mi) from 80 km (50 mi).

The missile is also slightly longer at 3.71 m (12.2 ft), rather than the 3.6 m (11.8 ft) of the basic variant. Additional improvements include upgrades to the missile’s radar seeker and boat tail rear section to reduce drag.
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Old 28th Jun 2022, 12:35
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Originally Posted by Herod
Just a quick "thank you" to the moderators for keeping this thread going. It's strayed a long way from "military aviation" at times, but is one of the best sites for information as to what is really happening.
+1 … this thread’s comments and links are infinitely better sources of info and opinion than mainstream Media. It’s the first source I turn to every morning.
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Old 28th Jun 2022, 12:44
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+1 here too, and for being lenient with my posts as well
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Old 28th Jun 2022, 13:16
  #6638 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
When you see the routes being taken to remove the stolen grain, the bridge shows its importance, along with the movement of goods inwards to support the war.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/61790625
It appears Putin has spent more time strategizing how to steal grain than how to conduct an aggressive invasion of a sovereign nation. Man thousands of innocent people have been murdered, Russian weaponry has been shown to be lethal, mainly to its own operators, from T-72's gators [aviation content] to the rather cunning suicidal S-400 missile system. (wonder if firing as an ARM targetting mode is wise when the same emitter types are running beside you). Maybe it was a twister with a sense of honor... either way, great for arms sales of every other OEM that didn't commit seppuku/fratricide.

My recollection is that such theft of food stocks is probably naughty, and is another set of war crimes under the GC.

Russia moved much of their effort up to the NE to take a piece of turf so as to show a measure of success, akin to moving Lord Kitchener's drink cabinet 100 yards closer to Berlin over the debris of the Somme. The South has been exposed, and a push to the SE by Ukraine would mess up the map for General Calamity as he arrives in theatre disguised as a camouflaged Zeppelin. The fastest way to relieve the NE is to kick the invaders in the dangling participles, up to the Crimean west border. Taking control of the Kherson crossings would make a lot of mischief to the RF snoozing up on the left bank of the Dneipr. Worked for the old corn cob 'n 45 dude at Incheon.

The Belarusian position is becoming interesting, they are getting set to be framed as the murderer's sidekick if they acquiesce to Putin's recent movements, and if they don't, then they are going to be in need of new insurance policies for senior management. entering the fray now with full knowledge of what the global response will be is reminiscent of Sir Humphrey commending the courageous decisions of his Minister.

In the meantime, the Kerch bridge could do with a rearrangement, using air assets sans pilots, and given the competency of S-400's F-Troop capers, perhaps it would provide some more Wile E. Coyote vignettes.


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Old 28th Jun 2022, 14:07
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It looks like they also recovered a completish but damaged modern Russian Cruise Missile, another Item I would assume the west would like to see.

https://defence-blog.com/wreckage-of...nd-in-ukraine/
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Old 28th Jun 2022, 14:12
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Originally Posted by Big Pistons Forever
Not a good look for the Russian Army or for Putin….
Combat slippers ? Are they trying to get bigger laughs than maternity flight suits of the west ?
Never underestimate the intel value of a single picture , those combat slippers must be made of a very advanced polymer material . Maybe something from their space shuttle programme .
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