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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 23rd Jun 2022, 06:23
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Originally Posted by meleagertoo View Post
I'm surprised that the discussion re the brewing up of T72s is being related to rounds carried.
This is surely not the case, the spectacular roman candle effect is a result of cordite propellant charges burning rather that any explosive reaction of pretty inert projectiles - which it little resembles?
Any molten spray whanging around inside a tank is surely going to find a cordite bag no matter what, and then it's just fireworks time, surely? Time enough for shells to cook of in the fire minutes later.
You are right in the sense that the projectiles are separated from the charges in the carousel. It is the charges that go off, not the projectiles (however depending on the projectile they may chip in).
Basically the crew is sitting on the charges, here's a pretty good video how the thing works

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Old 23rd Jun 2022, 10:18
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Originally Posted by meleagertoo View Post
I'm surprised that the discussion re the brewing up of T72s is being related to rounds carried.
This is surely not the case, the spectacular roman candle effect is a result of cordite propellant charges burning rather that any explosive reaction of pretty inert projectiles - which it little resembles?
Any molten spray whanging around inside a tank is surely going to find a cordite bag no matter what, and then it's just fireworks time, surely? Time enough for shells to cook of in the fire minutes later.

But isn't Round is broadly correct? as it is made up of the cordite charge and the shell itself


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Old 23rd Jun 2022, 11:30
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Originally Posted by racedo View Post
There are a lot of soundings at the moment in relation to Eastern Ukraine and the possibility that Kiev Government will look to conduct a major attack on this area.

In 2014 the people in this area disliked the Maidan Sq protests and did one of the own which was attacked by Kiev. As this area is populated by people with more Ethnic ties to Russia than to Western Ukraine, the people got the support of Russia, overtly and covertly after being attacked by Kiev and probably a bit before as well.

Currently a large area is held by people who wish to have little to do with Kiev and seek a breakaway from it. The war of 2014 /15 was bloody and has left a phoney ceasefire since.

Ukrainian forces have been builing up military equipment over the last number of months, Ukrainian men of conscription age have been barred from leaving the country BUT not unsurprisingly it has had zero impact as Poland / Germany have had influx of people seeing to avoid being conscripted. Poland currently has 3 million people who have left since 2014 based on Polish work permit numbers, nobody knows who are there without permits.

Trump election in 2016 brought any hope that Kiev had of starting a war to an end, the ties with Biden and family are well publicised. The change in January has opened up lots of options.

Russia has responded in last 2 weeks in moving sizeable tranches of equipment into Crimea / along border areas with helicopter units being visible in the breakaway region.

Ukrainian President unpopular at home with a less than 20% approval rating needs something, US pressure is coming to bear as well and unspecified promises, shades of Saddam re Kuwait likely being made.

So questions are

Will the Ukrainian comic President seek to start a war ?
What has he been promised ?
Does he think NATO powers will intervene ?
Is he assumming that Turkish / Israeli drones which worked in Nagorno-Karabak will do the same here ?
Will Russian units in Transniestra / Crimea come under attack ?
Does anybody expect Russia to stand by and watch Svoboda / Other neo Nazi groups be allowed do as they please ?

At the moment I see it as a 50-50 chance of a war, lots of posturing but a real danger that Kiev goes for broke. I see next 4 weeks as being key as if nowt by May 1st then maybe it dies down. But as Duke of York found out you can only march men up the hill so many times.

Ukraine however is bankrupt, it has lost 1/3 of its population since 1998 and the advent of Nordstream 2 will reduce its income even further.
So how did that prediction go?
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Old 23rd Jun 2022, 12:05
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Originally Posted by etudiant View Post
More broadly, given the loss rates, how do they still get people to operate these things?
Hopefully the priority for an unmanned armored vehicle has gone way up with this conflict.
9 x 18 Makarov has some persuasive powers

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Old 23rd Jun 2022, 13:06
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Originally Posted by RickNRoll View Post
So how did that prediction go?
I do wonder what his motivation was. For a professional Russian Troll he seemed too ill informed. Yet he seemed properly aligned with the Russian Party Line. Or maybe they keep their Trolls in the dark?
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Old 23rd Jun 2022, 13:07
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Originally Posted by fdr View Post
9 x 18 Makarov has some persuasive powers
Yet that doesn't reach much beyond the next corner
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Old 23rd Jun 2022, 13:37
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Good to see Ukraine looking ahead

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Old 23rd Jun 2022, 13:39
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Originally Posted by henra View Post
I do wonder what his motivation was. For a professional Russian Troll he seemed too ill informed. Yet he seemed properly aligned with the Russian Party Line. Or maybe they keep their Trolls in the dark?
I thought they were fairly typical of the professional Russian trolls on here. I think they're too used to preaching to a highly credulous domestic population, so they don't put enough effort into getting the detail right.
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Old 23rd Jun 2022, 13:40
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Originally Posted by RickNRoll View Post
So how did that prediction go?
Well, let's examine them one at a time.

Will the Ukrainian comic President seek to start a war ? No, but the Russian President did.
What has he been promised ? That's a very good question still, given that since the invasion began a variety of promises and offers of assistance were made, but not all of them have been fulfilled.
It is pretty clear that he was not offered anything to start a war. In the week before the invasion, he was publicly trying to get the rhetoric from various Western leaders to get toned down as the signs of the looming invasion become more obvious (to various observers of the Russian troop dispositions on the frontiers).

Does he think NATO powers will intervene ? Not sure how you could expect anyone to read that man's mind, but to date the NATO powers have not intervened. They have provided assistance in various forms.
Is he assuming that Turkish / Israeli drones which worked in Nagorno-Karabak will do the same here ? Probably, and so did his Army. And they have.
Will Russian units in Transniestra / Crimea come under attack ? No. But Russian units in Crimea attacked Ukraine.
Does anybody expect Russia to stand by and watch Svoboda / Other neo Nazi groups be allowed do as they please ? Some people probably did, but that's water under the bridge at this point. Putin's rhetoric very specifically addressed what the Russian position is on what they view as neo-Nazi influences in Eastern Ukraine. .
At the moment I see it as a 50-50 chance of a war, lots of posturing but a real danger that Kiev goes for broke. It would be the Russian president who went for broke, and he did.
Ukraine however is bankrupt, it has lost 1/3 of its population since 1998 and the advent of Nordstream 2 will reduce its income even further. The Russian invasion has done further damage to Ukraine's economy. And by the way, racedo, if you ever come back, how much of Ukraine's population loss was due to Crimea being annexed by Russia?


The OP was filled with a number of assumptions that were groundless.
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Old 23rd Jun 2022, 14:20
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A rather apt quote from Illia Ponomarenko that appears to echo some European leaders.

A tweet from 1944:
“Polish resistance must cease their attacks upon the Dirlewanger formations in Warsaw to avoid a dangerous escalation. Besides, such moves might anger Hitler, while arms supplies are counterproductive. Fighters should consider losing their lives for peace.”
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Old 23rd Jun 2022, 14:34
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The oil rig they hit.

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Old 23rd Jun 2022, 15:28
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I wonder if this is related to things going on in Russia.

The Russian colonel who was once spotted carrying Vladimir Putin’s nuclear codes briefcase has been found shot at his home near Moscow, according to the city's daily newspaper, Moskovsky Komsomolets. The elusive Colonel Vadim Zimin, 53, is thought to be gravely ill and in intensive care. He was found with gunshot wounds in the kitchen of his flat in Krasnogorsk, Moscow, by his brother. His partner, a medic, was away treating the wounded from Putin’s war in Ukraine (Picture: TV Zvezda/east2west news)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...1be57d5115453e
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Old 23rd Jun 2022, 16:51
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Originally Posted by meleagertoo View Post
I'm surprised that the discussion re the brewing up of T72s is being related to rounds carried.
This is surely not the case, the spectacular roman candle effect is a result of cordite propellant charges burning rather that any explosive reaction of pretty inert projectiles - which it little resembles?
Any molten spray whanging around inside a tank is surely going to find a cordite bag no matter what, and then it's just fireworks time, surely? Time enough for shells to cook of in the fire minutes later.
Maybe they should upgrade with a wet rack? That's surrounding the charges in water not Pamela Anderson in Baywatch.
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Old 23rd Jun 2022, 16:52
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Old 23rd Jun 2022, 16:54
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Originally Posted by NutLoose View Post
Much like previous wars there is a high attrition rate at the start which tails off as pilots "Learn the trade". Then you have highly experienced pilots who
seem to survive till the end. Unless you loose complete air supremacy that is.
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Old 23rd Jun 2022, 20:25
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Any idea on the black smoke before launch?

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Old 23rd Jun 2022, 20:59
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Originally Posted by Wokkafans View Post
Any idea on the black smoke before launch?
Pyrotechics for ignition, although it looks more like an oily rag;

"Motor operation starts from the moment the launch command in the form of current is given to the pyropropatron wire bridge through the electrical circuit of the rocket system. The wire bridge is instantly inflamed, igniting the ignition composition of the pyropropatron and its pyrotechnic composition. The resulting gases, breaking through the bottom of the pyropropatron, ignite the main ignition hanger. The mass of the formed gases and their thermal energy is enough to create the necessary conditions for the ignition of the fuel charge and its sustainable combustion"
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Old 23rd Jun 2022, 21:55
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Originally Posted by Thrust Augmentation View Post
Pyrotechics for ignition, although it looks more like an oily rag;

"Motor operation starts from the moment the launch command in the form of current is given to the pyropropatron wire bridge through the electrical circuit of the rocket system. The wire bridge is instantly inflamed, igniting the ignition composition of the pyropropatron and its pyrotechnic composition. The resulting gases, breaking through the bottom of the pyropropatron, ignite the main ignition hanger. The mass of the formed gases and their thermal energy is enough to create the necessary conditions for the ignition of the fuel charge and its sustainable combustion"
Gas Generator for the Hydraulics and Electrical power supply systems most likely. (both are powered by a turbine power unit).
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Old 23rd Jun 2022, 22:54
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...damn!!
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Old 24th Jun 2022, 00:01
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You just won’t believe this, French film crew promised they would blur maps etc but didn’t, watch the film you can see the Ukrainian positions and battle lines on the maps, in fact they show them to the bloody reporters that film it all then posted it. Ukrainians died because of that.

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