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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Old 13th May 2022, 22:26
  #5481 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC
The Russian State Duma has proposed that after the Invasion of Ukraine, that Poland be Invaded and denazified next due to their clear Support for “Nazi Elements” in Ukraine and around the World while also providing Aid to Ukraine that results in the death of Russian Troops.
Does a post on Telegram by a Russian MP now constitute official government policy ?
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Old 13th May 2022, 22:38
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ORAC,
Russian combat helos are keeping their looted domestic appliances on board
... I have to say that doesn't look like anything from a domestic appliance, more like an airframe component. However, I've never worked on Mil 28s ()so I can't confirm that.
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Old 13th May 2022, 23:19
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Originally Posted by [email protected]
Whatever he has got, I hope it hurts like hell............
Quick would be good also.
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Old 14th May 2022, 00:00
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Originally Posted by ORAC
It may sound insane, but Russian combat helos are keeping their looted domestic appliances on board, because they’ve heard the Russian postal service are - in turn - looting everything they’re sending home by mail and courier services…
Most likely that's not a washing machine. Seems to be one of the components of the helo, a bit damaged (top cover missing or crumpled) and probably turning white after being exposed to fire. You can see the grill on its side, washing machines usually don't have that:



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Old 14th May 2022, 01:32
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Originally Posted by Fly-by-Wife
Hmmm, I wonder what they might want?

Turkey has wanted to be a member of the EU for some time. Tricky, Turkey in the EU for Finland & Sweden in NATO... Not sure about that. There are various concerns about things like human rights, Cyprus, adjacency to Iran, Iraq, Syria.
Turkey’s control of Black Sea access from the Med is too strategic for NATO to lose them. Their loss of the F-35 might be something they want to reverse.
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Old 14th May 2022, 01:36
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Originally Posted by phil9560
Quick would be good also.
May Russian medicine mirror their military prowess.
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Old 14th May 2022, 06:35
  #5487 (permalink)  
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Ukrainska Pravda, an online newspaper, has identified a Russian soldier who told his wife he shot civilians in the head even when they begged for mercy.

The newspaper cited its sources at the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and said that he is 27-year-old Dmitry Gennadyevich Ivanov from the village of Kupsola in the Russian republic of Mari El. He is currently serving in Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast.

“When there were civilians. I would throw civilians in trenches. I shot them in their heads. I killed them. They cried, begged me - I still shot them…. I put these hohols on their knees. They were begging me, they were saying 'Russia forever!' and I made them say 'Russia forever!' They stood on their knees, these hohols.”….
(Hohol = Derogatory Russian word for someone who is from Ukraine.)
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Old 14th May 2022, 08:57
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Originally Posted by peter we
the Chinese reporter who recorded this is quite famous for being embedded in Russian forces. He's very pro Kremlin.
I don't know the person, nor did I look up his history, thought this publication is obviously not in line with the official Russian/China state propaganda "guidelines".

Let us be realistic, there are tons of journalists, who write a different opinion, than their personal one. For example, Fox News. And what about nearly half of the US Congress ? In private, they condemn Jan 6, though publicly "defend" or even wave off what happened.
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Old 14th May 2022, 09:18
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Those death figures are ramping up if correct, I just hope the Ukrainian ones are low, though I think air and artillery will be taking a toll
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Old 14th May 2022, 09:45
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Head of the Ukraine intelligence believes the war will be over at the end of the year.

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-w...-year-12612320
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Old 14th May 2022, 09:48
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Head of the Ukraine intelligence believes the war will be over at the end of the year.

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-w...-year-12612320
Understandable, by that time, Russia and maybe Ukraine are depleted of canon fodder and the metal they need.
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Old 14th May 2022, 09:49
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Originally Posted by WideScreen
I don't know the person, nor did I look up his history, thought this publication is obviously not in line with the official Russian/China state propaganda "guidelines".

Let us be realistic, there are tons of journalists, who write a different opinion, than their personal one. For example, Fox News. And what about nearly half of the US Congress ? In private, they condemn Jan 6, though publicly "defend" or even wave off what happened.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...russian-troops
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Old 14th May 2022, 11:13
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It looks like the farmer attacked by the Russian aircraft has survived all be it seriously injured.

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Old 14th May 2022, 13:51
  #5494 (permalink)  
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Russia started the war with a total of around 180 BTG, of which 120 have been committed to the war so far.

Of the above they have to date lost around 53 BTG worth of men, IFV and tanks and continue to lose about 2/3s of a BTG a day. So in just over another week they will have lost over 30% of their total army and 50% of those committed to the war.

Worse, those remaining have been reconstituted with conscripts and forced recruits* and social media is rife with stories of Luhansk conscripts retreating to the Russian border and being threatened with execution to turn them back - and Russian reservists refusing to sign-up to go to Ukraine as they’ve heard the news and, without martial law or mobilisation, they can’t be made to go.

*Being issued with 1914 vintage Mosin–Nagants rifles and limited rounds per man - presumably so they they present a low risk of turning them on the Russian officers…

As the quality of the troops go down and the number of component officers being lost goes up (no NCOs), their loss rate vs the UKR army goes up - its now estimated at between 5:1 and 7:1.

Their is a military calculation as to the point at which an army will collapse into full scale retreat or surrender, a Lanchester Square collapse, and the current online forecasts for this to occur within the current invading force vary between an optimistic end of June and pessimistic mid-August.

e.g.

Moisin Nagant Rifle.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mosin–Nagant

Last edited by ORAC; 14th May 2022 at 14:11.
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Old 14th May 2022, 15:56
  #5495 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Head of the Ukraine intelligence believes the war will be over at the end of the year.
That would certainly be good, but there is a historical precedence for predicting "it'll all be over by Christmas"
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Old 14th May 2022, 16:42
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Originally Posted by langleybaston
I would encourage it. Go for it.

With what?
I tend to agree, they would soon find themselves flat on their backside, never mind back foot…
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Old 14th May 2022, 16:47
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Mortars and how they may integrate with aviation.
The Drive has a piece about laser guided mortar rounds.
Some decades ago, the 'copperhead' artillery round (Indirect fire) could be lased/designated by the sneaky recon types.

Aviation Content Follows!
I can imagine an airborne IR targeting pod and these laser guided mortar shells working in tandem to make for some very lethal strikes using indirect fires on a variety of targets. I remember in the mid 1990's discussing the future of warfare with a USMC colonel, whose take was that the Marines needed to leave their M-1 Abrams to the Army and get with capabilities like guided mortars and 'bright' munitions to attack enemies from the top down. I daresay that his vision has at least in part come true, and I understand that the USMC divested themselves of tanks (and I am aware of a number of their UAV initiatives, but that's off topic for this discussion).
I wonder what the Russians are using to guide these laser guided mortar rounds to target: ground based or air based laser targeting kit? (And maybe both).
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Old 14th May 2022, 18:23
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Seven-feet long missile, wider than the barrel, and not lined up.
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Old 14th May 2022, 18:36
  #5499 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Petit-Lion
Seven-feet long missile, wider than the barrel, and not lined up.
They did include 3 sabots though if you enlarge the image,
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Old 14th May 2022, 18:48
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Originally Posted by Petit-Lion
Seven-feet long missile, wider than the barrel, and not lined up.
Are you referring to this?

See the linked article, from which the photo was linked. Are you pretending that this mortar does not exist, or that the projectile was photo shopped into the picture?
I am not sure how you arrived at "wider than the barrel" and would like you to explain that to me. Thanks.
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