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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 20th Jun 2022, 08:07
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Zmeiny Island

Zmeiny Island / Snake island struck overnight, hit about 4am
MLRS/himars. lets hope for some sunny Sat imagery
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Old 20th Jun 2022, 09:19
  #6422 (permalink)  
 
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If this is going to drag on years as suggested, I do wonder at what point the West will need to start to rearm in a serious way, one to resupply Ukraine, two to replenish western stocks as well as increasing our capability.
It's a bit of a quandry, drip feed the country which sadly appears the case now, meaning they never gain the advantage, or give them sufficent to drive Russia out.

It is rather Ironic that NATO tends to rely on airpower over artillery, hence the low stocks of artillery available, and has taught Ukraine the NATO style of warfare but in the same sense refuses to provide airpower to the Ukrainians.
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Old 20th Jun 2022, 10:16
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Re the Kerch strait bridge, sabotage would be a great option. The Ukrainians could even offer a bounty (if they haven't done so already) to tempt any disaffected Russians - a million Dollars, a new identity to anyone plus a place in history for anyone who could drop a span.

One does wonder how on-the-game the various troops are who are guarding it? Its one long, windswept ol' bridge - the hours must just drag by...
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Old 20th Jun 2022, 10:28
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
If this is going to drag on years as suggested, I do wonder at what point the West will need to start to rearm in a serious way, one to resupply Ukraine, two to replenish western stocks as well as increasing our capability.
It's a bit of a quandry, drip feed the country which sadly appears the case now, meaning they never gain the advantage, or give them sufficent to drive Russia out.

It is rather Ironic that NATO tends to rely on airpower over artillery, hence the low stocks of artillery available, and has taught Ukraine the NATO style of warfare but in the same sense refuses to provide airpower to the Ukrainians.
Boris's offer to train up their reserves could be significant in all of this, assuming it can deliver the numbers he said (a big if, I admit). Ukraine will need much more trained manpower to launch serious counteroffensives. The logistics tail alone will require thousands of people.

Re artillery, I read that the US had requested Bulgaria(?) to restart production of 152mm ammunition. Also, the increasing deployment of higher accuracy 155mm NATO systems will presumably mean that ammunition stocks can be used much more effectively i.e. none of this 2% effectiveness
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Old 20th Jun 2022, 10:50
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Meanwhile the Russians are having ammuntion problems, they should be more careful what pictures they upload no matter how old, as it may come back to haunt them lol.

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Old 20th Jun 2022, 10:59
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Aviation content, one would say enjoy................... but given the current situation perhaps not.

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Old 20th Jun 2022, 11:31
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
If this is going to drag on years as suggested, I do wonder at what point the West will need to start to rearm in a serious way, one to resupply Ukraine, two to replenish western stocks as well as increasing our capability.
It's a bit of a quandry, drip feed the country which sadly appears the case now, meaning they never gain the advantage, or give them sufficent to drive Russia out.
.

Surely that point has already been passed for items like Stingers, Javelins, NLAWs, 155 mm shells, . There is then the question of munitions for the Soviet weaponry used by the Ukranians: does one assume that they need 10 years of shells for T 72's and give orders/finance increased production to the one production plant ( Bulgaria ? ) or do they weigh chances of Ukraine losing/ switching to western equipment.

I wonder to what extent NATO militaries/governments are making internal calculations that giving ( if it is given ) £ 10 000 000 of weapons to Ukraine saves another £ 5 000 000 on the defence budget.
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Old 20th Jun 2022, 11:45
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The USA was looking at the manufacture of Russian weaponary and artillery shells that was due to start this year, I don't know what happened with that plan.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michael...h=5acc7e1173d2
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Old 20th Jun 2022, 12:29
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It appears some Russian oil rigs off Crimea may have been hit too

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Old 20th Jun 2022, 13:00
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I wonder to what extent NATO militaries/governments are making internal calculations that giving ( if it is given ) £ 10 000 000 of weapons to Ukraine saves another £ 5 000 000 on the defence budget.
£10,000,000 plus to Ukraine now may well save multi billions on the defence etc. budget if it prevents a larger and wider scale conflict a little later.
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Old 20th Jun 2022, 13:46
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Reports are coming that three Russian service men were shot at in a Kherson restaurant by unknown people. Two dead one wounded. Earlier this month there was an explosion at a restaurant used by Russian military.
A few days ago there was a bomb attack against an Ukrainian collaborator in Kherson.

the areas "liberated by the Russian Armed forces" are starting to show their appreciation of said rapists and violators of sovereignty.

https://bunatimes.com/world/24218.html
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Old 20th Jun 2022, 13:54
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Russia’s foreign ministry on Monday demanded the immediate lifting of Lithuania’s “openly hostile” restrictions on the rail transit of EU-sanctioned goods to Moscow’s exclave of Kaliningrad, wedged between Lithuania and Poland.“If in the near future cargo transit between the Kaliningrad region and the rest of the territory of the Russian Federation through Lithuania is not restored in full, then Russia reserves the right to take actions to protect its national interests,” the ministry said in a statement.
Well, if ever there was a trigger to draw NATO in...
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Old 20th Jun 2022, 14:25
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Originally Posted by Buster Hyman
Well, if ever there was a trigger to draw NATO in...
the russkies are already "rationalizing" that they can go for Lithuania and it would be NATO's fault.
As a background the former Russian PM said just last week that the Baltics would be next. Also the rhetorics in Belarus has pointed towards Suwalki gap. Plus many other hints by russkies towards that direction. It most probably is just huffing and puffing by Kremlin but being the unpredictable themselves...

Originally Posted by RG.ru

20.06.2022 10:59
Senator Klimov: With the blockade of Kaliningrad, Lithuania "knocked out the chair" on which it sat in the European Union
Author: Victoria Ilyina

If the situation with the transport blockade of the Kaliningrad region is not corrected in the European Union, then they themselves will disavow for Russia the documents on Lithuania's membership in the EU. This was stated by the head of the temporary commission of the Federation Council for the protection of state sovereignty and the prevention of interference in the internal affairs of the Russian Federation, Andrei Klimov.
In his Telegram channel, the senator drew attention to the fact that Lithuania decided to unilaterally stop almost half of the cargo going by rail through it in the direction of Kaliningrad on the 20th anniversary of the joint statement by Russia and the EU on transit between the Kaliningrad region and the rest of the territory of the Russian Federation. "Thus, Vilnius 'knocked out the chair' on which it has been sitting all these years as an EU member state," the politician believes.

"And the European Union, if it does not immediately correct Vilnius' impudent trick, will itself disavow for us the legitimacy of all documents on Lithuania's membership in the EU and will untie our hands to solve the Kaliningrad transit problem created by Lithuania by any means we choose," Klimov wrote.

In his opinion, the unacceptable behavior of Vilnius also jeopardizes the entire NATO bloc, "which de jure begins an unacceptable blockade of a subject of the Russian Federation through the hands of one of its member countries." "The latter can be assessed as direct aggression against Russia, literally forcing us to immediately resort to proper self-defense," the legislator concluded.
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Old 20th Jun 2022, 14:37
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Originally Posted by Beamr
Reports are coming that three Russian service men were shot at in a Kherson restaurant by unknown people. Two dead one wounded. Earlier this month there was an explosion at a restaurant used by Russian military.
A few days ago there was a bomb attack against an Ukrainian collaborator in Kherson.

the areas "liberated by the Russian Armed forces" are starting to show their appreciation of said rapists and violators of sovereignty.

https://bunatimes.com/world/24218.html
How long I wonder before the Russians pull X number of civilians into the street and shoot them in retaliation?
History repeats itself in the most terrible of ways.
On a lighter note maybe the UK can send the Ukrainians exploding dog turds?
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Old 20th Jun 2022, 15:28
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Old 20th Jun 2022, 15:28
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Panic buying in Kaliningrad..

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Old 20th Jun 2022, 16:03
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Soviet Russian commander in Ukraine has yet again been replaced, the butcher of Syria was sent off (via window, who knows). A sign of panic to change the leader on a monthly basis. Just makes me wonder who will be in charge in July...


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Old 20th Jun 2022, 19:19
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Originally Posted by uxb99
How long I wonder before the Russians pull X number of civilians into the street and shoot them in retaliation?
History repeats itself in the most terrible of ways.
On a lighter note maybe the UK can send the Ukrainians exploding dog turds?
uxb99 l am curious about the point of your post. Unless l have misunderstood, you seem to be saying that Ukranians should not resist Russian aggression lest they suffer worse retaliation.

Every bully from the school playground all the way up to state terrorists like to tell their victims not to resist or they will only suffer more. Please make clear how you would judge an occupier who murdered innocent civilians in retribution for the justifiable killing of a despised an destructive invader. OK or not OK...?
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Old 20th Jun 2022, 19:51
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Originally Posted by Beamr
the russkies are already "rationalizing" that they can go for Lithuania and it would be NATO's fault.
As a background the former Russian PM said just last week that the Baltics would be next. Also the rhetorics in Belarus has pointed towards Suwalki gap. Plus many other hints by russkies towards that direction. It most probably is just huffing and puffing by Kremlin but being the unpredictable themselves...
Whenever the Western allies do something that the Kremlin recognises as potentially effective it starts talking about how NATO/EU is escalating the conflict in a new and dangerous way. And why not? It costs them nothing and it might even persuade someone to back off.

As a litmus test for what actions the west might take that are effective such a Kremlin reaction is quite useful.
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Old 20th Jun 2022, 22:06
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Originally Posted by Fitter2
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£10,000,000 plus to Ukraine now may well save multi billions on the defence etc. budget if it prevents a larger and wider scale conflict a little later.
Quite so. The simple maths is that the cost of the bullet will remain the same, the cost to a nation in lives lost comes back to the donor country instead of having a currently motivated and evidently capable fighting force that is pleading for the support. The damage to Ukraine was today estimated in infrastructure losses due to Russia of around USD B800, which is considerable and is an amount that the Russian Federation may well be forced to foot, subject to how weaselly our lords and masters are in dealing with an aggressor criminal enterprise nation. Right now, there is around USD T 1.0 in frozen assets all up of the same kleptocrats and state. Now that is the damage that Russia has inflicted in 4 months, on a relatively small section of turf, that had a decent amount of infrastructure, roads, utilities, services, public and private buildings, businesses and production facilities. All of which are a discounted cost relative to any EU nation that would become the next target of Vlad's team. just Lithuania alone would come close to that order of magnitude in losses with any invasion of their sovereign territory, and in a much shorter time frame. Rest of the Baltics are similar, and it would be irrational to take action simply against one when that triggers the mutual defence articles to come into play, so the whole of the Baltics as an economic loss is an outcome, and the whole deal doesn't look great for Poland or even Germany to avoid conventional attacks to minimize defensive responses. Whatever is in Vlad's mind is his alone to know, but the simple thing is that the downside of not stopping Russia under Vlad in Ukraine is a vastly more expensive proposition, so pennies spent in giving generously to Ukraine to defeat Russia in the field today is a bargain. Rough order.... 15:1 return on investment in a conventional outcome, and 1000:1 if some billy goat starts flicking gifts of sunshine around to make a fashion statement.

[Aviation content] There are gallons of UH-1s sitting in the desert; there are scores of A-10's sitting there as well. These are not long-lead training aircraft to provide motivated defenders. There are complete squadrons of OH-6s and OH58s that can be returned to service, and have TOW/mini guns added to their sides. The helos don't have great survivability in direct attack against any competent AAA/SAM threats, but we are in a new world of tactics at present. Ukraine has been provided some extended range capable munitions (even where they then have had the fire control systems crippled.... they can fight for us but they can't be trusted to protect weapon secrets from the Russians...). To provide targeting data for these, the troops are in range of the Russian forces around the front lines, where the greatest targets are in the rear areas, extended range data linking of survivable drones would seem to be worthwhile; interdicting the Red's supply lines is the least cost way to take pressure off the guy in the trench.

Every bullet, bomb, tank, helicopter and plane that we hold back will be regretted later if the Russians find the ability to organize themselves into a coordinated, disciplined fighting force and attack in concentration against the defenders. While it appears that Russia is also being machiavellian in their "support" for DNR/DPR, "volunteers" with their provisioning of antiques for weapons, scraps for rations and no body protection, and no casualty care worthy of the term, they may realise that the bulk of their "manpower" is being so compromised, that along with the abuse of their own conscripts as the bulk of their army, that they need to resolve their internal manpower paradoxes if they really want to defeat the defenders. That is also a pact with the devil, Russia has managed to alienate a substantial portion of the people that they supposedly are acting to "protect", the type of friends that means you don't need enemies.

"Macron, if you are listening... " ...there is no such thing as appeasement of dictators, and by now no one should have any illusion that Russia is anything other than a kleptocratic dictatorship.

Give generously, but give now, not after this crosses the next border.
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IMHO, E&OE



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